SARS-CoV-2 updates

[SARS-CoV-2 updates @NcovEpi]

@Alan_G_Smith_BC @KindrachukJason @rufovillosum @DrJudyStone @DrJacobsRad @ianjamesyoung70 @SariArhoHavren @BaldingsWorld Hmmmmm...

[Tomas Pueyo @tomaspueyo]

Did Sweden admit they were wrong after all? After weeks pushing for a #coronavirus strategy that would result in herd immunity, saying that deaths wouldn't be that bad, the chief epi for Sweden is now surprised at the death toll.

Thread [1/7]
https://t.co/xtZbJPg2Hb

[SARS-CoV-2 updates @NcovEpi]

@justin_hart You're not owning the Left. You're not more enlightened than epidemiologists because you play around with data on your computer. You're just another regurgitated Silicon Valley tech nerd with a right-wing victim complex and a lack of critical thicking.

[SARS-CoV-2 updates @NcovEpi]

Silicon valley nerds truly are the worst. They'll act like experts on EVERYTHING and denounce anyone who actually knows what they're talking about. Sometimes I wonder what it's like for your brain to be in such a constant state of confirmation bias...

[Justin Hart @justin_hart]

Andy is spot on. Moving the starting date up changes EVERYTHING.

I’ve given SO MUCH DEFERENCE to the virology/epi crowd. When they slapped my hand I took it in stride b/c of their “evidence”. I even defended Birx/Fauci as just “overly risk-averse.”

Changing my tune now.

[SARS-CoV-2 updates @NcovEpi]

On top of all of this, it is highly likely that deaths have been undercounted in NYC (https://t.co/sptrTkAGTH)
So a fatality rate of 0.1% is completely unrealistic.

[Richard Neher @richardneher]

Many preliminary #SARSCoV2 seroprevalence studies are published (or rather publicized) these days and results >2% are often taken as evidence that #COVID19 is more widespread than estimated. Keep in mind that we expect prevalence >10% in many places that have been hit hard.

[Richard Neher @richardneher]

The preprint on #SARSCoV2 seroprevalence in Santa Clara County continues to make headlines. They estimate 2-4% of the population had #COVID19 by April 4 implying an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0.1 to 0.2%.

But there are many reasons to be very skeptical. Thread...

[Chao Song @chaosong]

1. Lots of news reports emerged recently suggesting China under-reporting or faking COVID19 cases. Unfortunately, most of these reports did not discuss much scientific evidence. This long thread is my attempt to discuss existing scientific evidence on this issue.

[Amanda @Manda_like_wine]

Nevada, a state in one of the richest countries in the world, has painted social-distancing boxes on a concrete parking lot for the homeless to sleep in.

[Michael Del Moro @MikeDelMoro]

Breaking: Governor Cuomo says NY State now has 2,382 cases. That's 1,008 more than yesterday. #COVID19

[Pret @Pret]

This one is on us 💚

[SARS-CoV-2 updates @NcovEpi]

@onisillos https://t.co/3joxVVlvc4

[Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch]

Show me a seasonal flu that leads to triage of whom to let die in icus despite intense social distancing & I’ll stop worrying. Or an exponentially growing uncontrolled pathogen that infects 1% then “dissipates”. This is wishful fantasy not contrarianism. True we need more data.

[Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch]

Show me a seasonal flu that leads to triage of whom to let die in icus despite intense social distancing & I’ll stop worrying. Or an exponentially growing uncontrolled pathogen that infects 1% then “dissipates”. This is wishful fantasy not contrarianism. True we need more data.

[SARS-CoV-2 updates @NcovEpi]

@onisillos and the US has more than six times the population of Italy, 10,000 deaths is clearly a flawed estimate. (4)

[SARS-CoV-2 updates @NcovEpi]

@onisillos The assumption of a CFR of 0.3% and an infection rate of 1% in the US to work out the number of deaths is nonsensical, especially when much more detailed models exist for this. Given that Italy has 2,502 deaths confirmed at present, which will undoubtedly increase further (3)