Mike Kimel

1. Many things are true which I really wish were not.
2. When life hands you marmels, make marmelade.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

I had Gemini graph the annualized growth in real GDP per capita by decade and it appears below.

To add a bit of context, if we had maintained the same growth rate as in the mid-1960s all the way to today, real GDP per capita would be about twice as high as it is actually is. Put a different way: we’d be twice as rich. The miracle of compounding cuts both ways.

It’s worth noting:
1. Tax rates went from 90% to 70% in 64 and dropped below 50% in 82.
2. The Immigration Act was in 65.
3. A bunch of Civil Rights laws were passed in the 60s.
4. By almost every measure, more Americans are educated now than at any time in the past.
5. The cost of transporting goods and people, or of communicating across distances, has fallen dramatically over time.

Since about the 1960s we’ve fired just about every silver bullet each political party was touting. And by a really odd coincidence, that’s when the economy peaked in the post war era and started shrinking.

Now it’s possible these silver bullets worked. But that means if we hadn’t fired them, the economy would have collapsed by even more, and it isn’t clear why that would be the case. Nobody looks at 1965 and says “that’s the point where we rescued the economy from oblivion.

Alternatively, one or more of those silver bullets aren’t silver bullets at all. In fact, they’re actually a tremendous drag on growth so bad they are overwhelming the positive effects of everything else we’ve done.

That doesn’t make those ideas bad. Some things are worth doing even if they have a net cost. Furthermore,a good idea can have poor outcomes if it’s badly executed, and could turn out to be a silver bullet if done right.

In any case, it’s worth figuring out what we screwed up and why the economy is 50% smaller than if we had maintained our mid-1960s trajectory because the compounding, positive and negative, will continue.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@wokestalinism I read Das Kapital. It’s turgid, the math doesn’t work, and it’s pretty clear Marx knew it too. As I was slogging my way through I came to a realization: if Marxists could do math they wouldn’t be Marxists.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@TGTM_Official I’m so old I remember Mitt Romney’s candidacy was almost derailed after he mentioned putting his dog on the roof during family road trips.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@MattPolProf @klhoughton US policy in Brazil went from opposing the left during the Cold War (eg, funding Goulart’s opponents in 64) to USAID giving money to civil-society organizations whose agendas overlap with the most extreme pieces of the Brazilian left (eg, parts of the PT-aligned NGO ecosystem).

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@tedfrank @Steve_Sailer @Dickthbutcher @shipwreckedcrew Brazil & Argentina had commercially viable leagues before their top players started moving to Europe in the 80s-90s. Wealthy European teams don’t import as many Mexican prospects because those lottery tickets simply haven’t paid off in anywhere near the same way.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@wmedmonds @EchoesofWarYT @jonkessler20 Trying to edit a sentence down I ended up transposing 9,000 and lost… sorry about that… need to proof-read more.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@wmedmonds @EchoesofWarYT @jonkessler20 We 9,000 lost banks between 1929 & 1933. Australia, Britain, New Zealand & Canada lost 0. Italy lost 0 with an asterisk. Austria 1, Japan lost fewer than 20, Germany, France, Belgium, Holland & Switzerland a few dozen. Enough specific examples to equal everything?

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@wmedmonds @EchoesofWarYT @jonkessler20 “Every other major economy on earth recovered faster than the United States did under FDR. Sit with that.” That suggests a comparison with other countries is valid. So I picked another country. I could have picked a few more.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

His case rests on bad assumptions. From 29-33 we lost 46% of our industrial production & 9,000 banks. For Britain it was 23% and zero. He’s comparing recovery from a tonsillectomy to recovery from Stage 4 cancer and arguing which patient’s doctor is better on that basis.

Think about a more recent example. The fact that Palo Alto recovered from the 2007 housing meltdown much, much faster than Youngstown isn’t a sign that California’s housing policies were orders of magnitude smarter than Ohio’s.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@mahmud2008 @RealShahriqKhan I don’t believe in either the Bible or the Quran but when I ask Muslims about the latter’s 9:30 I get assertions with zero evidence that once somewhere there were Jews who believed someone called Uzair was the son of God. Either evidence is required or it isn’t.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@meredithheron @TimH_B We must be using very different versions of Gemini. For curiosity’s sake, could you provide a screenshot and a link?

https://t.co/47fF7wqV6w

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@misfitpatriot_ @jonkessler20 The TACO epithet didn’t arise because people think Trump changes his mind on big issues. It’s arose because even on those issues on which he seemingly goes all in, he backs down when pushback is non-negligible. His 2016 campaign promises are a list of examples.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@TerraAustralisF @MJRabble_Rouser IIRC they don’t actually get to the coast in Mad Max 2.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

I didn’t write that brown people are lazy or want to be poor. I did write that polychronic cultures coordinate badly.

And it’s a cultural trait, not an inherent one. For example, pre-Meiji the Japanese were seen as lacking punctuality, but now on average they’re hyperpunctual.

I also didn’t call anyone a racist and cannot see how any normal person would conclude that I did.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@Kaz2264 @klhoughton @mehdirhasan A while back I was reading about the Safed Massacre and found 5 similar events (Jews massacred by Arabs) in Safed going back 600 years, and it is likely some were missed in the historical record. When exactly did the Jewish refugees show up and when were they welcomed?

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@jccfergie @Jaaa3C I spent 15 years in South America. To me differences in outcome between those countries & the US come down to one thing: in the US if a group of reasonably successful people agree to meet at 2 PM on a Tuesday 4 weeks out, they will all be there on time & ready.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@jonkessler20 @timstarr2001 Wanting something & doing something are 2 very different things. In 2000 GW promised he would pay off the debt. For that matter, so did Trump in 2016.

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

@shipwreckedcrew @jonkessler20 It’s like people think he told the Iranians “help is on the way.”

[Mike Kimel @MikeKimel]

He started being viewed as ineffective when he didn’t even try to implement his 2016 campaign promises. Think Mexico paying for the Wall, an improved replacement for the ACA, a 4% to 6% growth rate, paying off the debt, Medicare drug negotiations & even “lock her up.”

Whether you like those promises or didn’t, they were promises and nothing that could credibly be described as effort went into fulfilling any of them.