NDV

NextGen Digital Venture aims to provide trusted cryptocurrencies exposure for traditional finance

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

关于 Saylor 接下来会怎么走，补一条历史视角——因为想判断他的下一步，得先知道他经历过什么。
先纠正一个流传很广的误解：Saylor 没破过产。他经历的是更刺激的东西。
2000 年 3 月，审计师逼 MicroStrategy 重述财报，原先报告的盈利一夜变成亏损，股价一天从 $226 砸到 $86，他个人一天蒸发约 60 亿美元，创下当时的纪录。SEC 指控、和解、不承认过错。到 2002 年，公司只值约 4,000 万美元，较峰值缩水约 98%。
但有两件事值得记住：公司没死，他用二十年把它重建了起来；而且整个崩盘和指控过程里，他靠 Class B 超级投票权，一股没丢掉控制权。
第二次接近归零是 2022 年。那是他唯一一次用抵押贷款——Silvergate 那笔 2 亿美元、拿 BTC 抵押的钱——BTC 跌到 $21k 附近时触发了追保恐慌。他扛了过去，2023 年折价约两成提前还清，然后做了一件很说明问题的事：彻底戒掉抵押和保证金，转向无抵押长久期债，再到今天的永续优先股。
把这两次叠起来，Saylor 的行为非常清楚：控制权不可让渡（所以今天的优先股几乎没有投票权）；绝不做被强制的卖方，并主动拆掉一切能逼他出手的结构（先去掉抵押、再去掉到期日）；快速和解、控制叙事、向前看，不在损失里纠缠；对债权人按时履约以保住市场准入，但只给他们求偿顺序、不给治理权。
一句话：他一生都在用结构，消灭别人对他的决策权。
但永续优先股是把双刃剑。它干掉了追保和到期风险，却引入了一个他的控制权管不住的新东西——累积的现金股息，加上一只对信心极度敏感、已经跌破面值的 STRC。治理可以剥夺，现金不能无限推迟。这是他”无强制卖方”信条的顶点，也是一个更隐蔽的逼仓机制的起点。
于是有两种推演。
老剧本（2000 式）：死守仓位、加倍下注叙事、用控制权硬扛，把痛苦往资本结构下层推。具体就是把”绝不卖币”当教条死守，即便跑道只剩半年；继续用越来越贵的条款发 STRC 护盘；动用投票权和求偿瀑布，保住高级求偿和自己的控制权，让最 junior 的 STRD 和普通股去吸收伤害。这条路的风险是：如果 BTC 继续跌，他最终仍会被逼成他拒绝当的那个强制卖方——只是更晚、更乱、更狠，更初级优先股和小股东被碾，而他依然保住控制权。
进化剧本：提前主动去杠杆（折价回购 2029 可转债，长得就是这个样子）；愿意做不受欢迎但审慎的事——有节奏、提前告知地卖一小部分 BTC，锁定股息覆盖、拉长跑道，把”绝不卖”当指引而非自杀契约；放慢在惩罚性利率上继续叠加现金义务；为长期 机构化运作提升可信度，牺牲短期估值——就像他 2002 年接受一家只值 4,000 万的小公司、再用二十年重建那样。这条路的风险更微妙：学费并不免费。哪怕是有序、克制的卖币，也会击穿整个股权溢价赖以存在的”绝不卖”品牌。最理性的那一步，恰恰会引爆 mNAV 叙事。可能根本就没有一个好的结果
最有意思的一点：那笔 2029 回购，两种剧本都能解释。进化版本是趁还能动手时提前去杠杆；“老剧本”的读法是花光仅有的现金去守住仓位、而不是先保住近端义务——这正是 2000 式的为仓位和叙事加倍下注。同一个动作，指向相反的两个人。
所以别盯着这一步，看下一步：如果接下来是有序、提前沟通的卖币加上放慢发行，他在走情景二；如果是死扛不卖加上不计成本猛发 STRC，他在重演情景一。
我长期依然乐观。但短期，这大概是 25 年来，他第一次面对一个控制权解决不了的约束。拭目以待。

@Rubywang

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

BTC rips into $74–75k with ETF inflows back on the tape, but the quieter part is how little coin is actually sitting on-exchange after all the treasury hoovering. People are treating “more inflow = higher price” as linear, because the visible float is thin enough that even modest spot demand can gap it. That only works until one of the concentrated holders decides to distribute or an AP/OTC desk sources size back onto venues, and suddenly the same thinness shows up as air on the bid. How much of this rally is real demand versus just a temporary supply vacuum?

#Bitcoin #MarketStructure #Liquidity

https://t.co/JObxNuOjeo

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

SEC and CFTC signing an MOU reads like “less fragmentation,” so people are leaning into it as instant clarity for risk and listings. But it’s still two statutes and two tests, and coordination can just turn into a tighter dual‑compliance checklist that slows marginal tokens/products while the flow concentrates in regulated wrappers. That story only holds if we actually get harmonized guidance that survives the first hard classification fight and the first enforcement sweep that hits both sides at once.

#SEC #CFTC #CryptoRegulation

https://t.co/21CNWNaZB6

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

MSTR just put another $1.28B to work for ~18k BTC, taking the stack to ~739k, and the market keeps treating it like a one-way spot liquidity drain. But this only works cleanly while the buys are effectively subsidized by an open equity window—ATM/common dilution and perpetual coupons are real friction, and they tighten fast when tape turns. If that cost of capital backs up, the “always buying” cadence becomes a lot less mechanical.

#BTC #MSTR #CryptoMarkets

https://t.co/PaCiCYQIDp?

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

Atkins blessing the CLARITY Act is being traded like the last green light before the real money shows up. That only works if the statute lands with clean, executable definitions and the agencies don’t drag the fight into multi-quarter rulemaking and sequencing. Momentum can get priced long before text, committee calendars, and implementation dates are knowable, and that gap is where positioning gets noisy. Until we see actual language and a credible path from passage to usable rails, what are people really long here?

#CLARITYAct #SEC #CryptoRegulation

https://t.co/KkPJYfpjL9

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

Kraken getting a limited master account at the KC Fed is being traded like “crypto has Fed plumbing now,” but it’s still just settlement access, not a backstop. People are implicitly pricing smoother fiat movement as lower counterparty/liquidity risk across the stack. That breaks down fast if stress hits and there’s no IOR or discount window to lean on, so everyone still has to source funding the old way. The real test is whether this stays a contained pilot or starts behaving like a scalable bridge in messy markets.

#Fedwire #Kraken #MarketStructure

https://t.co/NnZUKCLJqW

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

Meta floating a stablecoin payments relaunch for FB/IG/WhatsApp in H2’26 sounds like “distribution finally meets rails,” especially with third-party providers taking the infra risk and a new wallet to capture the UX. But this only works if the source story is real and specific enough to price—vendor names, jurisdiction, settlement model, and what “native wallet” actually means legally. Until we see primary docs or on-record details, this is just narrative optionality that can evaporate the moment compliance or platform policy gets pinned down.

#stablecoins #payments

[Christian (Building @0xinfini) @Christianeth]

明天发布重大更新🥹它回来了

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

White House doing a third crypto sit-down into a “stablecoin yield” deadline is already trading like a deal is forming, but we’re all leaning on vibes without a clean factual anchor. That matters because people will position around whether yield gets carved out, capped, or effectively banned under a market-structure wrapper. This only works if the actual text, agencies, and timelines line up with what’s being implied in the room, and not just what’s getting repeated on CT. Until we see something verifiable, the whole thing can flip from momentum to air-pocket fast.

#stablecoins #regulation

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

Figure rolling out FGRD and upsizing a $150m raise is trading on the idea that “stock, but onchain with T+0” is immediately bankable and liquid. That only works if the legal wrapper, transfer restrictions, and venue access are clean enough that real buyers can actually circulate it, not just subscribe to an offering and sit. If secondary liquidity is gated or fragmented, you end up with instant finality on a market that can’t really clear size, and the story turns into a custody/compliance product instead of a trading product. Until we see where it actually trades and who can touch it, it’s hard to know what’s real here.
#Tokenization #RWA #MarketStructure

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

BlackRock “entering DeFi” reads like the next leg of institutional adoption, so people naturally map it to sticky inflows and deeper onchain liquidity. But without a primary-source anchor, this can just be a sentiment trade where social volume gets mistaken for actual balance sheet risk moving. It only works if we see real onchain footprints—size, cadence, counterparties—not just partnerships, pilots, or integration language. Until then, the market is mostly trading ambiguity, and that tends to behave very differently when the tape turns.
#DeFi #Institutions #CryptoMarkets

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

SEC went up to the Hill talking “alignment” on a federal crypto oversight framework, and the market wants to hear that as a path to cleaner rules and lower compliance drag. But that only works if there’s an actual legislative backbone and agencies don’t keep filling the gaps with enforcement and overlapping definitions. Until we see where lines get drawn on custody, broker/dealer status, and what counts as a security vs commodity, “modernized oversight” is just a nicer wrapper on the same uncertainty. And it gets messy fast if Congress moves slowly while the rulebook keeps changing in real time.

#SEC #CryptoRegulation #MarketStructure

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

HK now talking margin financing + perps for pro clients, and a small set of stablecoin licenses, and everyone’s reading it as “more leverage + better rails = more real money flow.” That only works if the stablecoin regime actually expands convertibility and banking capacity rather than bottlenecking it into a few issuers with conservative limits. This breaks down when redemptions/mints get throttled, balance sheets pull lines, and you end up with wider basis and venue fragmentation instead of smooth arbitrage. Until we see who gets licensed and what their mint/redemption windows look like in stress, the market impact stays a little theoretical.

#HongKong #Stablecoins #CryptoDerivatives

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

MicroStrategy confirms ongoing Bitcoin accumulation: ~$3.5B added in past two weeks after brief pause.

Corporate treasury conviction remains firm, amplifying leverage to upside while elevating tail-risk exposure in volatile regimes.

Constructive for institutional narratives around Bitcoin as strategic reserve asset.

#DigitalAssets #Institutional #Bitcoin

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

https://t.co/sxyazZy82z

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

$MSTR will remain in MSCI indexes.

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

文章回顾 | 动察专访NDV创始合伙人Jason Huang：深挖 Upbit 赴美上市
https://t.co/sgiLe88WHA

[动察Beating @BeatingOfficial]

https://t.co/nsoJr74y8m

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

https://t.co/X2Nf6ix0mw

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

The cost of capital is rising, but the cost of "FOMO" is higher.

Data check:
1. Howard Marks: S&P P/E >23x = Dead money for a decade (-2% to +2% returns).
2. Current Reality: S&P P/E is ~25x.
3. Smart Money: Buffett holds record cash reserves.

When the two best capital allocators in history are aggressively risking off, the burden of proof is on the bulls.

Are your BTC bags really strong enough to fight this level of macro gravity?

Patience is the only alpha left right now.

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

Howard Marks on the 10 year returns of the SP500 when you buy it at a 23 P/E ratio or higher.

Right now it’s 24-25.

In every case the 10 year return range was between -2% and +2% best case scenario.

Essentially a lost decade.

[NDV @NextGen_Venture]

NDV创始人Jason与雪球《厚雪长波》进行了一次深度对谈！面对今年比特币从12万美元高位回落、稳定币规模突破3000亿美元等现象，主持人七一代表广大“币圈小白”，向Jason抛出一系列直击本质的疑问。

在这场对话中，Jason以跨越一二级市场的实战视角，拆解了数字资产领域的核心逻辑：

🔹 比特币：它究竟是“数字黄金”还是高风险资产？为什么四年减半周期的影响正在减弱，而它与美股的相关性却在增强？

🔹 稳定币：当USDT发行商成为美债重要持有者，它是在颠覆银行，还是成为了“监管套利”的新形式银行？百人公司如何创造惊人利润？

🔹 未来：AI与区块链将如何结合？大国博弈下，数字货币为何成为美国布局的新战略方向？

这份干货满满的对谈，能帮你穿越迷雾，理解技术、金融与地缘政治在新领域的交汇碰撞。

欢迎大家收听完整播客，一起建立更清晰的认知坐标！

链接：https://t.co/6f5wR9v8uV

#比特币 #稳定币 #区块链 #数字资产 #播客推荐