@hisarchive lol I’m super bullish on my $SIVE position too.
> EU macro positive
> $LITE + laser group up 4-6% overnight trading from InP bottleneck easing
> possible Nasdaq listing timeline announcement today
We’ll see what happens.
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Just as a recap, these were all my core European longs:
1. $SIVE
2. $LPK
3. $SOI
4. $RPI
5. $IQE
6. $ALRIB
7. $XFAB
Sivers: As you know by now, core laser chokepoint over next generation photonics, from 1.6T pluggables to CPO.
Embedded in many hyperscaler suppliers from Jabil to Ayar. Should go brrr 2027 but markets are forward looking, so ramps + qualifications should get priced in now.
LPK Laser - Glass core substrate "monopoly" with LIDE.
"More than 80% of major global players have selected our equipment for process validation, learning and scaling to mass production"
Soitec - Silicon photonics SoI substrate pure monopoly while coming out of legacy drag segments.
Raspberry Pi - Was my fun idea around Raspberry Pis being used for AI hardware deployments.
Previously this thing was mainly educational or hobby boards, but now used for edge/local AI. Just thought revenue increase would be extremely material and it played out well.
IQE - Critical epiwafer player for your Western photonics like Macom, Tower, Lumentum, and others.
Was kinda going under, but thought their latent capacity relative to Landmark was undervalued.
Also given how important it was, I thought that your downstream players + Govs wouldn't let it go under, so it was more of a moonshot idea earlier in the year.
Lot more derisked now, very important.
Riber - Kinda monopoly in the MBE space, exposure to Quantum / quantum dot + silicon photonics.
Found out from OSINT help from a friend latentvalue that Microsoft Quantum was buying their machines, so this was direct hyperscaler validation + kinda de-risked at current MCs.
XFab - SiC foundry backed by EU/US CHIPS Act with power semi upside. (152% Y/Y growth for their sic vertical).
Main growth was their silicon photonics foundry past 2027 that's getting evaled by nvidia. And that they're leading Europe's value chain efforts in photonics, kinda like an early tower semi.
We'll see how this plays out, thought power semi exposure + low P/B would derisk the company until they scale their photbunchonics efforts.
From my own personal thoughts:
Out of the maybe $SOI has already been re-rated the most? But I'm holding anyway.
$LPK and $ALRIB I think are still undervalued despite their monopolies.
$RPI is just kinda seeing how things go at this point, would be hilarious if they ended up like a mini nvidia for low end edge ai.
$IQE probably has a long way to go given new tower long term agreement, alongside macom. And if they convert latent capacity, I still think it has a chance of rerating like landmark.
$XFAB idk if im missing something or are markets missing something. you have nvidia as a direct eval of their silicon photonics foundry, and it's trading below replacement P/B. i think im right though.
$SIVE I see has the highest upside out of all of them given laser company ability to vertically integrate, acquire companies downstream to make their lasers more valuable, etc. Just like coherent/lumentum.
There's like 1-2 more random ones that aren't really material, but just in general.
These are the ones I've liked the most.
$SIVE is the next SIVE.
Don’t think you’ll find another company.
That’s qualified and likely primary/sole source with:
- $JBL and other pluggable hyperscaler suppliers
- Ayar and the $NVDA NVLink CPO ecosystems
While being the foundational reference laser for $GFS and pluggable/CPO/NPO deployments.
That hyperscalers like $AMD and others use, at current valuations.
Even $POET buys $SIVE lasers and Poet is about the same valuation just off having one $50m purchase agreement.
Amount of hyperscaler suppliers for 2027 into 2028 is just ridiculous.
From the general meeting today in a few hours, we’ll hopefully see NASDAQ listing timelines confirmed.
So they can have room for M&A to TAM expansion and to make each laser they sell more valuable.
Following what $LITE did to grow into a $75B company.
@JaaidevV I personally like $SIVE, usually the same names keep on compounding like $SNDK if they’re important to AI?
I’m not selling a share, since it looks like we’re only at the start of the next supercycle.
It’s been officially 3 months since I posted my $SIVE long thesis back at 4 SEK.
This idea is now up ~1900%…
With many US institutions from JPM to Fidelity only recently entering positions.
Probably my 2nd greatest thesis of all time after $AXTI.
Did you listen anon?
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Morgan Stanley: $NVDA has denied the reports 800V DC has been pushed back.
Recent SemiAnalysis reports run contrary to our own checks at Computex.
Bro this has gotta be the dumbest CPO/800V selloff I’ve seen.
Since the selloff from their claim $MU had 0 share of Nvidia HBM4
Yep, Blackrock has now entered $SIVE positions as passive owners following index listing.
Fidelity Research has shown up as starting direct positions of Sivers too.
Remember when JP Morgan showed up last month with small positions…
Then bought ~5.25% of the company?
This looks like US institutions validated Sivers’s position in photonics and are trying to accumulate positions.
We're pleased to announce that Sivers has received a new $8.2M production order from @allspaceltd for Ka-band Beamforming ICs.
The order underscores Sivers' growing momentum in defense and commercial satcom, where our BFICs are helping enable next-generation multi-orbit satellite communications platforms.
For full details visit: https://t.co/QDfIQf4orV
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A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE:
Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (allspace).
This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication.
The bigger implication is not the contract size:
But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their allspace acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial).
Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract.
Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector lasers...
This win aside, I'm expecting more volume ramps to be coming soon as well from their photonics side (looking at you Jabil + other pluggable makers)
I think the implications of JP Morgan's disclosure of buying 5.25%+ of $SIVE is a lot greater than people think.
> $135M is pennies to US institutions. They can easily acquire 25% with their capital.
They're just constrained by the amount of float that's available from retail to buy.
> Signals to other institutions that other large institutions are buying up the float.
Which triggers more institutional interest.
> Given float is heavily shorted by Swedish Hedge Funds and random algorithmic ones.
If large US institutions like JP Morgan are starting to buying the float, it's a blaring signal to start and cover.
Of course, most of all, this is validating thesis of giving ideas to retail first to frontrun the institutions + the next CPO supercycle.
Surprised $SIVE is only up 3.36% off the news JP Morgan (institutional) bought 5%+ ownership of Sivers.
Just in the last month alone.
First major signal of major institutional buying of the float for Sivers.
Sigh.
I keep telling retail + Swedish Hedge Funds how important $SIVE is to CPO, but people don’t listen.
Enough retail holders got shaken off, and
now JP Morgan managed to buy up a massive stake in Sivers (purely institutional).
JP Morgan went from .4% ownership last month to 5%+ ownership this month…