@ShaunFitzzzy@ryancohen Does it feel to you like there’s been another big buyer in the market? Feels that way to me … the RC buys have been pretty clear. But it doesn’t explain all of the buying …
@SahilBloom As a runner in Houston, its incredible--we are entering a time of year when humidity rapidly drops, and you gain speed every week. If you understand how dew point works (water can't evaporate off the skin, body can't cool), it makes sense--I think that's the key number to track
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@sierrastrades man, you gotta actually read it instead of using AI. They disclosed that their key business purpose right now is capital allocation. That's the whole holding company story
The thing that jumps out at me most is that over three consecutive sessions they've retained almost exactly 51% of volume as next-day OI; half the volume isn't showing up in next day OI.
And because the option trades for about $21, and the strike is $40, selling 100 puts generates about $210k, while assignment on roughly 49 of those puts costs about $196k (49 × 100 × $40). The ~49% "disappearance rate" happens to make the premium generated by 100 contracts approximately sufficient to fund assignment of the shares associated with those ~49 contracts. Is someone building a position? How/why? Probably some kind of market maker plumbing tied to the convertibles, but I'm not smart enough to know what's going on. Only smart enough to see the weird ratio of volume and OI all week and to ask ... wtf does that mean
The interesting thing here is relationship between Vol and OI. Every day, half of between 50.5 and 51.7% of volume hits OI. At $40p, with sub-$20 price, this means the premium basically enough to exercise half. My hypothesis is that whoever is selling these is taking the premium, exercising half, and building a position without lifting the price too much. Three consecutive sessions retain almost exactly 51% of volume as next-day OI, leaving ~49% unaccounted for by net OI growth.
To do the math, at $21-22 per put, selling 100 puts generates about $210k–$220k, while assignment on roughly 49 of those puts costs about $196k. Interesting, no? What say ye @martyfinkel