Bad news global & domestic factors reflected in negative August mining & manufacturing output/high frequency 3Q economic data indicates weak growth/good news SA rises to 60 from 67 in latest WEF competitiveness report/structural reforms still needed to reignite economy, says WEF
Brexit: SACU-UK trade agreement offers SA continuity in tariff regime with UK-EU post-Brexit/but 4 world trading system first prize still orderly & smooth Brexit/more so with faltering global growth/'hard' Brexit means big downside risks/political roller-coaster continues for now
NWU Business School's recent 3Q 2019 Policy Uncertainty Index warned of renewed load-shedding/uncertain power supply bad 4 business & consumer confidence/Eskom's continued vulnerability comes even when economic activity at low ebb/yet SA must boost investor confidence 4 growth
Nedbank 2019 GDP forecast still 0.5%/growth outlook for 2020 & 2021 cut to 1.1% & 1.3%/e.g. Energy Minister says Eskom tariffs too high, yet Eskom legally challenges NERSA decisions/policy certainty still an elusive goal for growth/ clear need for gov 'stay on message' in MTBPS?
The ECB Podcast has arrived! Crypto-assets, blockchain and Facebook’s Libra are among the topics discussed by our host @MichaelSteen and guests. Listen, subscribe and let us know what you think #podcast https://t.co/7TL9SLG3S4
Congratulations 2 esteemed 18 member Economic Advisory Council/need 2 carve out clear EAC role given National Planning Connission, Nedlac, Financial & Fiscal Planning Commission etc/challenge 2 avoid duplication with existing bodies/does'nt SA badly need more policy coordination?
Attended 24th Nedlac Annual Summit Sandton today/Employment & Labour Minister Nxesi strong message SA must 'not spend more time in forums than in action'/all agreed Nedlac needs overhaul for effective social dialogue/will there be a 'new look' Nedlac by its 25th birthday in 2020?
UK Supreme Court's historical decision PM's proroguing of Parliament 'unlawful' has huge political & constitutional consequences/legal & political factors suggest risks of 'no deal' Brexit on October 31 now lower/ SA's interests protected by recent renewed trade agreement with UK
MPC decision unchanged interest rates against tide of data itself outlined/inflation better anchored, weak economy, lower growth in 2020 & 2021, global easing cycle/room exists 4 another 25 basis points cut/more flexibility needed 2 avoid 'operation successful, but patient died?'
Bad clash between PP & CR requires to be speedily resolved if economic uncertainty is not to escalate/CR's political capital needed for tough policy decisions to turn economy around/or will it remain that if we do not get the politics 'right', we'll not get the economics 'right'?
Moody's strong warning re open-ended nature of bailouts 4 SOEs like ESKOM without overall plan mean greater risks 4 SA of (a)Moody's downgrading SA 2 junk status (b) higher taxation (c) possible 'debt trap' (d) IMF involvement/what strategy is then necessary in forthcoming MTBPS?