Jonathan

"During rough patches, remember that opportunities are always within reach."

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE is #1, $AAOI is #2 used wrong wording above.

Generally a fan of:
- $SIVE (CPO lasers)
- $AAOI (End-to-End pluggable/cpo)
- Foci (FAU +passive components $TSM COUPE / $NVDA)
- Shunsin (Packaging/Test)
- Win Semi (foundry)
- $TSEM (foundry)
- $SOI (silicon photonics)
- Nextronics (CPO connector / cage thermal module)

And a few others.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI.

Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there.

Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air.

To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary.

Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser.

(Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth)

Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all.

So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater).

But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now).

Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too.

Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE.

Just a matter of time before volume ramps.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I’m confident in my $SIVE thesis playing out and am not selling a single share.

I tried to tell Swedish locals back at 6 SEK how compelling their frontier company was but they all transferred their shares to US retail since they couldn’t understand the concept of forward growth.

If US retail want to follow disinformation about a wireless director selling shares like any normal employee would, 3 months ago, back to institutions.

At the inflection of CPO/pluggable ramp… They’re free to as well.

I’m just trying to combat disinformation by sharing all the nuances.

[老马投资研究 @LMDFinance]

带你看看 #英伟达 #NVIDIA #CPO 服务器（交换机）内部是什么样子的

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year.

Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances.

Here’s the reason why:

1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings.

Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts.

-> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck
-> Win Semi = bottleneck

$SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck?

Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well).

Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing.

Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck.

$SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers)

2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO.

$NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors)

$AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well.

However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence)

Are all likely designed around $SIVE.

Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently)

If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers.

Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source.

$SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1):

If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO…

That makes them a chokepoint.

Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference).

So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note)

This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years.

All of this should play out next year.

And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

[Jonathan @NathanJoooo]

@aleabitoreddit Are you gonna hold a fan event in Taiwan?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I now am the #1 most subscribed to account on the entire X platform!

After overtaking Elon Musk today.

Thank you everyone for helping me achieve my goal.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Well, looks like it’s that time of the year again for $COIN, $HOOD, $CRCL and co.

So much for a “friendly administration” and “strategic reserve” if they’re trying to ram through Bank Lobbied Clarity Act bills…

To ban any form of innovation or competition against banks, with things like yields.

And nuking liquidity as they go (but strengthens the USD)

Valuations do seem compelling again if you’re swing trading.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

The difference between NASDAQ and EU listing:

$POET: $2.4B MC
-> Packages Sivers lasers
-> One $50m pre-production contract for warrants

> $XFAB: $1.7B MC
->SiC/GaN/MEMS/Silicon Photonics Foundry backed with EU CHIPS ACT, US CHIPS ACT PMT
-> Below replacement P/B value
-> $NVDA, $NOK direct eval of their pre-commercial SiPH foundry, volume ramping 2027/2028
-> $XFAB leading high-volume scaling of Europe's photonic supply chains as the foundry, with IMEC/CEA-Leti, Ligentec, Smart photonics, PHIX Photonics, Luceda Photonics, and Europe's photonic players under it.
-> Leading customers like $NVTS, $POWI, Lite-On
-> US from Dpt. of Commerce: "the only high-volume SiC foundry in the U.S."

[Ben Bajarin @BenBajarin]

Every cycle 10x more compute.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Wow… new extremely transformative news got released today.

Making a certain photonics company:

The effective upstream laser chokepoint for $NVDA NVLink fusion CPO ecosystem.

With their lasers now in Nvidia’s optical infrastructure supply chains.

Can anyone guess the name?

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables.

My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW.

Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today.

Is just one step of the way.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Tbh $XFAB lowkey reminds me of early $TSEM.

Just sub <$2B MC.

You basically never find a company with $NVDA and $NOK actively validating your pre-commercial silicon photonics foundry… (photonixFAB)

While getting CHIPS act/Gov grants to subsidize capex.

While leading the Europe’s effort to build a photonics supply chain.

Feels like that alone would justify valuations… but you get the power semi SiC/GaN operations for free too and all its assets.

CHIPS act 2 is coming out tomorrow, and $XFAB is listed in the photonics blueprints.

Did I miss something?

Or did markets miss something?

[Jonathan @NathanJoooo]

This is how short sellers turn into ashes. Don’t ever bet against @aleabitoreddit

[Teng Yan @tengyanAI]

Lip-bu tan:
"i'm first intel CEO who can speak mandarin and drink liquor with you.." 😂

"intel is an engineering company at its heart"

(computex live)

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

DID YOU LISTEN ANON?

Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration.

$SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform.

For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH.

This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history.

As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route.

I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue.

To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.

[PanSci 泛科學 @pansci_]

這是地獄還是天堂？淡江大橋完工了！ #PROMO #中華顧問工程司

[Jukan @COMPUTEX @jukan05]

CPO supply chain

[NVIDIA @nvidia]

Taipei runs on innovation and great food. 🥟🍧

If you're at GTC Taipei at Computex, visiting the night markets is a non-negotiable.

#NVIDIAGTC

[LIWEI_TW Capital @LIWEI_TWCapital]

Jensen at GTC: compute is the revenues

For those who are not in Taipei this week:

NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 – Keynote Pregame (Replay Available)

Hosted by Bruce Lu (Goldman Sachs) and Tracy Tsai (Gartner), covering:

• Taiwan’s AI ecosystem
• Advanced packaging
• Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
• AI infrastructure buildout
• Key industry trends ahead of Jensen Huang’s keynote

🎥 Watch here:
https://t.co/NprOGArI25

⸻

🔥 NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 Keynote — Jensen Huang Live from Taipei

Watch NVIDIA Founder & CEO Jensen Huang unveil the next generation of AI infrastructure, accelerated computing, networking, robotics, and the future roadmap of the AI industry.

🎥 YouTube Live:
https://t.co/4ShsNp4clG

🌐 Official NVIDIA Livestream:
NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 Keynote Livestream