Noel Watson

Helping over 50s plan for a successful retirement | Author

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

My book has been shortlisted for an award. I'd very much appreciate you voting for it so I can tell the family that it was time well spent and a good reason to start the second (family, if you are reading this I'm joking 😜)
https://t.co/m3MEqnPkN7

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@TheSecretAcct Didn't it fall around 40% during COVID?

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@fundhunter_co @JohnRalfe1 @FT @PaulineSkypala @AdairTurnerUK I never understood this argument, given that option pricing does not rely on the underlying expected return.

https://t.co/6hUJpREJWy

"instead replacing the security's expected return with the risk-neutral rate"

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@dan_dfb @DanOakesBP https://t.co/QkbAlOmsHJ

This made a big difference.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@autocar 1-3 are all great drives 👍

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@theRFM1 @dontdelay We buy the software on a standalone basis.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@theRFM1 @dontdelay Don't think so

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@MBajc23 @AlanJLSmith Pretty sure the equity components are broadly as in the link below (the equity allocations would be scaled down as bonds are introduced).

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@realkpr16 @theRFM1 @AlanJLSmith @cyclist_jim increasing the risk (volatility) means a greater possibility we run out of money (outcome)"

Not necessarily.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@MBajc23 @AlanJLSmith It's a diversified portfolio.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@mholdenrid416 @AlanJLSmith Really depends on the granular asset allocation (geography, factors etc) and timescales. No black and white answers.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@Hoarsewhisper99 @AlanJLSmith @ClaireWalshT This is why diversification is important.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@Wealth_Mgmt_Guy @AlanJLSmith I believe you are U.S. based. Our rapidly depreciating tinpot currency rescued our equity holdings (we don't FX hedge equity). Value also did well as you say (our fund was slightly up on the year IIRC). Bond outcomes were very much dependent on duration.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@Wealth_Mgmt_Guy @AlanJLSmith 2022 was noise for someone in a globally diversified portfolio.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@notoriouspjg @AlanJLSmith "And 80% can give worse outcome than 60%"

Agreed that it "could". The point was more that we have the historical data to show that 100% has had some inferior outcomes vs 80%. We don't typically see this (over the typical 30 year retirement) for 60 vs 80.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@notoriouspjg @AlanJLSmith Because 100% equity can give a worst, worst-case outcome vs something like 80%equity for those in drawdown.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@7Saturdaysaweek @AlanJLSmith I think it was 5% - Eric Nelson was looking at this a few months back.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@Wealth_Mgmt_Guy @AlanJLSmith "is having the client freak out when they drop 10% and pull the ripcord on the plan"

I'd suggest it's not noise such as this, more the steeper, more prolonged drawdowns which we've not had for ~15 years that are going to make some clients nervous.

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@pdragoumis @DanOakesBP I kept using bps when practicing first meetings after leaving the city 🤦‍♂️

[Noel Watson @Noel__Watson]

@Ddimyngorrach @paullewismoney Pretty sure it's primarily factor-related

https://t.co/7yuqhvBZJ8

https://t.co/lKApZXC3w0