Midland Enthusiast

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@ALikhodedov @UndervaluedOnG China did find replacement Saudi cargoes from west gulf too

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@gbrew24 it’s cheap as they begin to realize that they need to reprice to compete with the spot bbls which were sold ahead of them. And in good fashion, place a positive spin on it.

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@gbrew24 Nailed it Greg… ironically that level would begin to compete with reports of Basra’s at -$15isb give or take a couple bucks

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@SpartaFreight Hey Mike, love ur content - keep up the good work. Just wanted to point out that the EFS depreciation actually makes the AG grades less competitive for arbitrage out, a result of the bbls carving in prior sessions. Stronger Dubai, weaker Brent.

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@RedDogT3 Hi Scott, great points to be made, but i have a question - in Feb RSP was leading the way to new all-time highs. But in this v-shaped recovery, RSP is currently lagging. do you read into that in any way?

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@biancoresearch I yes Jim, but this is balanced against some run cuts.. of course

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@chigrl @DiMartinoBooth @business WTI is not over brent. April WTI is over May brent, but when looking at the natural same-month WTI-Brent curve, brent remains higher than WTI by $5 or so. April brent is valued by the physical CFD curve at this point, which is showing extreme backwardation vs. May brent

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@ericweinstein I say..

I’ll take the devil I know vs the one I don’t
Else
Vote for VP

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@PauloMacro this was also met by a 30mm dump in crude from france due to strikes

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@RedDogT3 Check out the bull flag on $DIS, haven’t touched it since 2021, is it time???

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@joshyoung Josh has your view changed with flat price 1% higher today than pre-attack? And does the margin rationalization via gas cracks remain a concern for the medium term?

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@KEDM_COM When Z22/Z23 reaches $18-20 backward and $4.00 in the front, you end up with only $1.20 Z23/F24 values.

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@KEDM_COM No no no, you're looking at a contract chart not a continuation chart. Timespreads were around $4.00 last year for q/u.

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@The_Real_Fly Another version:
No one was short Oil, w/ rates on the rise the spec longs began to take profit, the gamma picks up, market makers began to hedge faster, those late to the party joined the selling as weakening refining margins cast doubts on consumer demand.

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@alphacharts365 I reckon this looks similar to $aapl as well, scary if both are true

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@RedDogT3 On a day like today where we're well outside 2stdev bands, and extended from the 8d, it feels prudent to sell call spreads above

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@BobbyAx99479964 @BrynneKKelly and Marathon had a fire 2d prior, its reasonable to stand that less gasoline supply = less crude demand

[Midland Enthusiast @MikeHolgui59130]

@OmarMora1es If you offer something, doesn’t that mean you’re a seller? Wouldn’t a bid be more appropriate nomenclature?