MrHalfTruth

Freelance writer who loves sharing Half Truths.
You can learn a thing or two from this unverified account if you set your ego aside.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

"We live in the most informed age in human history." Glowing screens, trending headlines, infinite knowledge, noise, deepfakes, echo chambers, forgotten context and deliberate shadows.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

@jetplut0 @MomsPostingLs They together 9 months. So this the 1st time

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

@Haleyvtuber_ Yeah and once it gets to a million woman withdraws all and dissapear without a trace

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

@messedupfoods I'd be worried a couple of years from now the chefs be asking for tips too.
Then again if i had to tip somebody i rather be tipping the chefs. I think it makes more sense.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

Have always believed the biggest clowns in the world are those in these IT jobs. Bro be making great progress in AI etc only get themselves layoffs. Have not found a single bunch of clowns like these in over a century

[Zhuang, 庄 @0x_ZHUANG]

in 2019, Shopee spent more than $20M putting Ronaldo in a viral Baby Shark ad

today, Shopee Singapore is doing a mass layoff of software engineers

also, the cruelest irony: the people who built the internet economy are the first ones getting disrupted by AI

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

@TheRealPlanC FULL BULL MKT? BULL MKT CORRECTION OVER?
This is why you're Plan C.
I don't Plan to fail. I accumulate more Bitcoin by waiting and buying lower. Have started to buy in some.
Like i said just because you have over 200k followers does not mean you know your market

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

Half truth: Bitcoin low for 2026 not in.
Bull market correction over? We in bear market you clown. Max drawdown 60%? Perhaps.
Let's see if MrHalfTruth with less than 20 follower is more Alpha than Plan C with over 200k followers.
BTC will make a new low in 2026 just watch.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

Just as I said. Bitcoin trade goes poof within 90days or to the TEE as they say.
Once again all respect to @MMCrypto
Still a GOAT to me. But I'm also a different breed. I just live in the shadows.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

Half Truth: Good god fearing man great trader. Unfortunate it will be that his liquidation price (64k) will be wavecleared within 90days. Sorry bro. Remember to take profits or stop loss.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

DID I NOT WARN YOU GUYS? bitcoin:native listens to me.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

Max pain coming for Bitcoin and crypto. The longs are lined up for the taking. Will be wonderful to see the despair of those in the lengthening and 5 year cycle or bitcoin has bottomed at 60k camp.
You guys need a rude awakening.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

Max pain coming for Bitcoin and crypto. The longs are lined up for the taking. Will be wonderful to see the despair of those in the lengthening and 5 year cycle or bitcoin has bottomed at 60k camp.
You guys need a rude awakening.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

@MarioNawfal @RepThomasMassie Whatever the outcome is thank you sir @RepThomasMassie for staying true to yourself and your country. I am not American but if i were one i would vote for you. You have shown to us that there are still some respectable and honourable Americans and we see you.

[EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm]

No One Is Prepared For The Food Crisis Now Moving Through Energy, Fertilizer, And Shipping

The food risk is not just fertilizer prices. The deeper problem is that the world hollowed out chemical and fertilizer capacity, then walked into an energy and shipping crisis right when farmers need diesel, ammonia, urea, phosphate, sulfur, credit, and delivery.

The Industrial Base Was Already Cracking

European chemical closures data shows 160 closure announcements from 2022 through late 2025, with 126 tied to known capacity. That equals roughly 37 million metric tons of annual capacity announced for closure, or about 9% of European chemical production capacity. Confirmed investment was only about 7 million metric tons, leaving a net announced loss of roughly 30.2 million metric tons.

The most exposed areas were the exact upstream sectors food systems depend on.

• Petrochemicals made up roughly 48% of announced closure capacity

• Basic inorganics made up roughly 32%

• Energy cost competitiveness was cited as the main closure reason in about 49% of cases

• Nine European steam crackers were tied to major announced capacity reductions

• Around 20,000 direct jobs and 89,000 indirect jobs were cited as affected

That is not normal cyclicality. That is industrial contraction.

Fertilizer does not begin at the farm. It begins in energy, chemicals, gas, shipping, and industrial capacity. Once those links weaken, the food system can look normal for a while, but its buffers are gone.

Fertilizer Is Energy Disguised As Food

People look at Hormuz and think oil. But it is also LNG, ammonia, sulfur, urea, tanker insurance, shipping queues, and dollar funding.

Natural gas is the feedstock for ammonia. Ammonia becomes nitrogen fertilizer. Nitrogen drives yield and protein content in wheat, corn, rice, and other staples. When energy routes break, the damage moves into the field.

Agriculture runs on seasons. If fertilizer is unavailable, too expensive, or late during the application window, lost yield cannot be recovered later.

The Shock Hits In Waves

The first wave is already here. Farmers who waited are exposed to price spikes, delays, tighter credit, and rationing by availability.

The second wave likely hits through summer and fall, when lower fertilizer use, higher diesel costs, drought stress, and shipping disruption show up in crop conditions, yields, rice availability, and feed costs.

The dangerous macro phase likely arrives in late 2026 into early 2027, when today’s input problems become food inflation, export controls, subsidy pressure, unrest, and weaker consumption.

Food shocks are delayed through planting decisions, weather windows, harvests, storage, exports, and consumer prices. By the time the average person notices, the damage has already moved through the production chain.

Who Gets Hit Hardest

The U.S. is better insulated but not immune. Europe is more fragile because it has already lost ammonia linked and chemical capacity. Asia is deeply exposed because rice, LNG, fertilizer, and Gulf energy flows are all connected.

The most combustible countries are those with high food import dependence, weak currencies, low fiscal space, and limited fertilizer access.

My Highest Conviction Window

The real danger window is Q4 2026 through Q2 2027.

That is when inventories are thinner, farm decisions are already made, weather damage is clearer, autumn planting is financed under stress, and governments react with subsidies, export bans, and emergency controls.

This is not just an oil shock.

It is a fertilizer shock, shipping shock, diesel shock, LNG shock, credit shock, and weather shock hitting a global food system that was already more fragile than people wanted to admit.

[Felix Prehn 🐶 @felixprehn]

Morgan Stanley charges you 1.5% a year to put you in funds returning 6%.

Retired teachers in ohio are pulling $4-8K a month from the same stocks you already own.

For free…

Most people have no idea what's happening with options income in 2026.

The S&P 500 returned 14% over the last 12 months.

Your fidelity advisor charged 1.0%. Your morgan stanley advisor 1.5%. Your edward jones advisor 2.1%.

They picked the same large-cap blend you could've bought yourself for free.

Fuck mutual funds. Fuck wrap accounts. Fuck the AUM model.

The fastest way to print 5-figure monthly income on stocks you already own is the covered call wheel.

99% of advisors won't tell you because the wheel pays you instead of them.

I run the wheel across 12 large caps. It prints $58K a year on a $700K portfolio while i sleep.

Total time: 90 minutes a week. Total cost: $0.

Move 1. Open a tier-2 options account.

Fidelity, schwab, or tastytrade. 8 minute application. Same-day approval.

Tier 2 unlocks covered calls and cash secured puts. The only two strategies you need.

Move 2. Pick 5-10 stocks you already own.

Apple, microsoft, google, amazon, berkshire B, JNJ, KO, XOM, CVX.

Names with weekly options chains and 5M+ daily volume. Skip illiquid names.

Move 3. Sell 30-45 day calls 5-10% out of the money.

Strike right above the 200 day moving average.

Apple at $215, sell the $230 call 35 days out for $4.20.

That's $420 per contract. On 100 shares.

Move 4. Run the wheel.

Stock stays below strike: call expires worthless. You keep $420. Sell another one.

Stock blows past strike: shares get called away at $230, you keep premium, sell cash secured puts at $215 to re-enter.

Move 5. Reinvest premium into SCHD or JEPI.

Or buy more of the underlying on dips.

Do not spend the premium. Premium is the salary.

Move 6. Track the assignment ratio.

Getting assigned more than 30% of the time = strikes too close to the money. Push them out.

The goal is income, not realized gains.

Move 7. Set the calendar alarm for thursday 3pm ET.

Roll losing positions before friday close. Roll out 14-21 days for a credit.

Never let a loss compound into the next week.

Move 8. Block 90 minutes saturday morning for review. That's the entire job.

The asymmetry nobody talks about.

Mutual fund path on $700K: pay 1.0-2.1% AUM, 4-5% net after fees on a 6-7% gross. $32K a year.

Options education path: pay $2,000 to some twitter guy who teaches "the iron condor" and 51 other strategies. Quit in month 2.

Wheel path on $700K: 2 strategies, 12 stocks, 90 minutes a week. $58-72K a year cash collected.

Plus i still own the stocks. Plus i still collect the dividends.

i run the wheel on 6 sub-portfolios across 6 account types. They print $4,800 a month combined while i sleep.

They don't have feelings. They don't panic. They don't watch cnbc.

VIX is elevated. Premiums are 30-40% richer than a normal year.

When VIX drops back to 12, income compresses with it. Window: 6 months.

I'll probably regret posting this. The comments will be flooded with "this is gambling."

Somehow the people running AUM fees on grandma always say that.

(your advisor told you options were too risky. then he charged you 1.5 percent to put you in the same large cap blend you could buy with 3 clicks. then he sent you a christmas card. then he bought a boat. nobody mentioned the wheel because the wheel pays you instead of him.)

This is my once in a lifetime FREE webinar.

I'm a former banker walking through the exact 12-stock wheel universe live. Plus my strike selection scorecard and the thursday roll trigger sheet.

The compliance team at my old firm would never let me share this publicly.

Limited spots. Link in comments: https://t.co/1j7Dmb4qHR

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

@CryptoWendyO Yes and by real man you mean the cameraman. Who despite all this have the absolute focus of getting all this on camera in the right position and sticking through it all while all the threat and drama unfolded. Kudos to the cameraman.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

@sarahadams The amazing thing is that the camera man and their cameras still had time to take shots of them for the public. Amazing. You would think everyone be running for dear life instead we get nice photo ops of all this happening.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

@NoodleHairCR7 Honestly at this point i'm just shocked and amazes how kim at this age and after being so used by so many can still land big timers like lewis. One of life's biggest mysteries. Lewis should just ride for 1 race and be done. No need to stick through "the whore season"😅

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

@cryptomanran What a joke. Let me give you a spoiler.
The war will end or a real semi permanent ceasefire when one of this happen.
Bibi locked up
Someone nukes Iran
Trump gets removed
US or Israel deplete their ammo more than 50%
Big recession/market crash
China/Russia cut assistance to Iran.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

Anyone who thought otherwise are naive fools who should go back to take history lessons. Those who got punished for making investment decisions thinking this would work out deserved getting smash. A real lesson in the making

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

BREAKING: JD Vance says will return to the US without a deal

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

Someone placed an $800,000 bet that America is about to invade Iran on the ground.

That same wallet correctly predicted the last three military strikes on Iran, every single time, hours before the bombs fell.

This is not a coincidence and here is what is really going on.

The US has been at war with Iran for over a month and American and Israeli forces struck Iranian nuclear sites in late February.

But the uranium is still there and nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium, enough to build multiple nuclear weapons is buried deep inside a mountain in Iran.

Trump asked the Pentagon for a plan to go in and take it.

There is reports that he wants to send soldiers into Iran, build a runway on Iranian soil, airlift in excavation equipment, and physically pull it out of the ground.

The military briefed him on the operation and he has not said no.

At the same time, the Atlantic reported that military planners have finalized two separate ground assault scenarios inside Iran, waiting only for Trump's green light.

The Pentagon just sent 5,000 Marines trained for amphibious landings and 1,000 paratroopers to the Middle East.

Now go back to that Polymarket wallet.

It joined in January 2026 and it has made 57 predictions.

It has an 83% overall win rate and a 93% win rate on bets over $10,000 concerning Iran specifically.

It won $297,000 betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28 and those bets were placed hours before the bombs dropped.

Its newest bet is $800,000 on a US ground invasion of Iran.

A finance professor and former CFTC advisory board member told CNN: "It certainly appears this individual either has extraordinary luck or was engaged in insider trading."

Blockchain analysts say the pattern "strongly indicates insider activity."

Someone with access to classified military decisions appears to be converting American war plans into personal profit and there is currently no law in the US that clearly makes this illegal, because Polymarket operates offshore.

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

Half truth: Whatever number that was mentioned was immaterial. All that needs to be heard was he spoke it in weeks and not days.
Have a seat, close your eyes and fast forward what the world and its economies look like after weeks.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸 Sec. Hegseth on when U.S. objectives will be achieved:

"4 to 6 weeks, 6 to 8 weeks, 3 weeks. It will be the president's determination."

No timeline. Just Trump's call.

https://t.co/Osx4tyCN3Z

[MrHalfTruth @MrHalfTruth]

As of time of this binance spot has gone to $65k exactly for $BTC. Expecting a proper flush lower soon within these coming days.
The heavy cavalry is coming for your longs.

[StockMarket.News @_Investinq]

The man who manages $11 trillion just said two words that should terrify every person on the planet.

"Global recession."

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the largest asset manager in human history sat down with the BBC and laid out the scenarios.

Fink told the BBC there are only two possible outcomes for the global economy right now.

His exact words: "There's not going to be an outcome that's somewhere in the middle."

Outcome one is that Iran gets reintegrated into the global community, sanctions ease and Iranian oil and Venezuelan oil flood back into markets.

Then the oil drops below $40 a barrel, the world gets relief.

Outcome two is that Iran remains a threat, the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted and the standoff stretches on for years.

Oil stays above $100 and pushes toward $150.

The result? A "stark and steep global recession."

Why does $150 oil collapse the world economy? Because oil is embedded in everything.

Food production, shipping, manufacturing, heating., fertilizer, chemicals and plastics.

When oil spikes, prices spike across every single category of human life.

Central banks raise rates to fight inflation, businesses freeze investment and consumers stop spending.

Also, jobs disappear, GDP craters and the cycle feeds itself.

There is no bailout for this and no rate cut fixes an energy shock.

Fink also made a point that high oil prices are a "very regressive tax."

The wealthy absorb higher energy costs while the poor cannot.

This hits grocery bills, rent, and transportation everything the bottom half of the global population depends on to survive.

The market is still pricing in hope, a resolution, a deal, a ceasefire.

Fink is pricing in reality, two extremes, and the clock is running.

Pay attention to this one.