Aaron Miller

US Strategist (it’s a real job!), father, runner, reader.

[Carnegie Politika @CEIP_Politika]

Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart, writes @Stanovaya: https://t.co/VBxLGy2eqK

[Archive Warfare @archivewarfare]

Restored WWII Combat: The Pacific War. Fighting The Kamikaze.
The brutal clash between US Navy fleets and the Japanese Kamikaze. This restored 3-minute trailer captures the terrifying reality of aerial combat in 1944 and 1945.

[Jack Watling @Jack_Watling]

Statecraft: The New Rules of Power in a Divided World, out now - https://t.co/vmWAPrMejV

[Peter Frankopan @peterfrankopan]

Iran is seeing some of the most serious protests since 1979. Assessing what is actually happening is extremely difficult: internet and phones are down; Starlink is being jammed, thanks (presumably) to tools from allies 1/6

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

An absolutely insane conversation happened during today’s 2025 Concordia Annual Summit in New York City, probably one of the most consequential discussions ever regarding the Global War on Terrorism, between Ret. Gen. David H. Petraeus, the Former Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and Director of the CIA, and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who was captured in Iraq around 2006 by U.S. Forces under Gen. Petraeus as an active member of Al-Qaeda.

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

1/5
This very good FT article on China's inability stop expanding its already-excess reliance on manufacturing makes what I think are two especially important points.

https://t.co/ztFxDRO5oM via @ft

[Adam Tooze @adam_tooze]

Vietnam has replaced China as the major source of US imports for many simpler manufactured goods.

[Foreign Affairs @ForeignAffairs]

The war in Ukraine is now “an existential struggle for Russia,” writes @LawDavF. Despite having no clear path to victory, Putin has refused calls for a negotiated cease-fire—and doubled down on fighting.
https://t.co/7fXmccL4mI

[Mark Galeotti @MarkGaleotti]

Why Putin’s elites keep dying
Or, 'is Putin's social contract with his elites going out of the window'... My take on recent arrests/suicides for @SpecCoffeeHouse
https://t.co/vxTecOZB0T

[Lawrence Freedman @LawDavF]

Why Putin’s persists with his war despite his failure to achieve any of his political objectives. Just because he is stubborn does not mean that he can win. (£/free trial) https://t.co/bCRca2AyOU

[Josh Wolfe @wolfejosh]

6/ Apple's take is these models ARE NOT reasoning.

they're super expensive pattern matchers that break as soon as we step outside their training distribution...

[Neil Thomas 牛犇 @neilthomas123]

Is Chinese politics a one-man show under Xi Jinping? Not quite

Xi is in charge but is delegating more day-to-day policymaking to top allies

Li Qiang is a major beneficiary; China's premier matters again for business and diplomacy

My latest in @ChinaFile + @ForeignPolicy

1/10

[Aaron Miller @Miller3W]

“peace depends not on a military victory, which simply sets the stage for a rematch, but on compromises that allow all sides to live together.”

https://t.co/lfP5n7eErl

[Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby @USWPColby]

We at DOD are committed to providing America's armed forces everything they need to support President Trump's pragmatic, realistic diplomacy, ably summarized yesterday by @DeputySecState in an important speech in Dayton, Ohio. https://t.co/STpW5hFan8 1/

[Leonardo Rizzo @LnrdRizzo]

How we "guessed" the Pope using network science: inside the cardinal network. A study by me, Beppe Soda and Alessandro Iorio. Article: https://t.co/xQ0fTmpVxb @Unibocconi

[Cait Conley @CaitforNewYork]

Stop 2 on the Coffee with Cait Listening Tour took us to Peekskill Coffee House, where new friends told me about the struggle small businesses are facing from the tariffs and concerns over the future of our country, and reaffirmed why it is so important that we fight and win for the better future that all Americans deserve.

Hope to see you at the next one!

[PSRM Journal @PSRMJournal]

🇲🇽Mexico's war on drugs is characterized by small, local groups rather than large cartels.

➡️Using a new dataset, @JaneEsberg shows that traditional drug war strategies, like kingpin removals, are correlated with the emergence of smaller groups https://t.co/cWlOoDnl8d #FirstView

[Jonathon P Sine @JonathonPSine]

It immediately becomes evident why Caro’s book on Robert Moses is considered a masterpiece.

What a story teller