Nick Sofocleous

Classic car lover. Arsenal. Stock markets.

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@TgMacro @KobeissiLetter 😂

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@darioperkins I would think letting them off lightly would be far worse for investment more broadly.
My hot take

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

Think same

[dMacro/dBS @dMacro_dBS]

It’s no secret that several large rates pods/funds have blown up over the past couple of weeks. We’re all trying to rationalize the price action... On the obliteration of the 5y, I think this is much more about negative-convexity hedging (mortgages) than a genuine growth rerating

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@VolatilityVIX Do you have the appropriate of bedrooms?

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@ConvexityDredge @RudyHavenstein That’s super interesting, I have likened it to 1995-2000 also but more aligned to currently being 1996-97.
Thank you for this

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@ToddFGordon I like this Todd, thank you

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@ConvexityDredge I just came across David and he seems to have a rational take.
Another bought of Convexity…?????

[RiverRoadPartners @partners_road]

The proportion of “experts” on X is inversely proportional to a peak in the narrative. Epidemiology, Ukraine, Hormuz/underwater mining, supply chains and memory stocks - all have had their moment here.
Welcome to all of the fixed income experts!

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@amitisinvesting I sort of like the fact it might take friction OUT of my life rather than what I have seen is life ADDING friction!!!
I like that

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

This is so good and so simple….wonderful

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Sectors’ % of stocks at 4w and 52w highs

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

I remember that with the noise surrounding Zweig also Tom…..

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

Positive breadth at the close on Monday will bring a 3rd McClellan Oscillator bottom, higher than the last two, which is a powerful bullish signal. We last saw one of those at the March 30, 2026 low.

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

Wow

[SentimenTrader @sentimentrader]

Money still moves the market.

The M2 Stock Market Model just flipped to +2, its most favorable reading, with both components positive as of August. Since 1960, a dollar held in the S&P 500 only during +2 months grew to $21.65, versus $6.59 at +1.

This week's TradingEdge Weekly video covers the M2 signal, a market environment reading entering the danger zone, a gold model turning favorable, and what history says about stocks after a first rate hike.

The full SentimenTrader market view: https://t.co/0DjVvGV1Tq

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@LukeGromen @RPMComo Truly great track

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@YankeeGunner Right? I can’t believe so many pundits think they are on the road to becoming a “well oiled machine”.

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

Terrific….

[Handre @Handre]

Jamestown nearly starved itself to death through a spreadsheet decision made in London. The Virginia Company established the colony in 1607 as a joint-stock venture, but crucially mandated that all food, land, and production flow into a common store, distributed equally regardless of individual contribution.

Then, the predictable result: by the winter of 1609-1610, roughly 500 colonists shrank to 60 survivors eating rats, leather, and each other.

Collectivized production destroys the price signal that tells producers what to make and how hard to work. Every bushel of corn John Smith grew belonged equally to the man who slept through harvest. This structured incentive to produce nothing masquerades as generosity.

Governor Thomas Dale fixed this in 1614. He allocated private plots. Output increased dramatically, immediately. Colonists who owned their yield guarded it, cultivated it, and traded it. Property rights attached effort to reward. The famine ended.

The Virginia Company's London directors could not know local conditions, soil quality, individual skill, or daily weather. No central administrator ever can. That knowledge lives dispersed across thousands of actors, readable only through prices and ownership. Strip those mechanisms and you get Jamestown's "starving time," every time, without exception, across every continent and every century that has tried the experiment since.

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

Absolute quality….

[OddStats @OddStats]

SPX has opened at the highest point of the day for 3 straight sessions.

What does it mean?

Fuck if I know, but here are some forward returns and worst draw downs over the next 5 days.

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@Sofia50020Sofia 1992

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

Brilliant

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

Inigo Fraser Jenkins (@AB_insights) on why the US track record isn't the whole story:

Rank markets by market cap in 1899: the US and UK compounded beautifully.

Japan, Russia, Germany, Austria-Hungary, France? Effectively wiped out.

"There is this inherent survivorship bias in the way people think about long-run returns."

Listen: https://t.co/mfnaUo1DNT

Watch: https://t.co/RnIrcDOgFb

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

@RPMComo My blood boils

[Nick Sofocleous @Nick716Jane]

Well known, now the question is what it looks like when reog’d

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: LIV Golf has filed for bankruptcy protection, per Bloomberg.