Neill Aarons

Futures Scalp Trader, Market Technician.
Investor in Comm RE
Nothing I post is intended to be investment advice.

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

it's so bad its good

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

Could be "the tell"

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Call me crazy but I believe we are in the process of forming a major double top on Nasdaq.

Valuations don't grow to the sky and the inflation problem is far from over.

Today's weakness in megacaps despite the Fed pivot is the tell.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Call me crazy but I believe we are in the process of forming a major double top on Nasdaq.

Valuations don't grow to the sky and the inflation problem is far from over.

Today's weakness in megacaps despite the Fed pivot is the tell.

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

Exhaustion ahead?

[Tier1 Alpha @t1alpha]

48% of $SPX components have an RSI greater than 70. Most overbought in at least a decade.👀

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

so, you're saying the market is a little "Toppy"?

[David Settle, CMT @davidsettle]

Not common for both to be moving up at the same time much less going parabolic at the same time $QQQ $IWM

[David Settle, CMT @davidsettle]

Not common for both to be moving up at the same time much less going parabolic at the same time $QQQ $IWM

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

Position yourself appropriately

[David Settle, CMT @davidsettle]

In the past 20 years, $SPX had 3 other times where it had a 3-month losing streak following a positive month. Late 2007-early 2008 (correction phase of bear market), 2008 (washout phase of bear market) and 2011 (correction). The other two corrections (similar to now) BOTH led to 5-month losing streaks

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

@KobeissiLetter So...... What happens Next?

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

@LayahHeilpern I was broke, and I'm not anymore. Freedom, Every Time. (although 300 milly makes it interesting)

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

Gulp.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The debt-to-income ratio for all homebuyers in the US just hit 40% for the first time in history.

Even in the 2008 financial crisis, this ratio peaked at ~39%.

This comes as total household debt just hit a record $17.1 trillion and credit card debt crossed $1 trillion for the first time ever.

Consumers are borrowing at a record pace all while savings are declining and rates are rising.

What's the long-term plan here?

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

@ElonMuskAOC Tesla stock.
(did I win?)

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

The Market feels very focused. as "they" keep throwing shade.

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

“Consensus is now warning that equity markets could be soft in September. But we .. expect the exact opposite .. We see S&P 500 gaining 2%-3% in September, pushing back to July highs of >4,600 ..”

@fundstrat $SPX

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

an object in motion....

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

When the $SPX is up 15-20% YTD thru Aug 28 ..

Returns for the rest of the year:

(via ⁦@NautilusCap⁩)

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

This contradicts those who believe stocks have ripped, so you should sell and park your money in bonds for the rest of year.

[Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla]

When the $SPX is up 15-20% YTD thru Aug 28 ..

Returns for the rest of the year:

(via ⁦@NautilusCap⁩)

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

@ElonMuskAOC 17

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

Lower job openings. another sign of labor softening.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Over past 3 months, 2.55 million job openings have been shed, which is largest 3-month decline on record

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

Less people Quitting. Softening Labor mkt.

[Liz Thomas @LizThomasStrat]

The quits rate fell to 2.3% in July and is now firmly back to the pre-pandemic baseline. This has historically led the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker by ~9mos, and suggests wage deceleration ahead.

[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

yet, Prices not dropping.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Mortgage demand is now at its lowest level since 1995 and still falling SHARPLY.

To put this in perspective, mortgage demand in 2005 was ~300% above current levels.

Since 2021, mortgage demand is down a massive 60%.

Meanwhile, existing home sales are down 16% this year, their lowest since 2010.

No one wants to sell and no one wants to buy.

Truly historic times.

[The Deep View @theDeepView]

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[Neill Aarons @Neill714]

Wow! and Household formation is running above 2 Million

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Median cost to buy a house hits a new record of $2,748/mo, up a MASSIVE 90% since 2020.

In other words, buying a house today costs nearly $33,000 per year.

This is 46% of the median PRE-TAX household income in the US.

Post-tax, homebuyers in the US are spending nearly 70% of their income on home payments.

Meanwhile, the median monthly apartment rent just hit a fresh record of $1,859/mo.

How has it become to difficult to have a place to live?