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I'm a software developer with 30 years of experience.
For the past 3 months, my partner and I have been building crypto prediction market bots full-time.
BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP - real money, real trades, real losses.
Here's what I've learned: almost everything you see about Polymarket on this app is fake.
- Screenshots of massive wins with no context.
- "Alpha" threads that are just engagement farming.
- People posting equations they don't understand to look smart.
- Accounts claiming 90% win rates that conveniently never show their losing trades.
I'm not here to sell you a course, a signal group or a copy trading app.
I'm going to post a series sharing everything I wish I knew before I started: the platform mechanics, the math, the strategies that FAILED (most of them), and the few that actually survived real trading. Every claim backed by actual trade counts and P&L.
No hype. No "alpha." Just what 3 months of full-time bot building with real money actually looks like.
Follow along if you want the version nobody's selling.
@Clark10x They are lying… you need a lot of data and need a lot of research to figure out profitable strategies. I’ve been at it for months and just figuring it out as a master programmer.
Paper is nothing like real trading in any strategy. And -41$ is a very small drawdown too
@tonyprediction@bored2boar Back test means nothing for an arb bot… it will be deceiving until you actually run and see if you can find fills (spoiler: you can’t find enough to be profitable)
I'm a software developer with 30 years of experience.
For the past 3 months, my partner and I have been building crypto prediction market bots full-time.
BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP - real money, real trades, real losses.
Here's what I've learned: almost everything you see about Polymarket on this app is fake.
- Screenshots of massive wins with no context.
- "Alpha" threads that are just engagement farming.
- People posting equations they don't understand to look smart.
- Accounts claiming 90% win rates that conveniently never show their losing trades.
I'm not here to sell you a course, a signal group or a copy trading app.
I'm going to post a series sharing everything I wish I knew before I started: the platform mechanics, the math, the strategies that FAILED (most of them), and the few that actually survived real trading. Every claim backed by actual trade counts and P&L.
No hype. No "alpha." Just what 3 months of full-time bot building with real money actually looks like.
Follow along if you want the version nobody's selling.
Note this is just part one of the series… will be going through it all starting with explaining the basics of prediction markets and differences between Polymarket and Kalshi for the crypto markets
I'm a software developer with 30 years of experience.
For the past 3 months, my partner and I have been building crypto prediction market bots full-time.
BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP - real money, real trades, real losses.
Here's what I've learned: almost everything you see about Polymarket on this app is fake.
- Screenshots of massive wins with no context.
- "Alpha" threads that are just engagement farming.
- People posting equations they don't understand to look smart.
- Accounts claiming 90% win rates that conveniently never show their losing trades.
I'm not here to sell you a course, a signal group or a copy trading app.
I'm going to post a series sharing everything I wish I knew before I started: the platform mechanics, the math, the strategies that FAILED (most of them), and the few that actually survived real trading. Every claim backed by actual trade counts and P&L.
No hype. No "alpha." Just what 3 months of full-time bot building with real money actually looks like.
Follow along if you want the version nobody's selling.
@cryptoskraken@Axel_bitblaze69 Yea this entire post is silly… using “AI” to run your Python scripts essentially and just burning tokens. I don’t really beleive it either
@bl888m Latency is the issue and getting fills … you’re going to need way higher than 70% win rate and you can’t use python. This is a nice practice but it’s not realistic
I like you, Alex, but you also are guilty of taking a lot of money from different companies in your posts that you admit about… will you start disclosing every company that pays you anything as well?
I find it a slippery slope to start suspending accounts, even though I do think people should say what is actually advertising.