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Nirav Desai - The Machine
@NiravSD
Bitcoin since 2017: I built a machine that trades my own money. It drives, I narrate — every trade graded in public, misses included · ex-hedge fund · HBS.
On-chain
Joined March 2012
939 Following
323 Followers
2.5K Posts
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Everyone's scared. Nobody knows the bottom.
Here's the honest version 👇
Bitcoin's ~48% off its high, and every cycle gives most of the top back first. One line decides it: $58K — it's held 3 times.
📈 Holds → back toward $95K.
📉 Breaks → $38K next.
Not a prediction. Just the map. This isn't the end — maybe it's just the start.
Every call graded in public, misses included. $BTC #BitcoinRecovery #BitcoinRecovery $BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETH #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #CryptoTrading
#BitcoinNews #CryptoNews #Trading #Altcoins #BTCUSD
@DrProfitCrypto My daily reports I have been constantly saying it’s heading up!
Aug 20th: Morning Report
1) For nine days straight, 65.5k was the roof on bitcoin's two-week range.
Today it broke. We ran to 72.3k and we're holding just under it.
First time that roof has moved since Aug 10.
2) The why isn't a mystery. Treasury buybacks, new SEC rules and a White House crypto summit all landed in the same window — and a big stack of short bets got forced out on the way up.
3) Yesterday the US Treasury said it'll at least double its "buybacks" of long-dated government bonds — raising the cap per operation from $2B to $4B, starting Sept 9.
Plain version: the government stepped in to buy its own long-term IOUs so borrowing costs stop climbing. That's a liquidity-friendly move.
4) What it means for BTC: A softer dollar + more liquidity sloshing around is historically a tailwind for scarce assets. Bitcoin is the cleanest expression of that trade.
5) If it holds 70k today, we are building foundation for a new high!
Currently the market reaction is mixed: Pulled both ways — 74,400 above ($3.0B, 2.68%) vs 67,400 below ($2.0B, 6.98%). Price 72,461 — heading there (+1.44%/2h).
At the moment: Borrowed money is buying (+$72.2M) · real cash is selling (−$21.1M) · positioning barely moved ($40M over 4h).
Waiting for 72,500 to break with cash behind it. I would not personally short this market.
Aug 19 — Evening Report
I told you to watch the White House meeting.
It happened. Bitcoin went from $64,500 to $69,500 in four hours.
This morning I gave you one number: $67,500. Nothing had traded above it in 77 days. Price blew straight through it.
That's three calls in a row.
We're at $69,380. Up 7.8% on the day.
Who bought? ETFs, big — their biggest day in weeks. And the CME futures premium doubled, 22 to 39. That's the slow money finally paying up. First time all move.
Now the part nobody else will tell you: leverage came in too. That pile got bigger today. Real buyers and fast money, together. The fast money is why the next few days get bumpy.
And I won't pretend three wins is a track record. All three were the same trade in the same uptrend. Ask me again when it goes sideways.
Fun Fact: Do you think today was the biggest buying day? No. it was 29,054 BTC, which ranks 7th in the 91 days I can see. June 5 was 55,027 BTC— nearly double. It is likely the biggest ETF day in weeks along with heavy leverage buying and one of the big real money buying.
It is in line with what the machine showed a month ago!
https://t.co/8JPHSfU7eU
Everyone's scared. Nobody knows the bottom.
Here's the honest version 👇
Bitcoin's ~48% off its high, and every cycle gives most of the top back first. One line decides it: $58K — it's held 3 times.
📈 Holds → back toward $95K.
📉 Breaks → $38K next.
Not a prediction. Just the map. This isn't the end — maybe it's just the start.
Every call graded in public, misses included. $BTC #BitcoinRecovery #BitcoinRecovery $BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETH #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #CryptoTrading
#BitcoinNews #CryptoNews #Trading #Altcoins #BTCUSD
Everyone's scared. Nobody knows the bottom.
Here's the honest version 👇
Bitcoin's ~48% off its high, and every cycle gives most of the top back first. One line decides it: $58K — it's held 3 times.
📈 Holds → back toward $95K.
📉 Breaks → $38K next.
Not a prediction. Just the map. This isn't the end — maybe it's just the start.
Every call graded in public, misses included. $BTC #BitcoinRecovery #BitcoinRecovery $BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETH #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #CryptoTrading
#BitcoinNews #CryptoNews #Trading #Altcoins #BTCUSD
About one month back! Predicted 65k to 70k run..
Everyone's scared. Nobody knows the bottom.
Here's the honest version 👇
Bitcoin's ~48% off its high, and every cycle gives most of the top back first. One line decides it: $58K — it's held 3 times.
📈 Holds → back toward $95K.
📉 Breaks → $38K next.
Not a prediction. Just the map. This isn't the end — maybe it's just the start.
Every call graded in public, misses included. $BTC #BitcoinRecovery #BitcoinRecovery $BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETH #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Cryptocurrency #CryptoTrading
#BitcoinNews #CryptoNews #Trading #Altcoins #BTCUSD
Aug 18th: Evening Report
Today the price almost touched 65k and then reversed. Shorts squeeze is over. The price is sitting right now at 64,400.
Machine closed the long position opened at 63,400 last friday at 64,709 today. Good run!
Right now, borrowed money is selling (−$31.7M) · real cash is selling (−$13.4M) · shorts are LEAVING (−$160M over 4h). The 65,200 lid is THINNING — shorts closing.
There is big cluster at 63,800. That is when machine is looking to buy long again.
Aug 18th: Morning Report
Machine's long of 63,400 from last Friday is looking very good with a target close around 65,200.
Yesterday I said $64,500 was the line. It broke in under four hours and ran to $65,059. Now $64,756. What changed overnight is who's buying: the ETFs took in $298M, their biggest day in weeks, while borrowed-money bets actually shrank by $773M. That's real buyers, not leverage. And there was a large liquidity fuel yesterday of 1/2 billion at 65,200. So both fresh cash and liquidity pool made the push to 65k. Above yesterday's high there's nothing until $65,500, which hasn't traded in 22 days. The catch: most of tomorrow's options bets sit below here, not above. So there is a good chance of reversing from around 65k.
Today's daily range is 64,000 to 65,470.
Today is a coiled, low-conviction green day — BTC is quietly back over $64k (~$64.7k) after last week's flush to ~$62.8k, but the real catalyst is tomorrow, Aug 19: the Fed publishes the minutes from its July 28–29 meeting (where it held rates at 3.50–3.75% but three members voted to hike), and there's a White House crypto meeting with Coinbase and Ripple.
The honest "reacted vs expected" angle is that BTC reclaimed $64k even though two of its biggest bids are absent — ETF buyers pulled ~$385M last week and Strategy has gone 7 weeks without a purchase (raised $334M, bought $0 BTC) — which means the lift is a softer dollar, not fresh demand. Real bounce, thin fuel.
The map. Confirm $65,500 — untraded 22 days, and the engine's daily lid. Invalidate $63,940, which takes out the 24h low and the highest-confidence daily floor together. Separation is $1,560, wider than any 4h range in this stretch. Thin zone $65,059–$65,500
Aug 17th: Evening Report
Price pushing 64,500. There is some real buying happening right now across both Perps and Spot.
There is major liquidity grab of $452M at 65,200.
Target 65,200. Price 64,534 — heading there (+0.37%/2h).
Borrowed money is buying (+$40.3M) · real cash is buying (+$45.5M) · no one is being forced out.
64,500 broke — needs cash to hold it
Aug 17th: Morning Report
BTC broke a 4-day range and is holding $64,100.
Money is cautiously flowing in. New dollars are not pouring in yet.
It seems like market is going to range between 63,600 and 64,500 today.
Machine's 63,400 long from last week is still open. Am going to wait to see if it breaks 64,500 today.
If it does then it's a clean ride to 65,500. Lose 63,600 and we are ranging again between 63 and 64k.
Not advice. $BTC
Aug 13th: Sunset Report
As we analyzed this morning the market makers are not letting the price fall! Tomorrow option expiry will decide direction!
Aug 13th: Sunrise Report
Bitcoin went quiet. Really quiet — a 1.1% day, down from 2%.
Yesterday traders paid for a 20% move while bitcoin made 27% ones. It was on sale. Today they're paying for 24% while it makes 15%.
There is a high risk to entry. The price barely moved. The fear did.
One thing machine notified: over the last twenty minutes I measured,sellers outweighed buyers almost nine to one in real cash — and price went up anyway. Somebody is absorbing that. Someone is not letting price fall.
So story for today remains same. As I mentioned yesterday huge options expiry pinned at 65,500 tomorrow. If price marches towards 64k for rest of the day we will see a push towards 65k,
but the market this morning has risk on,$63,000 hasn't traded in ten days. Lose it and the quiet ended in the wrong direction.
$65,500 hasn't traded in seventeen. Get there and the quiet was just loading.
Not financial advice.
Probably true over a decade. Also the kind of statement that survives any outcome, which makes it useless this week.
The checkable version: bitcoin is flat, quiet, and nobody's paying up for a move. Conviction is easy. Timing is the expensive part. Follow for more https://t.co/WFO8MRM6lW
Every morning, your feed fills with Bitcoin predictions. Almost none are ever graded.
I spent two decades trading — and eight years, thousands of iterations, building a machine that watches the market so you don't have to. Every trade. Every exchange. Around the clock.
Each morning it draws the day's map: the walls that matter, and what would prove it wrong. Each evening it takes a public grade. ✓ or ✗. Misses stay up.
Not advice. Follow for tomorrow's map. @NiravSD
@CryptoHayes
@woonomic
@100trillionUSD
@glassnode
@cryptoquant_com
@santimentfeed
@coinmetrics
@_Checkmatey_
@laevitas1
@GreeksLive
@coinglass_com
@velodataapp
@deribit
The "descriptive, not predictive" line is doing more work than the beta, and I wish more people wrote it.
One thing that would stress it: R² that high usually falls apart in the exact week you need it — a gap or a funding shock. Worth splitting by regime. Follow for more https://t.co/WFO8MRM6lW
Every morning, your feed fills with Bitcoin predictions. Almost none are ever graded.
I spent two decades trading — and eight years, thousands of iterations, building a machine that watches the market so you don't have to. Every trade. Every exchange. Around the clock.
Each morning it draws the day's map: the walls that matter, and what would prove it wrong. Each evening it takes a public grade. ✓ or ✗. Misses stay up.
Not advice. Follow for tomorrow's map. @NiravSD
@CryptoHayes
@woonomic
@100trillionUSD
@glassnode
@cryptoquant_com
@santimentfeed
@coinmetrics
@_Checkmatey_
@laevitas1
@GreeksLive
@coinglass_com
@velodataapp
@deribit
The "descriptive, not predictive" line is doing more work than the beta, and I wish more people wrote it.
One thing that would stress it: R² that high usually falls apart in the exact week you need it — a gap or a funding shock. Worth splitting by regime. Follow for more https://t.co/WFO8MRM6lW
Every morning, your feed fills with Bitcoin predictions. Almost none are ever graded.
I spent two decades trading — and eight years, thousands of iterations, building a machine that watches the market so you don't have to. Every trade. Every exchange. Around the clock.
Each morning it draws the day's map: the walls that matter, and what would prove it wrong. Each evening it takes a public grade. ✓ or ✗. Misses stay up.
Not advice. Follow for tomorrow's map. @NiravSD
@CryptoHayes
@woonomic
@100trillionUSD
@glassnode
@cryptoquant_com
@santimentfeed
@coinmetrics
@_Checkmatey_
@laevitas1
@GreeksLive
@coinglass_com
@velodataapp
@deribit
The honest question for any indicator like this: how many independent signals is it actually built on? Cycle troughs give you maybe four or five, and four wins reads like a law.
Not a knock — I'd just want the miss column published next to it. Follow for more https://t.co/WFO8MRM6lW
Every morning, your feed fills with Bitcoin predictions. Almost none are ever graded.
I spent two decades trading — and eight years, thousands of iterations, building a machine that watches the market so you don't have to. Every trade. Every exchange. Around the clock.
Each morning it draws the day's map: the walls that matter, and what would prove it wrong. Each evening it takes a public grade. ✓ or ✗. Misses stay up.
Not advice. Follow for tomorrow's map. @NiravSD
@CryptoHayes
@woonomic
@100trillionUSD
@glassnode
@cryptoquant_com
@santimentfeed
@coinmetrics
@_Checkmatey_
@laevitas1
@GreeksLive
@coinglass_com
@velodataapp
@deribit
@CryptoWendyO The bias part is why I write two prices down before the market tests them and post the result either way.
It doesn't make me right more often. It just makes it impossible to quietly rewrite what I thought yesterday.
Testable, which I like. So far bitcoin isn't confirming it: flat on the day, inside the same 2% box it's held since Monday, and options are pricing less movement than price is actually making.
If oil is the trigger, nothing has transmitted yet. Follow for more https://t.co/WFO8MRM6lW
Every morning, your feed fills with Bitcoin predictions. Almost none are ever graded.
I spent two decades trading — and eight years, thousands of iterations, building a machine that watches the market so you don't have to. Every trade. Every exchange. Around the clock.
Each morning it draws the day's map: the walls that matter, and what would prove it wrong. Each evening it takes a public grade. ✓ or ✗. Misses stay up.
Not advice. Follow for tomorrow's map. @NiravSD
@CryptoHayes
@woonomic
@100trillionUSD
@glassnode
@cryptoquant_com
@santimentfeed
@coinmetrics
@_Checkmatey_
@laevitas1
@GreeksLive
@coinglass_com
@velodataapp
@deribit
@PolyBackTest Maybe. Nobody can grade that, which is the problem with it.
Here's one you can grade by Friday: $63,000 hasn't traded in nine days, $65,500 hasn't in sixteen. Whichever goes first tells you something. Follow for more https://t.co/aXqUuzdVgH
Every morning, your feed fills with Bitcoin predictions. Almost none are ever graded.
I spent two decades trading — and eight years, thousands of iterations, building a machine that watches the market so you don't have to. Every trade. Every exchange. Around the clock.
Each morning it draws the day's map: the walls that matter, and what would prove it wrong. Each evening it takes a public grade. ✓ or ✗. Misses stay up.
Not advice. Follow for tomorrow's map. @NiravSD
@CryptoHayes
@woonomic
@100trillionUSD
@glassnode
@cryptoquant_com
@santimentfeed
@coinmetrics
@_Checkmatey_
@laevitas1
@GreeksLive
@coinglass_com
@velodataapp
@deribit
@coinbureau It's a good line, and it's been true for a decade. It's also unfalsifiable — there's no print that makes it wrong.
July's deficit was $432B and bitcoin is flat and quiet. The thesis keeps winning the argument and losing the week. Follow for more https://t.co/aXqUuzdVgH
Every morning, your feed fills with Bitcoin predictions. Almost none are ever graded.
I spent two decades trading — and eight years, thousands of iterations, building a machine that watches the market so you don't have to. Every trade. Every exchange. Around the clock.
Each morning it draws the day's map: the walls that matter, and what would prove it wrong. Each evening it takes a public grade. ✓ or ✗. Misses stay up.
Not advice. Follow for tomorrow's map. @NiravSD
@CryptoHayes
@woonomic
@100trillionUSD
@glassnode
@cryptoquant_com
@santimentfeed
@coinmetrics
@_Checkmatey_
@laevitas1
@GreeksLive
@coinglass_com
@velodataapp
@deribit
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