I lived the 2020-2022 EV bubble first hand and I’m seeing a ton of similarities with the current AI bubble, albeit this one is much larger
It began with US companies running hard and an IPO frenzy of small/midsize scalers ($CRWV, $CBRS, Databricks)
Think 2020 Tesla = 2025 Nvidia
Battery Companies = HBM
Charging Companies = Energy Suppliers
Lithium and Cobalt = Copper and Silver
Mid stage of the bubble we saw Chinese companies start to IPO and run hard as the US companies had been parabolic for a year
Micron and soon to IPO Yangtze Memory
The most anticipated IPO in 2020 was Rivian and marked the absolute pico top
This time we’re getting SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI
This bubble is far more meaningful and larger than EVs but there are a striking amount of similarities in the timeline and trickledown of the supply chains
Everyone knew we were in a bubble and it’s no different this time
Since I’m apparently sharing all the alpha recently, here’s a monster:
Data says crypto summer — Feb 2018 was the only real false signal for near-to-mid-term outperformance
13w out from April 27th = July 27th
🫡
$VVV emissions dropped by 17% today. Emissions are dropping by another 20% on June 1st. And another 25% on top of that on July 1st.
Venice API token usage has grown by more than 10x since January. The majority of the VVV circulating supply is staked. And the revenue Venice is generating is completely uncorrelated with crypto prices.
No better setup in crypto.
"How will Amp know that it did the right thing?"
I now ask myself this question many times a day, every time I write a prompt. "Is there a way it can verify this?"
Because if there is... Sky's the limit, baby, it'll rip through anything.
The famous 4Chan poster who has made many famous BTC predictions has just posted again!
This time calling for new ATHs and a meme coin super cycle 🤯
Will he be right again?
We just open sourced the code-simplifier agent we use on the Claude Code team.
Try it: claude plugin install code-simplifier
Or from within a session:
/plugin marketplace update claude-plugins-official
/plugin install code-simplifier
Ask Claude to use the code simplifier agent at the end of a long coding session, or to clean up complex PRs. Let us know what you think!
File over app
File over app is a philosophy: if you want to create digital artifacts that last, they must be files you can control, in formats that are easy to retrieve and read. Use tools that give you this freedom.
File over app is an appeal to tool makers: accept that all software is ephemeral, and give people ownership over their data.
In the fullness of time, the files you create are more important than the tools you use to create them. Apps are ephemeral, but your files have a chance to last.
The pyramids of Egypt contain hieroglyphs that were chiseled in stone thousands of years ago. The ideas hieroglyphs convey are more important than the type of chisel that was used to carve them.
The world is filled with ideas from generations past, transmitted through many mediums, from clay tablets to manuscripts, paintings, sculptures, and tapestries. These artifacts are objects that you can touch, hold, own, store, preserve, and look at. To read something written on paper all you need is eyeballs.
Today, we are creating innumerable digital artifacts, but most of these artifacts are out of our control. They are stored on servers, in databases, gated behind an internet connection, and login to a cloud service. Even the files on your hard drive use proprietary formats that make them incompatible with older systems.
Paraphrasing something I wrote recently:
> If you want your writing to still be readable on a computer from the 2060s or 2160s, it’s important that your notes can be read on a computer from the 1960s.
You should want the files you create to be durable, not only for posterity, but also for your future self. You never know when you might want to go back to something you created years or decades ago. Don’t lock your data into a format you can’t retrieve.
These days I write using an app I help make called Obsidian (@obsdmd), but it’s a delusion to think it will last forever. The app will eventually become obsolete. It’s the plain text files I create that are designed to last. Who knows if anyone will want to read them besides me, but future me is enough of an audience to make it worthwhile.
we are approaching what is likely to be the most perilous point in the AI-birthing process:
the point at which we have AI which can automate the work of many entry-level knowledge workers, but is not nearly sufficient to produce hyper-abundance
for hyper-abundance, we need mass-scale robotics and possibly AGI and resultant technologies. but we are not there, and we may not be there for anything from 10-30+ years
this differs in character from the second industrial revolution, which really began with the railroads. the railroads were a network for people, but especially for goods. it catalyzed massive economic development via regional specialization. this was followed by the harnessing of electricity. both gave rise to a new kind of urban America
though many jobs disappeared in that era, so many more were created. there was so much demand for labor that children were recruited to work in the factories, and everyone was working impossibly long shifts under squalid conditions
eventually, the people stepped up as they saw the comparatively hyper-abundant (and very concentrated) wealth being generated, and demanded a better lifestyle. the result was a series of worker reforms which have carried through pretty much to our modern era and the birth of the American middle class
but we don't have that hyper-abundancy which can even be redistributed yet, and we are likely staring down the barrel of greater job loss and growing wealth inequality in the near-term
i have no idea how to resolve these issues, but it is obvious that we are not really trying as a society, though i suspect the issue will be forced at some point in ways which people don't like. sloppy wealth taxes are but the first manifestation. it will get much worse if the people with means don't try to work proactively to address the current state of affairs
for now, they shall suffice by making you fear people who are different from you to distract you as they concentrate their power and wealth even more. it is your prerogative to indulge them and your base instincts if you wish, but don't be deluded from the game which is currently being played
Today we’re announcing a developer release of the Jua Kali Miner - an open source project that allows farmers and small industries to make use of their excess solar energy to mine Bitcoin.
With a live demo at #abc25
haven't posted this in a while - it's a sneaky local top indicator.
vechain.
if this thing spikes, you're in danger.
risk goes up as this increasingly gets to a meaningful reclaim of its prev ATH. perfectly captured march 2024 top, and dec 2024 alt highs.
right now: cold.
BREAKING: MIT just completed the first brain scan study of ChatGPT users & the results are terrifying.
Turns out, AI isn't making us more productive. It's making us cognitively bankrupt.
Here's what 4 months of data revealed:
(hint: we've been measuring productivity all wrong)
My brothers/sisters in Christ who are in $BMNR, watch out for the PIPE investment lock up period and when it ends. Early insiders got in at $4.5. They're sitting on 10x gains, expect some to lock in profits and sell.
Oct 2025 is your D-Day
How to position yourself for the upcoming DeFi summer 2.0?
We are excited to share our latest report, “Pendle: House of All Yields,” exploring what makes @pendle_fi special in the crowded crypto landscape, its growth potential, and our projections for its native token, $PENDLE.
This paper is inspired by and based on research outlines and documents from the Pendle team, with additional research by SKYGG to provide the Korean community with a more detailed understanding of how Pendle is strategically positioned at the intersection of various emerging crypto narratives.
Special thanks to @tn_pendle and @Dill_Farmer for the feedback and support in publishing this paper.
Read the full research paper here:
KR: https://t.co/f9FcShrUtn
EN: https://t.co/eh8SHQOFUF