Italian markets being hit hard as war of words between Rome and EU over Italian budget plans escalates. Reflecting investors' antipathy toward Italy right now, Italian/Spanish yield spread hits 203 bps, widest since 1997. https://t.co/z20eE6a8km
Welcome back king yield! Our models have shown that after some time in the wilderness, yield is returning as a dominant driver of all things FX and there is only one G10 central bank with high yields that are still going higher! #DXY#AUD
Erdogan is asking citizens again to take their dollars and euros and convert them to liras. A visit to bank branches in Istanbul today indicated that the opposite is happening https://t.co/oudSCQobEZ
The collapse of emerging market currencies from a modest reduction in Fed balance sheet and small rate rise shows the extent of the imbalances built by many economies in the QE lunacy years.
A short bond history lesson:
Highly indebtted societies cannot support high real yields. Low real yields are the best way to reduce debt burdens/deficits. As a reminder, the US held rates artificially low before and after WWII resulting in negative real returns for investors.
With an RBA that is not moving, you'd be forgiven for saying the short end of the rates market would be off the radar. Far from it, funding and repo and is practically the ONLY thing investors and borrowers are discussing.
Household debt is still growing faster than income. With rates so low can macro prudential policy alone close the gap? We have our doubts. https://t.co/EdqgBfefO0