Joseph Rodgers

Deputy Director & Fellow at @CSISponi. Posts about nukes - deterrence, nonproliferation, & disarmament

[Nicole Grajewski @NicoleGrajewski]

With renewed US strikes against Iran looking increasingly possible, attention has again turned to Pickaxe Mountain, the deeply buried complex near Natanz. What would another strike actually accomplish?

[CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues @csisponi]

REMINDER: Applications are still open for the 2027 Nuclear Scholars Initiative!

The Nuclear Scholars Initiative aims to provide top graduate students and young professionals from around the country with a unique venue to interact and dialogue with senior experts on nuclear weapons issues. Those accepted into the program are hosted once per month over the course of six months at CSIS in Washington, DC where they participate in two-day workshops.

Applications are due Monday, November 2 at 11:59 PM ET. Please view all application requirements here: https://t.co/diEUVZWF2q

[CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues @csisponi]

New satellite imagery reveals the most construction activity at Iran's Pickaxe Mountain in the nuclear site's six-year history. CSIS experts Joseph Rodgers and Doug Comstock explain what the images show and why even the U.S.'s largest bunker-buster may not be enough to destroy it.

Watch the video here: https://t.co/9Mq9djF2ew

[Heather Williams @heatherwilly]

My colleague Jane Nakano and I weigh-up the opportunities and challenges of the Saudi 123 agreement: on the one hand, it's an opportunity to compete with China for regional influence. On the other hand, depending on the details, it could come with 3 risks to the nuclear regime. @csisponi @CSISDefense @CSISEnergy

[Heather Williams @heatherwilly]

In recent months, there's been some really great research on Iran's nuclear sites. Hat tip to OSINT experts @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1, @StrickerNonpro, @NicoleGrajewski, @dex_eve, and @sam_lair, and strong analysis from next-gen experts including @baileyschiff.

There's been some discussion about overlap in recent Pickaxe Mountain analysis. Happy to speak to what our work contributed to a growing body of research by several organizations and media outlets, including @TheGoodISIS, @CNN, and @JamesMartinCNS:

-We used 6 years of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to identify more activity at Pickaxe Mountain this year than ever before, not just optical imagery to show a change in activity.
-We offered an original policy analysis comparing the difficulty of striking Fordow versus Pickaxe Mountain, including with GBU-57s: Pickaxe is much harder to hit because it is buried deeper in a granite mountain.
-We found evidence of external reinforcement of the portal tunnel entrances at Pickaxe Mountain in August of 2026.

My hope is that this contributes to the ongoing community-wide effort to address the challenges of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran's nuclear activity has been one of the biggest challenges to the nuclear regime for decades, and tracking it while offering concrete policy solutions will take a diverse field of experts working on the problem. As ever, I’m proud of PONI’s work and look forward to further discussions on Iran’s nuclear program across our multi-generational and ambitious network.

[Andrea Stricker @StrickerNonpro]

“Advances at Pickaxe Mountain undermine Mr. Trump’s message that the war must continue to ensure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon. What are we doing about the regime’s most dangerous facility?”

Thanks to @WSJ Editorial Board for including my thoughts on one option—blocking access: https://t.co/UO7vWgsRiT

[CSIS @CSIS]

NEW satellite imagery shows Pickaxe Mountain experiencing more construction activity in 2026 than at any point in its history. Analysis can neither confirm nor deny reports that Iran moved centrifuges into the site, but the nature of activity suggests the facility is not yet capable of enriching uranium.

Learn more: https://t.co/kd31OHFaQS

[Joseph Rodgers @NonproJoe]

Our findings on the underground expansion and its implications for U.S. strike capabilities were featured today by @CNN

https://t.co/FT6HmKJdGm

[Joseph Rodgers @NonproJoe]

In our latest report, @CSISPONI analyzed 6 years of satellite radar and optical imagery of Iran’s deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain facility. We found that 2026 has the most construction activity in the site's history.

Read the analysis: https://t.co/221YN9Nf7E

[Joseph Rodgers @NonproJoe]

The imagery shows that Iran is entering the final phases of construction at the Pickaxe nuclear facility, shifting from excavation to internal site buildout. The granite mountain is likely beyond the reach of even the largest U.S. conventional bunker-buster munitions.

[Zachary Cohen @ZcohenCNN]

New satellite imagery analysis by @CSIS, shared exclusively with CNN ahead of its publication, indicates there has been “a clear surge in construction activity” at Iran's Pickaxe Mountain site this year.

The underground facility is “likely” designed to be a safe haven for Iran’s nuclear program, per CSIS analysts.

“We may hit Pickaxe very soon,” Trump told reporters last week, adding that “we know everybody that’s moving” at the site.

Story w/ @davis_winkie & @ThomasBordeaux7
https://t.co/LD7L1wMZbV

[CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues @csisponi]

How China uses the Non-Aligned Movement to avoid nuclear accountability. New analysis by PONI Research Associate @diyaashtakala for @BulletinAtomic

Read the full analysis here: https://t.co/kaAXe1DrtJ

[CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues @csisponi]

As the U.S. and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire agreement the options for ending this war are timelier than ever. Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) experts @heatherwilly and @NonproJoe explore the difficult choices facing the U.S. in addressing Iran’s nuclear program.

Read the full analysis here:
https://t.co/32eMzU1nXy

[Joseph Rodgers @NonproJoe]

As a two-week ceasefire takes hold and negotiations resume over Iran’s enrichment and uranium stockpile, the U.S. faces a critical window for diplomacy. @heatherwilly and I explore a range of options to resolve the nuclear challenge here: https://t.co/B3vxOl3fA0

[Joseph Rodgers @NonproJoe]

@KingstonAReif Thanks, you are correct - it is not "per year".

[Joseph Rodgers @NonproJoe]

1/ The Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration just released its FY27 budget request. This is the funding roadmap for U.S. nuclear warhead modernization and the industrial base required to sustain the stockpile.

Key takeaways thread:

[Joseph Rodgers @NonproJoe]

5/ For the full breakdown of the Weapons Activities request, read the Volume 1 FY27 Congressional Justification here: https://t.co/gZmZW0v9FI

[Joseph Rodgers @NonproJoe]

4/ On the facilities side, the “production modernization” funding is increasing by 87%. This is due to plutonium pit production. NNSA is aiming to hit an ambitious new target: producing 100 pits per year by 2028 to refresh the aging core of the stockpile.