If the weekly RSI were closing right now, it would tie the lowest it's been in Bitcoin's history.
The 200-week SMA is at $58,000, and the 1st quantile in my Bitcoin Quantile Model is at $54,000 to $58,000, depending on whether you use the genesis block as your start point or a later date.
At the risk of being wrong again, all signs point to the bottom being very near.
Having said that, there is a lot of momentum behind this capitulation, and surprisingly no level is even putting up much of a fight.
It seems everyone wants out.
For transparency, I have not sold any Bitcoin and have zero plans of selling, as I have very strong conviction in Bitcoin as a long-term investment and asset.
I bought most of my holdings during the March 2020 crash and have a very low cost basis, and bought more around $18,000 during the FTX crash.
I have been in the space since early 2018, and I have stomached massive drops in alts back when I used to hold them.
I don't and haven't invested in alts for years. I have been through the FTX crash and the 55% drawdown between the 2021 peaks.
So when you have conviction and have no plans to sell, even if you are losing money on paper, but you are not a forced seller, this is just part of the journey.
I have my targets for selling / borrowing against my Bitcoin some day and those targets are much much higher.
I am here for the long-term and will not be shaken out.
If you are a trader, that is a completely different story, and some of you will win big and others lose big, but you are participating in a zero-sum game.
Trading the greatest asset of our lifetime seems like a bad idea, but to each their own.
Anyone who has followed my content on 𝕏 or listened to my interviews knows I have never promoted trading Bitcoin.
As a long-term investor, my passion has always been to quantify the underlying patterns Bitcoin follows and share a reasonable long-term trajectory based on math, statistics, and correlations. I'm really a Bitcoin data nerd at heart.
I've never been shy about sharing my opinions on 𝕏, and I've had my share of wins and losses with short-term predictions.
I clearly got the specific timing of this recovery wrong, and I'll own that. Bitcoin humbles everyone eventually, especially on shorter time frames. It was my turn.
Being an early contrarian often looks identical to being wrong until it doesn't. But short-term timing has never been my focus or specialty.
— Plan C
When #crypto is crashing.
When stocks are crashing.
When gold is crashing.
When silver is crashing.
And people are getting liquidated.
And everyone is looking for someone to blame.
Ask yourself:
Are you the person who panics and quits.
Or do you,
See this is a fucking opportunity that has arrived,
Because I’ll tell you this:
When Covid happened and $btc crashed to $3000.
Everyone was panicking.
But I was buying with a smile.
I was getting excited buying alts for cheap.
Why?
Because this is where you get the 100x - 1000x coins.
Not when you see coins like $tits do 1000x
By then the move has already happened.
Now the new opportunities are arriving.
This is it
Time to capitalise.
@davidfrum 1. Bitcoin has been declared dead 467 times over 17 years, yet is objectively the best performing asset of the last decade
2. Bitcoin's environmental merits are established in 22 peer reviewed publications
But well done for combining 2 uninformed statements in a single tweet