Monill Parikh

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[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@darshitpatel84 A person with not even worth 350 crores know more!!

Humility is virtue

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@AlgoBoffin Nope not happening

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

Diamond prices hit a century low.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@WeekendInvestng Selling shares would help liquidate some part of it or leverage it.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@DeItaone The hawkish vs dovish hold split misses the real swing factor: whether Warsh keeps the dot plot at all. He has criticised forward guidance for years. Trim the dots and the story stops being how hawkish the hold is and becomes how much less the Fed is willing to tell you.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@KobeissiLetter Most of this looks like the Hormuz risk premium leaking out after the de-escalation, not demand cracking. Quietly disinflationary right into tomorrow's Fed, and it pulls one leg out from under gold's geopolitical bid even as the central bank bid stays put.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

Gold is sitting near $4,360 an ounce going into a Fed decision where a rate cut is not even on the table.

That is the part worth sitting with. The market now prices roughly 70% odds that the Fed's next move is a hike, not a cut, with Warsh chairing his first meeting tomorrow. Higher real rates for longer are supposed to be gold's kryptonite. Yet gold keeps printing record highs anyway.

When the textbook relationship breaks like this, price is usually telling you the marginal buyer has changed. It is no longer the rate sensitive Western ETF crowd setting the level. It is central banks rebuilding reserves and a steady bid against currency debasement and fiscal risk, neither of which cares much about a 25bp move.

So the real question into Wednesday is not the rate. It is whether Warsh starts dismantling the dot plot and the guidance language, which his long record of criticising forward guidance suggests he might. Less Fed signaling means more uncertainty premium, and gold has historically been one of the cleaner places that premium shows up.

Not advice, just watching the tape.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

The Bank of Japan just took its policy rate to 1%, the highest since 1995. Thirty years of near zero, unwound a quarter point at a time.

The level is small. The signal is not. Seven of eight board members backed the hike, and the guidance leaned toward more to come rather than a pause.

Why a Tokyo rate move belongs on every macro desk: Japan has been the world's funding currency for years. Cheap yen borrowed and parked in higher yielding assets everywhere, from US Treasuries to emerging market equities. Each step higher in Japanese rates narrows that spread and pulls a little air out of the carry trade. The 2024 mini unwind was a reminder of how fast it moves once the gap starts closing.

So this week has two central banks worth watching, and the louder one is not the Fed. The FOMC tomorrow is a near certain hold. The BOJ already moved, and it is the one quietly repricing the cost of global liquidity.

Gold sitting near 4,345 into all of this is not a coincidence.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@GoldPredictors Better than that on the tape. Gold didn't just reclaim $4,300, it printed a fresh record near $4,343 today, up about 3%. The trendline matters for timing, but the reason every breakdown keeps getting bought is central bank demand through the highs. Fundamentals doing the lifting.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@unknowDLT The carry angle is the one to watch. A hike to 1% would be the first since 1995 and narrows the US-Japan gap funding the yen carry trade. Carry unwinds can drain global liquidity faster than any single Fed meeting. Arguably a bigger tail than the FOMC this week.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@RockBtmEntries That split is the peace trade in one line. Brent down about 5% to the low 80s on de-escalation, yet gold still ran 3% to a record near $4,343 the same day. Not an all clear, just the war premium coming out of oil while the hedge stays on in gold.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@silvertrade Daily delivery notices are lumpy though. They cluster at first notice and thin out mid-month, so one zero day isn't demand evaporating. The cleaner read is the gold/silver ratio near 61 vs a long-run 60, which says silver is roughly fair, not starved.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@steve_hanke @tastyliveshow Hard to call this a consolidation when gold just printed a fresh record near $4,343 today. The secular tell isn't price, it's the buyer: central banks adding through the highs, not chasing dips. That's what separates a secular bull from a cyclical one.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@aravind Amazing!

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@WhaleInsider A fresh record into a Fed week where the curve prices real odds of a year-end hike is the tell. This isn't a yields trade. The marginal buyer is central banks adding through the highs, which is what makes the bid structural, not tactical.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@steve_hanke Didn’t make any material impact

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@SimpleAditya_9 Thin premium on a gap-up day is the honest tell. It reads as positioning, not conviction. Relief rallies on geopolitical de-escalation tend to fade without earnings or real flows behind them, and the close giving back the day high fits that read.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@themarketsniper @CapitalCosm @sdbullion @competentinv @MilesFranklinCo The chart and the fundamentals line up for once. Gold to silver ratio sits near 62 against a long-run average closer to 60, so silver has room to outperform just by compressing it. No squeeze needed, mean reversion in the ratio does the work.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@Cipher2X Agree the BoJ is the underpriced event. A move to 1% would be its first since 1995 and narrows the US-Japan rate gap that funds the yen carry trade. Carry unwinds drain global liquidity faster than any single Fed meeting does.

[Monill Parikh @MonillParikh]

@cryptorover The tell is what did not sell off: gold still climbed about 2.8% to roughly $4,340 the same session. A pure risk-on relief rally would dump the safe haven. It did not, so the market is repricing the risk premium, not sounding the all-clear.