I don't know who needs to hear this:
Memecoins are a slaughterhouse, and supporting them directly or indirectly is both sociopathic and short-sighted.
Everyone who enters the ecosystem via that door loses money and won't come back; let's not focus on shrinking the pie.
1/ On May 18, @EchoProtocol_ 's admin key was compromised, letting an attacker mint 1,000 fake eBTC. 45 of which were used as collateral on @Curvance to borrow 11.29 real WBTC (~$867K) — money that belonged to lenders who had nothing to do with eBTC's security failure. 🧵
this will have several negative repercussions:
1) completely removes solo stakers from the game
2) destroys a big part of the investment thesis for @BitMNR and @Sharplink
3) induces sell pressure from every single entity (individuals and institutions) invested in ethereum:native
Now that you can read this, here's what changed over the past few months:
@ambire is the best wallet, Rabby still great.
@ether_fi has the best crypto card, no competition, even if @MikeSilagadze refuses to giv me VIP status.
Sadly, Zeal is slowly winding down,
@getrebind is an awesome alternative if you have a Gnosis Pay card.
ENS got taken over, .gwei domains are the new cool ones.
Many projects that raised in 2021 cycle and previous ones that failed to find PMF are winding down; it's not sad, it's a healthy consolidation, a new generation will come.
As an investor, be aware that no bull market will resurrect a token of a dead project; inspect your bags and accept parting ways, many zombies out there slowly eating their treasury before eventually winding down.
DeFI is now entirely split into two paths,
The dominant one is OpFi (Open Finance): bend the knee to TradFi and become part of the current system. "Become a tool for the banks." It's the Morpho vision.
The other is DeFi in the original sense, an actual paradigm shift toward decentralized finance.
"Beat the banks at their own game."
It's losing momentum right now, but it's why I've spent over a decade in this madhouse.
The comeback story will be legendary.
It's still early.
1/ Grayscale Research believes the $AAVE token fair value could rise to ~$175 in one year and is currently undervalued at $75
Top 30 crypto assets age is ~8 years - compare that to the 100+ year average for the constituents currently in the Dow
We're still early
🧵⬇️
🚨ASÍ ES COMO LA BURBUJA DE LA IA VA A ROMPER EL S&P 500
Lee esto con calma antes de comprar una sola acción.
Tres gigantes de la IA y el espacio van a salir a bolsa casi a la vez, con una valoración combinada de 4 billones de dólares:
SpaceX. OpenAI. Anthropic.
Y la mayoría todavía no entiende lo que eso significa.
1. El mayor evento de liquidez de la historia
SpaceX acaba de protagonizar la mayor OPV jamás vista.
75.000 millones captados. Valoración de 2,2 billones.
OpenAI ya ha presentado un S-1 confidencial y apunta a una valoración de 1 billón.
Anthropic también se encamina a cotizar en bolsa con esa misma cifra.
Es decir: casi 4 billones en valoración de IA y espacio intentando entrar al mercado público al mismo tiempo.
Y ese dinero tiene que salir de algún sitio.
2. El S&P 500 está mucho más concentrado de lo que la gente cree
Las Mag 7 y las acciones ligadas a la IA pesan ya alrededor de un tercio de todo el índice:
Nvidia. Microsoft. Google. Amazon. Meta. Apple. Tesla.
Y ahora las mayores empresas privadas del mundo vienen a por esa misma bolsa de capital.
Los fondos no se sacan de la manga cientos de miles de millones de la noche a la mañana.
Venden lo que ya tienen. Recogen beneficios. Liberan liquidez.
Y las primeras acciones en sufrir presión suelen ser justo las que mejor lo han hecho:
Nvidia. Microsoft. Google. Amazon.
Los mismos nombres que mantienen en pie al S&P 500.
3. En el techo de toda gran burbuja, el capital se concentra en un puñado de empresas “infalibles”
Los Locos Años Veinte las tuvieron.
La burbuja de Japón en los 80 las tuvo.
La burbuja puntocom las tuvo.
Y cada vez, los inversores repetían lo mismo:
“Estas empresas son diferentes.” “Son demasiado importantes para caer.”
Y cada vez, el mercado terminó rompiéndose.
Hoy la concentración del capital en tecnología vuelve a estar en extremos históricos.
Y un mercado sobrecargado no necesita malas noticias para caer.
Solo necesita que se vaya la liquidez.
4. Tras una OPV, los inversores tempranos por fin tienen por dónde salir
Fondos de capital riesgo. Empleados. Inversores privados. Insiders.
Después de años comprando en privado, por fin pueden asegurar beneficios.
Las empresas salen a bolsa cuando el mercado público está dispuesto a pagar el precio más alto.
En plena era puntocom, hasta las mejores compañías quedaron destrozadas tras las ventas de los insiders en la salida:
Amazon: -95%
Microsoft: -65%
Intel: -80%
Oracle: -80%
Yahoo: -97%
Y el mismo escenario está de vuelta.
Así es como la burbuja se alimenta a sí misma:
Primero, los ganadores sostienen el índice. Luego, los gigantes salen a bolsa.
Los fondos venden a los viejos ganadores para perseguir a los nuevos.
Los insiders se llevan la liquidez.
Y el pequeño inversor se queda con el sueño en las manos.
Recordatorio: llevo 15 años acertando todos los techos y suelos del mercado, incluido el suelo del Bitcoin en 16.000 dólares y el techo en 126.000.
La próxima señal será todavía más importante.
Cuando salga del mercado por completo, lo avisaré aquí, en público, como siempre.
Activa las notificaciones.
Y si todavía no me sigues, más adelante entenderás por qué fue un error.
1/ Moving money just got a whole lot easier. You can now send fiat in 6 different currencies across 120+ countries.
Pay for your rent, your bills, send money back to your home country and more — all with https://t.co/gbHcksy7eA.
the EF had ~12M ETH at genesis
which was split roughly 50/50 between early contributors and the EF itself
~6M ETH to early contributors (around 85 people) including vitalik, Gavin, Charles, Joe Lubin, Mihai Alisie, Anthony Di Iorio, etc.
~6M ETH to the Ethereum Foundation:
They kept ~3M for operations / treasury (actual slice)
Set aside another ~3M for a “developer purchase program” for ~50 foundation employees.
this was a decade ago and i haven’t seen any other project be as transparent about distribution as ethereum (holding base got a lot more distributed so it really doesn’t matt what the ef does)
and half of the supply went to GPU miners btw*
Some of my perspective on where the @ethereumfndn is going.
First of all, this is only my own view. The board is not just me, and I have no extra special powers on the board that the other board members do not. @aerugoettinea is the one executing much of this transition. My input has been largely on technical questions. The board is in the process of expanding, and my own power within the org will continue to decrease, which is honestly what I want.
The 2025 era brought many important improvements to EF and its ability to execute. Many issues were resolved, and EF continues to benefit from its improved efficiency and greater focus on concrete goals to this day. And so with those problems resolved, early this year, the largest remaining hole that I perceived was something different nagging at me: I would regularly spot people saying things like "vitalik says these beautiful things about ethereum needing to be decentralized, and have privacy, and be a sanctuary technology, but why do the EF's actions not reflect that?"
Now, you may have been hearing something different. You may not have been sensing a feeling of crisis at all, and maybe were hearing people saying that finally we were taking execution and BD seriously and the main task for us is to keep going that way and be even better and faster. Then probably there is genuine difference between you and me, in what kinds of criticism I take most seriously, and what kinds of critics through their criticism are most able to make me feel pain.
As an analogy, let's briefly switch over to a different domain.
One belief you can have about Google is that it is a success story, and has brought a lot of good to humanity in organizing the world's information. Another belief you can have about Google is that they had a beautiful idealistic beginning, but at some point the corruption of mainstream corporate attitudes seeped in, and they slowly bit by bit completely abandoned the "don't be evil" slogan.
My belief on Google specifically is probably somewhere between the two. BUT, if you had taken me back in time to ~2008, and offered me a button to press to make Google one or two standard deviations more "dogmatic", eg. give Richard Stallman permanent veto power over some key policies, I would immediately press it.
Why? Because a choice for one company is not a choice for the world, or even one country. Google existed and exists in the context of a technology industry generally drifting away from early idealistic don't-be-evil roots and toward greed for financial gain, totalizing visions of accelerated superintelligence, infiltration by sociopaths, and craven capitulation to (or worse, active participation in) government pressure for ideological control, surveillance and war. And so *one company* doing something different, positioning itself to be what George Bernard Shaw calls the Unreasonable Man, resisting the trend of the times, would have been better for freedom, balance of power and stability of society as a whole, than *all* large companies bending to dominant trends. This is a part of my version of pluralism.
This line of thinking is not just mine, but I also is not too far off from what Aya and others had in mind with the Mandate.
Now how does this all get to the role of the EF?
EF is not a "center of Ethereum", rather EF is "one node, with a defined purpose, alongside other nodes". We've always said that the EF should be the latter, but many in the Ethereum ecosystem (and even within the EF) wanted us to be the former. Now, we are taking action to ensure that we will be the latter.
This is particularly important because EF is a limited organization, with limited resources and limited organizational capacity. The EF has only ~0.16% of all ETH (less than many other individual ETH holders), whereas among other blockchains it's common for "the central foundation" to have 10-50%. Fiscally, the EF was originally designed to fulfill a limited work scope defined in the token sale docs and other pre-launch materials (building the chain software; getting through Frontier, Homestead, Metropolis, Serenity), which was fully completed in 2022; it was not designed to be an eternal steward.
And so today, the EF is choosing to use its remaining resources to pursue longevity over breadth (yes, this means we sell less ETH). The EF focuses *specifically* on those activities critical to the success of ethereum as a censorship/capture-resistant, open, private and secure system, that would not happen otherwise. This means making hard choices, and in some cases even activities that we highly approve of and people that we highly respect becoming outside of the EF. People of great technical talent, public respect and even alignment with the mission and CROPS being outside of the EF is in fact necessary if we want important tasks to be able to attract outside capital. This also means the EF taking opinionated stands culturally.
This is all intended in cooperation with all other parts of ethereum. We recognize that many other parts of the ethereum world highly respect CROPS and related values. But highly respecting is not the same as choosing to specialize and totally dedicate to a domain (Compare in a different domain: I think reducing animal cruelty is important, and I like vegan food, but am not full unconditional vegan myself)
EF is still in a transition period, and we expect its new long-term form to stabilize over the next few months. What are the guiding principles of this new form? Again, I am only one person, but I can give my answer from a technical perspective (there are also critical non-technical aspects).
At the core, *Ethereum must be impressive*. We are living in an age of highly intelligent AI and all kinds of other technological acceleration. "Status quo EVM, with a hard fork or two a year to optimize for short-term needs of users" is not interesting.
To some, "impressive" means: 250ms latency and 1M TPS. I think Ethereum trying to go that route is a mistake. Being as fast and as scalable as possible, and only a small epsilon more decentralized than the others, is a route to mediocrity, and if we try it we will lose.
I think Ethereum should scale. But I think Ethereum should strive the hardest to be deeply impressive in a different dimension: the CROPS dimension. This means things like:
* Provably bug-free Ethereum. This is a goal that all cybersecurity researchers would have thought is absurd and impossible, up until roughly 6 months ago. Now, it's on the cusp of being possible, thanks to AI-assisted formal verification. So we should be frontrunners in doing this.
* Available chain consensus. Ethereum is, and with lean consensus will cotninue to be, the ONLY chain that has both (i) traditional-BFT style properties that it's safe under asynchrony up to a high level of fault tolerance, and (ii) the bitcoin PoW-style property that under synchrony it's safe up to 49% attackers. As far as I can tell, literally no other chain has this or is planning for it; bitcoin goes for (ii) only and most other chains go for (i) only. Some will remember I fought hard for this, Unreasonably insisting that it is not OK for ethereum to rely on social consensus and hard forks to rescue ethereum from 34% of nodes going offline. It's OK for chains like hyperledger, bnb, solana, tempo, etc. It's not OK for bitcoin or ethereum or eg. zcash.
* Intermediary minimization. The fact that smart contract wallets, protocols like railgun, etc have to send transactions through intermediaries to get included onchain is honestly embarrassing, and it's a constant point of fragility. Hence the work on FOCIL and EIP-8141 (and 7701 and years of work before) to make transaction sending intermediary-minimized with public mempool and strong inclusion properties, in a truly general-purpose way, that covers not just eg. secp256r1, but also privacy protocols and much more. Kohaku is pushing intermediary minimization at the user layer, pulling Ethereum away from the dystopian status quo world where our wallets don't even verify the chain, send our private data out to a dozen third-party servers, and toward a brighter CROPS future.
Some of these goals are Unreasonable - maybe Ethereum would be "fine" getting only 50% of the way - what if we depend on intermediaries, but make it easy to switch? But going 50% of the way would not make Ethereum Deeply Impressive in the CROPS way. So we push for 100%.
Fortunately all these goals are compatible with high TPS, this is a major focus of research (esp. on scaling the state). Well-designed L2s can also help, especially L2s optimized for specific applications (eg. high-volume trading, privacy...). These goals are even compatible with significantly lower slot times, thanks to Raul's work on erasure-coded P2P, and many other optimizations.
The most high-value "product" of the ethereum blockchain, financially speaking, is ETH the asset. Ethereum secures $250 billion of ETH. The types of properties of Ethereum that I mentioned above are very good for ETH the asset. Nearly 90% of my net worth is in ETH, and most of the remainder is ~$40m of onchain fiat of which every dollar has already been allocated for some open-source biotech or software or hardware initiative. That said, there are aspects of supporting ETH the asset - *necessary* aspects even - that are outside the scope of the EF. This is where we need other heroes (some of whom hold more ETH than the EF does) to step in and help. EF has been recently thinking more about how it will relate to other such organizations, and give them needed initial support.
EF will be a smaller ship than in previous years, a more opinionated one - in some cases more opinionated in ways that might be difficult to comprehend - but a longer-lasting one, and one suited to making sure that ethereum brings something meaningful to the world. We are grateful to all those inside and outside the EF who are helping to make this happen.
The Plan?
Start a VC fund for "everyone" but only invest in companies they've already missed at insane valuations deep into series G rounds. We'll charge them 3% for something they can't even sell.
Think about it.
Hedge fund fees for VC illiquidity with mutual fund marketing.
Following the KelpDAO hack, we built an open analysis of DVN security configurations across every active OApp on LayerZero over the last 90 days.
Of ~2,665 unique OApp contracts: 47% run a 1-of-1 DVN security floor, 45% run 2-of-2, and ~5% run 3-of-3 or higher.
As we know, KelpDAO's rsETH sat in the first bucket.
Open query, public methodology, feedback welcome:
https://t.co/7sQCMN1uCS
Agree with this and would also encourage all asset issuers to consider rate limits at the mint & redemption level, as well as a custom rate limit configuration on top of LZ OFTs.
We built a solution on top of the standard OFT to throttle cross chain transfers at $10m per hour for every DVN, in addition to the $10m per block rate limit on the mint contract. The former would have prevented Kelp, the latter Resolv.
In a disaster scenario where the LZ DVN is compromised you can at least contain the damage to $10m per chain per hour before stepping in to shut down transfers entirely.
Yes it’s a slightly annoying inconvenience for users 99% of the time, but a worthwhile trade off to avoid going to zero.
If you would like support on adding the same custom OFT configuration please reach out directly to myself or the team.
Every Defi protocol should have:
1. Circuit breakers for deposit and withdrawals, and possibly other internal operations as well
2. Timelocks for any change
3. Security councils that can shut down protocols immediately
We don't need insurance, we need to do start doing the ffcking basics correctly. It's too early for this space to drive without any training wheels.
I beg you, sacrifice a tiny bit of UX to gain a lot of peace of mind. The worst possible UX is losing your user's money.
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Please keep in mind:
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Any unsolicited message, invite, or "opportunity" claiming to come from us is a scam. The only legitimate way to reach Dewhales is through our official website.
We've created a dedicated verification page where you can confirm whether the person you're speaking with legitimately represents Dewhales:
🔗 https://t.co/VlTVieCg90
The older I get the more I realise what I should optimise my life for
- Health
- Little to no stress (financial or external)
- Friendships
- Fulfilment in my work
That’s literally it. It’s pretty simple really.