Fwiw I've said this very often in the past. Win probabilities as trained on all plays typically struggle with edge cases such as late game scenarios when you can kneel out etc.
When the model assumes 91% FG from this spot, the win% after a 4th down conversion should be roughly 96%
@DaneMooreNBA The original sin is the Gobert trade and that's obviosuly not Finch's fault but because of the Gobert trade the Wolves don't have many levers left to pull besides a new coach
@DaneMooreNBA Connelly also not known as a hard nosed negotiator with extensions. Denver was known for giving very player friendly deals while he was there