Nils

[Nils @Nilseroo]

@EchoAnalysis Could you take a look at $ECHO ?

[Nils @Nilseroo]

@EchoAnalysis I am very interested!

[Nils @Nilseroo]

@EchoAnalysis Thank you sir 🫡

[Nils @Nilseroo]

@EchoAnalysis Do you still think it is a good buy with the current bearish climate?
Feels like time for a panic ngl

[Nils @Nilseroo]

@EchoAnalysis Could you elaborate on what you mean when you talk about these different waves?

[Nils @Nilseroo]

@EchoAnalysis How small are we talking?

[Nils @Nilseroo]

@EchoAnalysis Is now a good time to get in this stock?

[Echo Analysis @EchoAnalysis]

$TTD Here's the plan 👀

1) Firstly why I bought.

Price has completed a clean 5 wave impulse up and then $TTD moved into an irregular flat formation since, with Wave C potentially finishing here at the 0.887 fib.

RSI has been showing bullish divergence since the start of 2025 and is still oversold across all timeframes. Price showed a solid initial reaction on support hence I started a position here.

Wave 3 target: 1299%.

That's simply the standard 1.618 fib extension from Wave 1 low to Wave 1 high to the Wave 2 low.

Additionally if we apply gap theory there are two huge unfilled gaps circled in the $80s and $110s.

People are questioning what fundamental change will cause that move. To be honest even I don't know. It's very hard to predict. For example when I was bearish on $HIMS at $36 I had no idea that the $NVO lawsuit would cause it to fall to the $15s.

2) How will I manage my position.

Scenario one: price moves to the upside from this level. I want to see 5 clear waves on the smaller timeframes showing impulsive nature and I will buy more in subwave 2.

Scenario two: price falls below the 0.887 fib. Alone this isn't a huge issue however if price then retests the 0.887 fib and rejects off that level that would cause me to sell out of my position.

Any questions please let me know. 👇

[Echo Analysis @EchoAnalysis]

$NAGE Approaching a key level 👀

Price is getting close to testing the 0.887 fib where a long term bottom can form.

Happy starting a position there upon support confirmation.

Wave B target: 373% 🚀

[Nils @Nilseroo]

@PassionAndLuck Why would they want to minimise market impact? They would benefit extremely from a short squeeze, which is much less likely to happen if they buy back in this way, right?

[Chicken Genius @chickengenius]

Assuming you want to long $spcx with leverage without blowing up like Leopold.

1. If you go buy options, the time decay will kill you
2. If you buy 2X 3X spcx etf, the fees will wipe you out
3. If take on margin, it’s the same as playing futures. Time will wipe you out

You look for best efficiency.

Buying $echo gives you:
1. 50% leverage - 50% NAV discount
2. 14% leverage - $5 billion used for buybacks reducing share count ( every share you own now holds more $spcx
3. 10% leverage - Extra torque from remaining business if valued correctly

Conservatively, 69% leverage without decay.
If end 2027, spacex is $200, $echo should be at $270

Trade off is time. I’m long $spcx till forever. There is no better capital allocator than Elon.

NAV gap will close. Maybe 1 year from now. Not sure.
I know it’s gonna be boring to hold, but I’ve been waiting for years for spacex to go public.

There will never be another company like this.

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

Looking at ECHO’s price action over the past few days, I think there’s a possibility that the share buyback has already begun.

Since the August low of $82.48, volume has declined while the lows have continued to move higher, and the stock appears to be consistently supported whenever selling pressure emerges.

Of course, this is purely speculation, but given the $5B buyback authorization through December 31 and the current NAV discount, it would not be surprising at all if Ergen were quietly buying back shares at these levels.
$echo

[Echo Analysis @EchoAnalysis]

$ASAN Has broken out 👀

Exactly as expected price is up 11% this week and closed the week just above the 200DMA.

I want to see this level hold before I buy.

196% gain to the top of the wedge. 🚀

[Chicken Genius @chickengenius]

echostar earnings call:
"Captain Obvious" 😂

also Charles Ergen on tax:
"If you take the high end of that, take $7 billion"

NAV is very clear moving forward from here.

Bullish SpaceX. It's a company I don't want to trade. Not worth the time to trade this. If you do so, in either direction it will blow you out.

That leaves $ECHO around NAV @ $160 per share. 2X from here.

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

To everyone questioning SpaceX / $SPCX’s highly successful IPO and its $2.1T market cap, let me share what I believe is the best arbitrage setup.

Do you know $SATS?

$SATS is expected to receive 261.8M shares of $SPCX, worth roughly $42B based on the 6/12 closing price.

Yet SATS’ current market cap is only about $33B.

Short: $SPCX
Long: $SATS

$SATS will effectively own approximately 2% of SpaceX / SPCX.

According to the SPCX prospectus, in exchange for acquiring spectrum from SATS, SPCX will pay SATS 261.8M shares of SPCX stock, roughly $8.5B in cash, and an additional ~$2.0B in cash to cover interest payments that SATS would otherwise have been responsible for.

In addition, SATS is expected to sell roughly $23B of spectrum to $T.

The transactions with $T and SPCX were approved by the FCC on 5/12. If no petition for reconsideration was filed by 6/11, the approval should likely have become final automatically. As of 6/14, I have not confirmed any petition for reconsideration.

Also, the spectrum transfer structure is SATS → TRUST → SPCX. Since the SATS → TRUST transfer has already been completed, I believe the closing risk is relatively low.

Now let’s calculate $SATS NAV.

My base NAV assumptions:

SPCX ownership: approximately 2%

SATS basic shares outstanding: 298M

Fully diluted shares after convertible bonds: 348M

I use 348M shares in the calculation below.

Cash proceeds from spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX:

From $T: approximately $23B
From $SPCX: approximately $8B in cash
Total: approximately $31B

Assuming the convertible bonds are converted into equity, net cash after debt repayment would be roughly $11B.

Regulatory / escrow / contingent liability haircut: -$2.5B

Net cash after haircut: approximately $8.5B

Remaining operating business value: $10B

Based on roughly $300M of operating income in Q1 2026 × 4 quarters × 8x multiple.

Even after the spectrum sales to $T and $SPCX, SATS will retain remaining spectrum assets. The most notable example is AWS-3 paired spectrum, which SATS previously planned to sell to $VZ for approximately $9.8B.

If we conservatively value the remaining spectrum at $10B, that adds approximately $28.7 per share of NAV based on 348M shares.

Formula:

SATS NAV
= {SPCX market cap × 2% + net cash after haircut + remaining operating business value + remaining spectrum value} / 348M shares

= {SPCX market cap × 2% + $8.5B + $10B + $10B} / 348M shares

SATS NAV by SPCX market cap:

• SPCX $2.0T → SATS approximately $197
• SPCX $2.25T → SATS approximately $211
• SPCX $2.5T → SATS approximately $226
• SPCX $2.75T → SATS approximately $240
• SPCX $3.0T → SATS approximately $254

This is my personal analysis, not financial advice.

[Nils @Nilseroo]

@eToro But you have a pretty wide spread, no?

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

@wworkaccount I think if Ergen can buy shares cheaper, he’ll try to do so for as long as possible. But I’m struggling to see what could push the stock down any further from here. Do you have anything in mind?

Of course, that’s a different story if Ergen is extremely bearish on SpaceX.

[HN @PassionAndLuck]

$ECHO

The understated conference call made me even more bullish.

There’s a chance we’ll see an announcement on the sale of the paired AWS-3 spectrum before the Q3 earnings release in early November. In the meantime, any share repurchases are likely to provide support for the stock price.