Hal McIntosh

Geo-macro, commodities and market psychology. Quantitative background. How physical and financial systems interact.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@minenergybiz Apparently it's all fine because they are putting it all in productive capital investments which will yield huge returns as opposed to doing buy-backs. So we can safely keep buying with no price limits!

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@great_martis To infinity and beyond!

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@MerrynSW Nothing says tough negotiator like paying the other side to talk to you

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@ttmygh @DougKass I met Jeremy some months ago. Meeting a hero. Among the goats

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@TheDefiantGhost Couldn't agree more. I had the fortune to meet him a few weeks ago and he was still super sharp. We're running on pure fairy dust at this point.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@StevenBartlett I met him a few weeks ago. Still sharp as a tack with a razor sharp memory. We'd be wise to pay attention.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

I have to say I think it falls a lot more than that. Any capitulation and release of BTC holdings would be catastrophic and nobody would want to hold the stock. It would implode BTC and no sense of fair value would hold until it was all over. So everything hangs on whether he can avoid diluting further. Seen many of these situations, but this is the most extreme in my career,.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

Negative sentiment is like a fever - it has to work through the system. However cheap the silver and gold miners are, we got sick because of the excesses of the boom and now the fever has to work through, not quite there yet.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

In 1990 it was the moment that the Japanese Imperial Palace was woth more than California. I wonder if this time it will be the moment Elon was worth more than the GDP of Switzerland. Nasdaq is vertical so not long now. This will be my 14th bubble and its the most impressive by a long shot.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@great_martis Good word that

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@antibearthesis Tempted to say more sellers than buyers. I guess the enormous overhang of liquidity due to appear later in the year which is coming back into focus.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@NoLimitGains When I was trading I called those batman, two shoulders and two ears at the top

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@pete_rizzo_ Sadly there's a logical flaw in the argument and I think the real issue is dilution. Which doesn't matter until it does.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@CoinDesk Chart says collapse for MSTR sadly, then BTC can recover.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@FinanceLancelot Looking at MSTR double top and head and shoulders. I've never seen this fail to play out to the downside. It's coming home to roost.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@NoLimitGains The boosters ran out?

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@TedPillows That looks ripe for a breakout if ever I saw one. Look at the volumes at the low and the steady momentum ever since. Very similar to silver before it broke out.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

@FinanceLancelot I like it. Yes agree your prediction.

[Hal McIntosh @ModernLogix]

I tend to think you are right and silver looks better than gold and the momentum is more positive. The volumes were also more significant on the recent capitulation, however it could still drift out for a while and complete the flag, before any real rally to top of band or beyond.