Drew

"Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail" Rotate growth sectors for 1-3month trends :SOXL,TQQQ, ETH, IBIT, BITX

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@Mileage_impo McLaren F1
Ferrari F50

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@AlexForbesOps It’s cause to this guy… He’s made it in life… to him

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

This and also Bitcoin is dead compared to growth in US stocks.

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

I could probably write a whole book on how fatherhood has changed me as a trader, but this is one of the clearest examples.

I thought of it on vacation last week when I cut some risk before taking off.

In the past, I could lose what eventually became trivial amounts of money on a single trade.

10k, 20k, 50k, 100k+

At the time, it almost felt like play money. There was no real weight attached to it.

Gross idea, but true. Trading changes your perspective on money fast.

I still remember the first year I made my dad’s salary in a single trade and had a real “WTF” moment.

Now?

Lose 20k forcing some idea that didn’t need to be forced, and I don’t just see a red number.

I see a family trip, maybe a few.

Lose 50k, and that’s not just a bad trade.

Maybe that’s memories. That’s time with my wife and kids.

Fatherhood changes your relationship with risk as a trader because money stops being abstract again.

It turns back into real life.

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

I could probably write a whole book on how fatherhood has changed me as a trader, but this is one of the clearest examples.

I thought of it on vacation last week when I cut some risk before taking off.

In the past, I could lose what eventually became trivial amounts of money on a single trade.

10k, 20k, 50k, 100k+

At the time, it almost felt like play money. There was no real weight attached to it.

Gross idea, but true. Trading changes your perspective on money fast.

I still remember the first year I made my dad’s salary in a single trade and had a real “WTF” moment.

Now?

Lose 20k forcing some idea that didn’t need to be forced, and I don’t just see a red number.

I see a family trip, maybe a few.

Lose 50k, and that’s not just a bad trade.

Maybe that’s memories. That’s time with my wife and kids.

Fatherhood changes your relationship with risk as a trader because money stops being abstract again.

It turns back into real life.

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@AuclairsDad lol OMG!!!!

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@ExitLiqCapital Love it. Thinking BTC is dead compared to stocks tho

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@AuclairsDad @AbyssHeadphones Yusss!

[Marty Hogan @marty_hogan]

OK... take my money

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@Dcpcooks @LongTplexTrader @carwowuk Arguably peak M3

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@Nebraskangooner

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@based16z Cue the music

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@AuclairsDad Good man

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@AuclairsDad Love it!!!

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@AuclairsDad Brutal

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@AuclairsDad Booze slushie?

[Hermes Lux @HermesLux]

Last year I stopped paying taxes from my paycheck and bought BTC instead.

In April I did my taxes; I paid nothing and waited for them to contact me back.

Today I received notice from IRS that I owe them. I was waiting for this. I am choosing to pay over 36 months instead, leaving the money invested in BTC the whole time. I owe $9,740 but since I am taking 3 years (36 monthly payments) to pay it back I will end up paying $10,915 instead. This equates to about 7.55% APR. I'm doing this because I believe BTC will average better than 7.55%.

If I had owed >$10k I would be able to pay it back over 6 years instead of 3 years. I'll fix that next year.
@sunny051488

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@ExitLiqCapital @winekingg Gotta love a good wine!!!

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

If you have time read:

https://t.co/HzleFVKjN7

Best article this year by far.
Methodically goes over thoughts about the future and parts involved.

[Jeff Dorman @jdorman81]

i'm not in Saylor's inner circle, but this $MSTR story has gotten so out of hand, my only guess is this:

- MSTR could have sat and done nothing before they started pumping out $billons of prefs... it would have made MSTR boring (little buys, no sells), but it would have been stable https://t.co/ZMzXepzRME

- But the push into these prefs was based on him clearly thinking $BTC was about to moon — not sure what he saw to think that (4 year cycle, flows, ???) but that's the only reason to take that sort of miscalculated risk to screw up his balance sheet so badly -- he must have thought BTC was about to fly and he could easily pay the pref dividends with future BTC sales.

- Then BTC started falling, and the market got spooked because the $15 bn in prefs have a $1.5 bn/year annual dividend, so he raised $2 bn in cash via stock just to alleviate any near-term default concerns — that bought him almost 2 years of runway to pay dividends. Smart move

At that point, he could have chilled for a little, and even though he now has every stakeholder pinned against each other, there was at least no near term risk https://t.co/GmglaICO5M

- But then for some unknown reason, he decides to take that cash buffer and buyback 2029 maturity bonds instead of using it to fund the annual dividends (at a discount, so it's at least mildly accretive to MSTR). This is a baffling decision for a company with cash flow problems. Why pay off 0% coupon debt with the only cash you have?

The only bull case is that underestimating Saylor's capital markets chicanery has been a losing proposition for years. Maybe there was a plan?

That plan may just be selling BTC, which he will have to do eventually, but if he does this while BTC is in a death spriral it's going to crush BTC and MSTR. So again, why buyback the debt now and force your hand sooner than you have to?

Maybe he is going to refinance those converts with new longer-dated converts? He has sworn off converts, so I doubt it, but that would at least logically make sense.

But TLDR -- this is the first time that MSTR, BTC and Pref holders are really in bind. Someone is going to lose badly here, and it will happen in the next 4 months.

[Drew @NapaValleyTrade]

@DeepDishEnjoyer If it’s indoor fruit flies I find the Katchy duo works pretty well. https://t.co/yRhv8DVitX