Nik

Gas / LNG / Energy Analyst - Views are my own

[Nik @Nick73290252]

Just to highlight how bullish Europe's gas market has been in April (mostly weather driven), it just had its first summer month where there wasnt enough supply to meet demand (outside of storage) in atleast 10 years

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@Ronh999 postponement of turnaround refinery maintenance shown really clearly here, supports crude #OOTT demand (and also a bit of #natgas demand) vs previous seasons

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@USAEnergyNatGas There's been a bit of talk about this in Europe, we think it was behind the initial pump of Jan-Mar TTF to 7eur, now much much lower. Unlike US and HH, deliverability can be managed better by storage as Europe doesn't suffer from DJF freeze off impact #natgas

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@firstenercast @USAEnergyNatGas It's not coming back, even for the 1 remaining line, too much political, logistical, regularity and safety issues. Also see other comment about damaged lines from other blast, very interesting and didn't even know about that...

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@DiveBomb321 Ahh... Cramer AND Goldman getting bullish oil?? Well we had a good run

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@MeteoMark @grok Strangely strong agreement across ECMWF, NOAA and these models for a cold DJF, or COLD Q1 NE /East coast
#natgas

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@Lclimateguy Winter 09/10 comparisons making me want to rotate oil #oott longs into winter #natgas longs here

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@firstenercast Don't worry, I've been reliably informed Germany has abundant baseload nuclear energy capacity to offset it's critically low natgas storage

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@CRUDEOIL231 @kogasman Winter natgas now oversold and bullish div. here. Last Winter the HH (and regional hubs) spike was needed to reduce some US LNG exports, that target to cancel some LNG exports is double the price of last winter for next winter. Could get spicy...

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@PipelineFlows It's done more than 4032 mmcfd in the past, 4400 mmcfd should be possible again after peak summer heat

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@Holy_Helicity @natgaskneel Agree, we saw it last year with that Jan and Feb contact rally. Any small risk of a cold week in Jan and Feb, with that demand and prod freeze risk (Z) F and G are getting too cheap here

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@OliDugmore When the alternative is methane leaking Permian shale production or Middle East or Russian-non-stop- flaring unregulated oil production, regulated North Sea production is massively more environmentally friendly. But you know that, and so do your foreign sponsors

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@sstormFX @CelsiusEnergyFM It's just 6bcf less y o y, not 67 bcf

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@HFI_Research so it is basically sanctioned Iran VLCCs and (Iran-friendly) Qatargas Q-Flex LNG tankers going in

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@CRUDEOIL231 @Ish_Babulal Well, our desk were all saying past 2 days there will be a bullish EIA release, so we know there will be an Axios fake headline within the half hour of the release. Lo and behold. Feels pretty rigged

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@ira_joseph @ColumbiaUEnergy Asia has to replace the Qatari volumes somehow, Oz LNG plants about to go on strike, trains down in Bintulu, maintenance at some US plants etc. JKM just strengthening to price the next marginal replacement cargo from further and further afield

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@USAEnergyNatGas One is more regulated with penalties for not filling to target levels, the other isn't. That is why there is a difference when the market is backwardated

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@JavierBlas not sure about that - NW Eur #natgas storage going to struggle being at all time lows through q2. Impact of Qatar will hit Europe in May, barely no storage build in H2 April. Risks also at Turkstream, no Qatar LNG for months as global demand seasonality picks up + Russia LNG ban

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@PipelineFlows Thanks for the useful analysis. Did Cheniere state that there was no major maintenance this year specifically at Corpus C or across both plants also at Sabine? Sabine Pass did have a big turnaround shut down in June last year

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@DannyDayan5 @CRUDEOIL231 Well... I'm no longer bearish here, I think it deserves to price higher soon as we get out of the influence of the very mild Spring HDDs. Midwest, EAST & SC inventories are still in a deficit this summer

[Nik @Nick73290252]

@CRUDEOIL231 @DannyDayan5 Looks like US had record low gas weighted HDDs in Mar+Apr, temp corrected balances in L48 are still tight, and tightening even more as production is deferred and into more coal to gas switching. Could be some surprised coming for #natgas