One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
@Clemson_Addict I dont think Darline should have ever been there to begin with. Terrible move by trump. You dont get someone's job because youre next of kin. Ralph Norman would have been a better option. But all Darline did was a smear campaign, no one wanted to vote for that.
@soufkack@davidpollack47@GamecockFB Guess we will see how it plays out but Im not getting my hopes up. If we beat UGA and go 9-3. Then Ill get my hopes up. Lol
@GavinNewsom I bet he is not able to sleep over this scary tweet. What you going to do? Raid his home.. oh you tried that.. unalive him? Oh that failed too. Impeach him? Oh wait that didnt work either.
"These are plays that would make you smash your controller if it happened to you and you're playing a video game." 🎮
@colecubelic breaks down LaNorris Sellers' performance against Oklahoma.
These are my top 5 reasons why college football attendance is dwindling:
1. The death of regional games and rivalries. Too many schools are now in conferences that make no geographic sense. Having gone to Arizona State, seeing annual games with the LA, Bay Area, Oregon & Washington schools replaced w/ conference games against schools from Kansas, Texas, Florida, Ohio and West Virginia doesn't resonate. This is being felt everywhere.
2. Conference imbalance. We now have a world where the Big Ten and SEC are inherently favored for earning CFP bids and higher rankings before each season begins. The ACC and Big 12 are Tier 2 leagues, and the G6 schools are essentially in a separate class. This has produced an uneven, biased landscape that is entirely unfair.
3. Noise pollution. I go to college football games to tailgate, watch football and listen to marching bands - not for blaring music and sound effects, hyperventilating PA announcers, and flashing light shows. The environment has been degraded.
4. Expanded College Football Playoff. We've entered an era where if your school isn't contending for a CFP bid, it's playing out the string.
5. The transfer portal. Annual free agency has many schools turning over rosters by more than 50-75%. The connections between players and fans has greatly eroded. Most fans can't name 10 guys on their teams any more. That's not ideal.
The sport needs more stability, the return of regional conferences, better game day atmospheres, and a more level playing field.