@IK2379128548@DaveHcontrarian@MichaelLawlor13@BackStCrawler@GunnerGhostt Since he has blocked me, asked him please. Since 2021 he expected that inflation and rates will fall like a stone in the US. What makes him believe that now the time is right? 3 years is a LONG time. not trader's stuff.
@DaveHcontrarian@consciousness76@AnthonyFatseas In 2022, inflation surged more than you expected. You refused to amend your forecast because you are a strategist, not a trader. You were correct, but with a year delay. What about now?
@DaveHcontrarian@Dream_Chaser_24@FibonacciInves1@VladTheInflator You are forecasting this "few more months" for some years now. Yes you got the rally. You got the 6000. However what you expect for bond yields, DXY take time, can't happen in few months. Don't you need to recalibrate your time expectation a bit?
@DaveHcontrarian@john_kurgan@CRDean5 Everyone and his mother except a rally and then a correction. This is for at least a few months now. Who is left to buy?
@DaveHcontrarian@Niki88672721@eccentrickky@bluedemiurgus@crotalvolante@AnthonyFatseas In about a year, you are forecasting the DXY will go to 82 from 108, then will go up to 120. In the meantime the rates will have a gigantic slump to 0. Don't you think that this is a very short time? After all you were forecasting SPX 6000, but took 4 years to materialize. Thanks
@DaveHcontrarian@Rawbertttttt@DunagunKaiser I do not challenge your expertise in the US markets or your forecast in general. However how confident are you on matters like the euro, that is far from your observation? The French government is having troubles. It will take at least months to recover. Same applies for JPY.
@DaveHcontrarian@Rawbertttttt@DunagunKaiser You are expecting the market to rally to the peak fast, "few months". Even if the don't peak simultaneously, are you suggesting a move from 1.06 to 1.30 as a matter of a few months, even a bit longer than that? What will be the causes for such severe move?
@DaveHcontrarian@hrqeng@Tibet704729721@derek_sojek@cuteman1970 Assuming your forecast for β¬/$ 1.30 *while* we experience the melt up. Then since that melt up should be fast, the FX move must be fast too. Even if not perfectly synchronized. Am I understand correctly your view?
@DaveHcontrarian@TotoCooper1@SportsPharmLa As you are US based, don't you consider the chance that all your viewpoints are US based? Missing critical international points like the European war and the EU political paralysis? Speaking about your FX forecast.
@DaveHcontrarian@SportsPharmLa Apologies if I insist. In first Trump term the deficit went up by a lot, but the $ strengthen. Europe and Japan were in better shape then. Also in 2022 you said that you were "very wrong" about the dollar. What now is different that we don't see, and you do?
@DaveHcontrarian@SportsPharmLa There is no argument. It is a concern about the market. Thank you for your reply. Nothing personal. I don't have followers. I don't care for optics.
@DaveHcontrarian@SportsPharmLa To save time, we assume you are 100% correct. The concern is that the momentum is such that the market may need months after the inauguration to realize that. And few months is not day trading.