Moe

At 9 years old, LaserDisc seemed like a great idea to me. I learn, write and talk about #Bitcoin and, sometimes, about other stuff

[Moe @MoeHODL]

@mendacious1902 @DonAlt oh yes, that's coming

[Moe @MoeHODL]

@IngenieroSeed agree

[Moe @MoeHODL]

@Multicripto @semillabtc En realidad esto es terrible y triste.

Información útil y a la vez un desincentivo para que alguien entre en BTC

[Moe @MoeHODL]

@lodelascripto Las cicatrices enseñan 🫡

[Moe @MoeHODL]

WTF

[Tyler Winklevoss @tyler]

There are more millionaires in the world than there are whole units of Zcash. 60 million millionaires and only 21 million ZEC. Think about it.

[Moe @MoeHODL]

@FormerDrJeff this is the way

[Moe @MoeHODL]

@Tradermayne Amen

[Mayne @Tradermayne]

Calling bottoms and tops is impressive but largely a fools errand.

Being able to quickly switch your bias when presented with new information is more important.

Don't let social media clout chasing stop you from executing your strategy.

Only thing that matters is how much money you make and keep.

It's You vs You anon.

[Moe @MoeHODL]

@MacroBombastic @CryptoKid Who's the best according to you then? Or maybe top 3?

[Moe @MoeHODL]

@adrig_iv 🧐

[Moe @MoeHODL]

@roberto_ruarte

[Moe @MoeHODL]

DCA might be boring. But it works.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

“You got lucky with Bitcoin.”

Yes.

I accidentally studied monetary history, accepted volatility, held through several psychological executions and resisted selling while every television economist performed a live autopsy on an asset that remained fully operational.

Pure casino behavior.

Now tell me about the genius of your 0.7% savings account.

bitcoin:native

[Nick Neuman @Nneuman]

Seeing a lot of people saying “self custody is over” thanks to the Coldcard hack.

Couldn’t disagree more. ~1,100 BTC has been stolen so far (est). And ~11,000 BTC went to exchanges yesterday. Potentially 10x more BTC was saved thanks to the fact that it was held in self custody! Why?

The distributed defense of self custody GAVE PEOPLE TIME to save their own money. If that RNG bug happened at a centralized custodian, all of the BTC is gone in one swoop. No time to react. But when it happens to a self custody wallet, each wallet has to be found and swept individually. People have time to act.

It makes the entire Bitcoin system more systemically resilient. And yes, it’s terrible that people are losing money. But in a scenario where this happens at a custodian, you eliminate any chance to react and save some people. If all bitcoin is held by a few centralized companies, you reduce that distributed defense and significantly increase the systemic risk of Bitcoin as a monetary network.

[Scient @Crypto_Scient]

$BTC has been trading inside the same log regression channel since 2017. And there's a rhythm here almost nobody is talking about.

Every bottom prints at the channel bottom:

2018 → channel bottom (−45%)
2020 COVID → channel bottom (−50%)
2022 → channel bottom (−38.06%)
2026 → channel bottom, in play right now (−38.88%)

Four for four. The last two within 1% of each other.

But the tops alternate:
2017 → overshoot ABOVE the channel (+171%)
2019 → contained top, inside the channel
2021 → overshoot ABOVE the channel (+167%)
2024–25 → contained top, inside the channel

Overshoot. Contained. Overshoot. Contained.

The 2024–25 cycle didn't "fail" — it was the contained top in the sequence. Exactly like 2019. And everyone wrote 2019 off too, right before 2021 escaped the channel.

Which means:
If the alternation holds, the next top is the escape. A +160% overshoot above the channel — the same magnitude as 2017 and 2021 — projects into the $400k–680k region into 2027.

And even if that sounds exaggerated: a mere retouch of the channel top from here sends us into the $200k–300k region. That's the conservative case.

We're at the channel bottom. The pattern says accumulate here.

S/O to @lastcoins for bringing this pattern to my notice.

[DurdenBTC @DurdenBTC]

everyone's still arguing about whether the $BTC bottom is in.

the last time these holder bands crossed, the argument was already over.. price just hadn't caught up yet.

your conviction must be yours and yours alone.

[bee🐝 @0xbeehive]

$BTC HAS THREE CYCLE RULES

And none of them are complicated:

1. Each peak sits exactly 1,431 days from the previous one
2. Each bear market lasts 365 days and bottoms on MA 350
3. Each bull run starts from that zone when nobody believes in it anymore

These rules have played out twice already

Right now we're inside rule 2 - day 255 of the bear market

MA 350 sits at $49k

After that - rule 3 kicks in

The model projects 254% from that zone

That's $180k

Are you ready?

[Simply Bitcoin @SimplyBitcoin]

Uncanny.

Buy Bitcoin 500 days before the halving. Sell 500 days after. Repeat.

Tops landed 526 days after 2016, 545 after 2020, 535 after 2024. This cycle hit right on schedule.

Bitcoin is down over 50 percent from it since.

[Julien ⚡ CryptoBoost @realcryptoboost]

Je suis tombé sur ce truc ce matin et j'ai explosé de rire tout seul devant mon écran.

Quelqu'un a transformé le carnet d'ordres du Bitcoin en jeu vidéo. Un vrai champ de bataille en 3D 🤯

Les acheteurs qui chargent d'un côté, les vendeurs de l'autre, les baleines qui débarquent comme des gros chars, les liquidations qui se font dégommer en direct sur le terrain.

Le pire c'est que c'est le vrai order book, en live. Et moi je suis là, à 8h du mat, à tourner la caméra pour regarder mes liquidations préférées se faire éclater.

Dix minutes de perdues et zéro regret.

C'est débile, c'est génial et je pouvais pas garder ça pour moi.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

The average Bitcoin holder has endured 70% drawdowns, exchange collapses, government threats, civil wars, mining bans, ten thousand obituaries, and one British man claiming he lost $800 million in a landfill.

You cannot shake these people out.

Their nervous systems have been converted into military infrastructure.