Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker: HBM DRAM will be 30-40% of all hyperscaler capex in 2027.
Baker manages Atreides - his 2025 Micron call is now 14x. This is his next call.
HBM requires stacking 12-16 DRAM dies in a single package. Only three companies can do it: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung. No fourth supplier arrives in 2027. Hundreds of billions annually to three firms.
Micron's new supply chain agreements lock in floor pricing above prior cycle gross margin peaks.
If you still hold $MU at a commodity discount to $ASML and $LRCX, Baker says that discount is no longer earned.
Baker's full case at @theallinpod:
https://t.co/sH8c5iozAo
Source: All-In Podcast - https://t.co/31lFFUPJgJ
Bank of America now expects three Fed rate hikes in 2026 with 25bps increases in September, October and December taking rates to 4.50%.
The bank also doesn't expect cuts until 2028 while Polymarket now gives a 61% chance of at least one Fed hike next year.
VANDA RESEARCH:
In the last 3 trading days, retail investors have bought the same amount of SpaceX $SPCX as they also bought in the following stocks combined…
$NVDA $GOOGL $META $SPY $QQQ $AMZN $MSFT
Retail really wants more SpaceX.