Nicolas Goetzmann

Recherche Macro. @FinCite Compte personnel

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

Isabel Schnabel "Given the size and the persistence of the current shock, looking through is no longer an option in my view."

[European Central Bank @ecb]

Incoming data increasingly suggest that the energy price shock is feeding into broader inflation developments, Executive Board member @Isabel_Schnabel tells @Reuters. Given the size and persistence of the shock, looking through is no longer an option.

https://t.co/8Li4mA2AXy

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

@ollirehn "Do I need to remind us that the ECB’s two subsequent rate hikes of spring 2011 were reversed in November and December 2011?"

https://t.co/vDGhORMnwq

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

Germany — 7-year stagnation in core private domestic demand (real private domestic final purchases).

Q4’18 → Q4’25: +0.08%.

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

« Chinese imports to the euro zone are up by 27% in volume terms since the start of 2024, with prices down by 8%, Panetta said, adding that this was driving down the price of goods exposed to Chinese competition »

https://t.co/DlEgDjJY9t

[Zoe Schneeweiss @ZSchneeweiss]

France and Germany are carving up the ECB: @LionelRALaurent & @marcusashworth https://t.co/iRrpuyEk9b via @opinion

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

While NGDP is above 8%, nominal PDFP is 6.2%—strong, but not exceptional, i.e. below Q2 2019, right when the Fed pivoted to cuts.

[Greg Ip @greg_ip]

"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT https://t.co/vzNnkKmGpY

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

The Global Trade Effects of the AI Infrastructure Boom

"The U.S. leads globally in terms of the AI infrastructure build-out and planned investments, followed by China, with other economies, notably Europe, lagging"

https://t.co/kM772zxdaO

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

Weak private demand is the core problem—tied to weak productivity (Draghi). Strip out the noise (Ireland’s MNE distortions, NGEU one-offs) and focus on the core euro area (FR+DE): the ECB tightening cycle is hard to miss. Core private domestic demand is the adjustment margin.

[Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @Isabel_Schnabel]

The key shortfall is a sustained weakness in domestic demand. Since 1999 real private consumption in Germany has grown by less than 1% per year. Domestic investment remained subdued as well. This is mirrored in the sharp rise in Germany’s current account surplus. 15/20

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

@fipaddict Si vous regardez les projections BDF, vous verrez que les anticipations du taux 10 ans reste ancrées au dessus de la croissance nominale sur tout l’horizon. Effet boule de neige constant.

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

https://t.co/ZGTt7ydXs1

[fipaddict @fipaddict]

Quelqu'un comprend comme la BCE peut annoncer une charge de la dette à plus de 6 % du PIB (!) pour la France en 2034 ? 🧐
https://t.co/d3sLUqTO7Q

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

https://t.co/kdNYBq7Gko

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

https://t.co/ZGTt7ydXs1

[Grégoire Favet @GregoireFavet]

L'inflation en France continue de s'effondrer... divisée par 2 en 3 mois ! HICP est passé de +0,8% YoY en novembre à +0,4% YoY en janvier (1ère estimation)

[Mark Sobel @sobel_mark]

The day wouldn't be complete without another profound & insightful Kevin Warsh commentary. All kidding aside, Warsh's life is going to be very complicated and not just because of Trump.👇👇👇

https://t.co/uURVdiKpcT

[Macro Musings @Macro_Musings]

New episode! Scott Sumner on Monetary Policy Confusion in Our Current Policy Debates

Scott lays out for @DavidBeckworth why people have been reversing the cause and effect of the eurozone crisis.

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

Can This Man Save the Federal Reserve? https://t.co/jxhNY55p3R via @politico

[ACEMAXX ANALYTICS @acemaxx]

#Germany's attitude gives the impression that competition is no longer with #China, but within the eurozone itself: relative advantage is being built up vis-à-vis European partners, not vis-à-vis Beijing - @NicolasGoetzman op-ed @LesEchos
https://t.co/sBJExIO932

[Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 @C_Barraud]

#FF
@LiveSquawk
@Fredgenta
@neilksethi
@VMRConstancio
@OliverRakau
@NCheron_bourse
@agnostoxxx
@fastrevealnews
@MikaelSarwe
@enlundm
@Newsquawk
@ForexLive
@dlacalle_IA
@vtchakarova
@AnilVohra1962
@GFXFTs
@Sino_Market
@fxmacro
@PiQSuite
@MikeZaccardi
@NicolasGoetzman
@Mayhem4Markets
@CryptoeconRyan

[Guillaume 2 Calignon @gcalignon]

La réaction européenne se fait attendre. Encore une fois, la France est un peu seule...
https://t.co/rfjlcTmqNf

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

https://t.co/ZGTt7ydXs1

[Nicolas Goetzmann @NicolasGoetzman]

Tribune pour Le Monde

L’économie française est soumise à la politique monétaire la plus restrictive du monde occidental