Nick

Self-taught stock junkie | Posting my unpolished $ticker ideas 🐻🐂 | Reposting analysis from my favorite professionals and macro data | Not financial advice

[Nick @NickSenese_]

My $NVDA bear thesis is that demand has been pulled forward by a handful of cash rich trillion dollar companies, and that capex falls off a cliff as we enter a recession. In this scenario, the stock drops 70-90% as revenues turn negative

[Nick @NickSenese_]

Nasdaq topped two months ago. S&P wouldve as well if it weren’t for historic call option buying. Junk bonds and the Transports have continued selling off during the rally in the broader markets. Japan and Korea continue to get walloped. We’re a lot closer than people think $SPY $QQQ

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

The table below shows how many days before the recession starts the stock market peaks. All the numbers are negative, meaning the stock market peaks before the recession starts.

In July 1990, the recession started 11 days later when Iraq invaded Kuwait. The price of oil went up 400%.

In 2020, the recession started 17 days later when the global economy was shut down because of a pandemic.
---
So unless a Global crisis forms in the next couple of days, the stock market is telling us we are at a minimum several months away from a recession, if even then.

[Nick @NickSenese_]

Far too few people are actually seeing the forest here. The amount of global economic activity being pulled forward as a result of these fanciful obligation figures is the only thing that has prevented multiple quarters of negative GDP prints in the US & a global recession $SPY

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

CNBC anchors silent after Sara Eisen does the math, shows hyperscaler off-balance sheet obligations are now $3 trillion

[Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸 @jimstewartson]

The chatbot delusion will be seen as the single greatest act of self-sabotage in industrial history. An entire thriving sector decided to make the same suicidal bet at the same time because of FOMO.

25% of the economy may just… evaporate.

[Nick @NickSenese_]

The US Treasury intervening in an attempt to stabilize the Japanese Yen is the first official admission that the unwinding of the carry trade poses a systemic risk to global markets. @leadlagreport was the first one I saw sounding the alarm about this. Few

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

AI bets paying off so well that we won’t tell you by how much

[Nick @NickSenese_]

ROR lmfao

[tae kim @firstadopter]

Agentic AI isn't really about ROI. It's about ROR -> return of revenue.

If you don't rearchitect your internal systems with AI, you'll be disrupted and lose your revenue to AI-enabled rivals.

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

There is a reason $NVDA’s 5 year credit default swaps are going parabolic. All this overreaching by #nvda to push the circular spending to biblical proportions .

[Allen Ivermectin @FanSince09]

lol my options are stuff that will kill me or fuck Charlize Theron for 7 years?

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

okay so we're into the phase where he's just promising magic

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

So we are at the point in the cycle where $NVDA has to provide financing guarantees for roughly 2/3rds of the cost of the chips it is selling to the data center project…?! Lol, ok.

[Cem Karsan 🥐 @jam_croissant]

The most recent Iran 🇮🇷 TACO 🌮 pause is just that… just another pause…They’ve said as much. The SOH isn’t opening & the war isn’t ending, & everyone now finally sees it. (B/c the risk of losing the exorbitant privilege of the US $ 💵 simply isn’t an option.) that’s causing more financial stress.

What most people don’t realize though is that there’s a new TACO 🌮 in town…

They’re starting to fire bigger & bigger guns 🔫… 1st the ORCL Pentagon deal, (which failed miserably to arrest the slide) & now this.

Bessent is working OT to get this CDS moving back in the right direction…They know they have to try & backstop Private Credit.

That’s the heart ♥️ of the coming crises & they know it.

[Nick @NickSenese_]

Unemployed? Who? Me? No, you’ve got it all wrong. I’m a Nilf $SPY

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: America’s "NILF" population — Not in Labor Force — surges by 832,000 to a record 105.8 million.

[Za @ZaStocks]

The best time to own a growth stock is when it’s expensive and nobody believes in the thesis.

Not when everyone is clamoring about how cheap it is.

[perry karyon, md @perry_karyon]

Burning 2M tokens to find out the gym is crowded at 6pm

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

pretty empty. not a great sign.

[Nick @NickSenese_]

$HYG looking very weak. This is the divergence that is usually the canary in the coal mine $SPY

[Ed Zitron @edzitron]

Absolutely washed

[Dr Jordan B Peterson @jordanbpeterson]

To the Americans:

I've travelled all over the world. I've familiarized myself with many places, and met many people. And I'm a Canadian, although I’m privileged to reside once again in the States.

And here's something I've noticed, and it’s a key element of America's continuing greatness:

You bloody Americans value success, and you believe in its existence.

This is something that doesn't really happen anywhere else in the world. Even in other free democracies—the United Kingdom; Finland, Sweden, and Norway; Australia, New Zealand and Canada; Germany, France, and the Netherlands (great countries all)—a counterproductive cynicism too often reigns.

Success is equated with exploitation.
Ambition is looked upon with contempt.

This happens sometimes in the United States too—particularly among the miserable progressives, who confuse their resentment, ingratitude and unearned skepticism with wisdom.

But in your great country, by and large, striving is admired and success celebrated.

This means that more people strive and succeed in the US than anywhere else. And it's increasingly obvious. You remain stunningly more innovative and productive than any people anywhere else on the planet.

And so I say, as all should who are fortunate enough to live in the western world, let alone America:

Thank God for the United States.

Thank God for the wisdom of its founders.
Thank God for its faith in the free market and in the natural rights of man.
Happy birthday, you damn Yankees and Southerners.

Long may your admirable country dominate the world.

Long may your freedom and hope provide an example to those suffering everywhere at the hands of their malevolent states.

May your two and a half centuries of unparallelled success be just the beginning.

Your country is the light of the world, and the city on the hill.

Thank God for the USA.

Happy 250th.

Dr. Jordan B. Peterson