I've never felt this much behind as a programmer. The profession is being dramatically refactored as the bits contributed by the programmer are increasingly sparse and between. I have a sense that I could be 10X more powerful if I just properly string together what has become available over the last ~year and a failure to claim the boost feels decidedly like skill issue. There's a new programmable layer of abstraction to master (in addition to the usual layers below) involving agents, subagents, their prompts, contexts, memory, modes, permissions, tools, plugins, skills, hooks, MCP, LSP, slash commands, workflows, IDE integrations, and a need to build an all-encompassing mental model for strengths and pitfalls of fundamentally stochastic, fallible, unintelligible and changing entities suddenly intermingled with what used to be good old fashioned engineering. Clearly some powerful alien tool was handed around except it comes with no manual and everyone has to figure out how to hold it and operate it, while the resulting magnitude 9 earthquake is rocking the profession. Roll up your sleeves to not fall behind.
“This feels like 1999 again.”
No, it doesn’t. And I was there (here).
I joined Cisco in January 2000 as a co-op, then full-time in May 2001. At the time, Cisco was the hottest infra company on the planet, riding the wave of the dot-com boom.
But by the time I started full-time, the crash had already begun. A month in, my manager was laid off. The party was over. Entire industries vanished.
Here’s what actually happened:
1. The users weren’t ready.
Most people were on dial-up. Mobile didn’t exist. E-commerce logistics were immature or non-existent. Everyone had ideas, but the end user wasn’t there.
2. Capital vanished.
The IPO window shut. Venture funding dried up. Startups that depended on future growth couldn’t raise and died fast.
3. Metrics were fake.
Companies like Kozmo, Webvan, https://t.co/G88Rs4MaDI burned cash chasing usage that never converted. Things like CAC/LTV wasn't common enough vernacular.
4. Infra got overbuilt.
Telcos like Global Crossing and WorldCom spent billions on fiber and data centers. The demand never showed up. Cisco’s customers disappeared, not because they lost but because their customers died.
5. Business models were broken.
Most dot-coms were never real businesses. They scaled early and hoped revenue would catch up. It didn’t.
Now look at today.
OpenAI, Meta, Google, xAI, Microsoft are all scrambling to keep up. Jensen put it plainly (h/t @BG2Pod)
“Every hyperscaler has realized they dramatically underbuilt.”
“Every forecast we’ve seen has been too low.”
“We’re not building for speculation. We’re building for active workloads.”
So no. This isn’t 1999.
This isn’t https://t.co/G88Rs4MaDI IPOing on vibes.
We are not in a hype cycle.
We are in a compute bottleneck.