James Nation

Managing Director at Forefront | Lecturer at Stanford | Ex Deputy Head of the Prime Minister's Policy Unit and Treasury Special Adviser to Rishi Sunak

[Michael Gove @michaelgove]

This is *excellent* news - driving growth in the right way

[James Nation @NationJames]

Potentially significant this - UK could face additional US tariffs for not fully implementing measures to tackle forced labour in imports. Dovetails with some debates in Parliament about particular supply chains.

[Peter Harrell @petereharrell]

USTR just released its Section 301 investigation on forced labor, and proposes a 10% tariff on 16 jurisdictions (including the EU) and 12.5% on other investigated countries. An extensive list of products is proposed to be exempt. Feels IEEPA-tariff like.

Analysis tomorrow.

[James Nation @NationJames]

Well worth your time. Also, great that James has nosed a piece on NZ supply side policy ahead of the first test.

[James Breckwoldt @jamesbreckwoldt]

🚨NEW POST BY ME🚨

What policies you want is only half the story. Equally important, but ignored, is how to implement what you want to do

Former NZ finance minister's 10 lessons for anyone serious about GSD and sorting out a country’s problems

🔗 https://t.co/zCj0CzEXeG

🧵👇

[Whitehall Sources @whitehallsource]

“You have to make a political decision here”

@NationJames explains the importance of political leaders being able to take hard decisions and suggests why the current Prime Minister might not be up to scratch when it comes to having his own ideals.

@CalumAM | @StraightTie

[James Nation @NationJames]

Good to see this.

[talkSPORT @talkSPORT]

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer spoke to Andy Goldstein & Darren Bent about Arsenal & their chances of winning the Champions League 🏆

[James Nation @NationJames]

On a narrow point, odd that Blair advocates for a VAT rise in 2024 in hindsight, given the resulting impact on inflation and how that too would have made life difficult for the Bank.

[James Nation @NationJames]

This. Clear limits. As another reminder, when the OBR costed the capital gains tax changes in Budget 2024, behavioural effects revised down the costing by 60%...

[Alex Wickham @alexwickham]

HMRC estimates that equalising capital gains tax with income tax would COST the exchequer some £6 billion a year because people will choose not to cash in their gains so no tax would be liable

In this @PhilAldrick piece on Labour’s wealth tax challenge: https://t.co/vscwm9RD7z

[James Nation @NationJames]

@Dan4Barnet Big shift, whatever political views and whatever the wider news

[James Nation @NationJames]

I wonder who could have briefed this one…

[John Rentoul @JohnRentoul]

Fine understatement from @GeorgeWParker (“subplot”=“howling backlash”) https://t.co/YL6g72bdXT

[James Nation @NationJames]

@MarketBlondes Yep, and I think also aimed at other parts of the Labour Party and e.g. the IPPR who might call for universal support

[James Nation @NationJames]

I also think, should Burnham win and get crowned, going off to Brussels first thing won’t be the look his team wants. Increasing probability of a delay.

[Ellen Milligan @EllenAMilligan]

New: Slow progress in talks + Starmer’s eroded authority has disrupted planning for the next UK-EU summit

UK+EU officials are worried there will be few deliverables + say Starmer may be seen by Brussels as too weak to offer the concessions they want
https://t.co/Xg3nUkTD9n

[James Nation @NationJames]

Was great to get the chance to do this and look back on 2022.

[Sascha O'Sullivan @saschaosullivan]

NEW EP 🎙️ How to replace a Prime Minister — and get away with it. Any leadership hopeful’s dummy guide to ruling no10 when the odds are against you

@Dannythefink
@theobertram
@NationJames
@claire_ainsley

Link below ⬇️

[James Nation @NationJames]

Bit political this, particularly given past fuss on the Treasury doing Opposition costings. Reminder that the then Shadow Chancellor was calling for a universal energy price freeze in 2022.

https://t.co/BS75QmDyA7

[James Nation @NationJames]

@maxtempers Yes, but I still think they make a downward adjustment which will have implications for the forecast. I don’t think they make no change. Treasury always used to ‘fear’ this May number.

[James Nation @NationJames]

Big judgement for the OBR in the autumn, this. Reminder that the last economic and fiscal outlook had net migration rising to 340k by the end of the forecast.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: Net migration to the UK fell to 171,000 from 331,000 in the year to December 2025 - the lowest point since 2012

[James Nation @NationJames]

@maxtempers True to an extent. Am not saying they will go straight to 171k. But they still have a judgement to make on any adjustment. And the May number is always a significant one in weighing that up.

[James Nation @NationJames]

This is an area where Burnham (hopefully) doubles down.

[Sam Dumitriu @Sam_Dumitriu]

This is exciting.

British tram projects take longer and cost four times as much as they do in Germany.

So Labour have announced a 'mass transit taskforce' (Fingleton for Trams).

The taskforce includes David Milner (who co-wrote the @BritainRemade/@createstreets paper that revealed the huge cost gap.)

And it looks like the Govt will devolve the Transport Works Act Order process so West Yorkshire can grant itself planning permission to build a tram in Leeds (without asking central govt).

This is a key ask of @BritainRemade.

(Credit to @Ben_A_Hopkinson, @JP_Spencer_, and @dc_lawrence for pushing for this.)

https://t.co/AHslY3O9Wi

[James Nation @NationJames]

A difficult OBR forecast plus cuts to unprotected departments probably means whoever is Chancellor would come back for more. They should be careful what they wish for on property tax - many MPs will want giveaways. Makes raising £ hard. Recall that Brown abandoned a revaluation.

[Alex Wickham @alexwickham]

It is increasingly inevitable that if there is a new prime minister then tax rises will be key to their agenda

Wes Streeting today calls for capital gains tax and income tax to be equalised, arguing “we need a wealth tax that works”

That puts tax at the top of the conversation in the leadership campaign despite Andy Burnham’s team saying he doesn’t want to talk about it during this by-election

It seems likely any new leader would massively increase taxes on investments and wealth

Burnham has previously called for the top rate of income tax to rise and council tax to be reevaluated

He is not committed committed to keeping Labour’s manifesto promises not to raise income tax, national insurance, VAT or corporation tax

Economists have warned that hiking capital gains rates risks introducing distortions that raise less revenue than expected

Via @EllenAMilligan @tomelleryrees https://t.co/A8rnEeF9v4

[James Nation @NationJames]

I also think it may just simply be: treasury advice will be clear that we are already at the revenue maximising rate for CGT

[Sam Dumitriu @Sam_Dumitriu]

Journalists should ask the following:

Will he index capital gains to inflation? (Or will he tax people who haven’t actually made money in real terms?)

Will there be a rate of return allowance to adjust to avoid discouraging investment (relative to consumption)?

Will there be any changes to the treatment of losses? (Or is he content to massively penalise entrepreneurial risktaking?)

Is there going to be an exit tax? (Or will he allow people to avoid the tax by moving to Dubai?)

There is a case for a version of CGT/Income Tax equalisation (see Mirrlees Review), but it will likely raise significantly less than £12bn.

[James Nation @NationJames]

Déjà vu on this one. Government talks to supermarkets about where consumers are feeling the pinch, and given lobbying on e.g. packaging reforms. Leak to the press on ‘price caps’. Forces the strong denial. Someone in defra or number ten will have been burned.

[BBC Breakfast @BBCBreakfast]

'This rumoured story about caps on food prices I can be really clearly with you, this is not something that we are looking at'

On #BBCBreakfast Dan Tomlinson MP, Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, dismissed reports that the government is urging UK supermarkets to limit food prices in return for easing regulations

https://t.co/JXzrOY9HA8