The Nosh

Hard Working. Business Owner. Employer. Father. Critical Thinker (sometimes). Centre Right (or what that used to be) and unashamedly Pro-Australian

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

I think the next 2 years leading up to the next federal election will be tumultuous. Here are my predictions:

Grievance and push back against Labor will continue to grow and One Nation’s support base will continue to increase, irrespective of what is published in the polls (beware the typical Australian “quiet voter”).

In the meantime, Labor will continue to stick to their plan of ramming through legislation using their numbers in the lower house and via deals in the senate.

They will arrogantly do this for the next 12 months, then in the immediate lead up to the election they will revert to smear campaigns against any One Nation candidate that have appeared in the meantime.

Unfortunately Labor will be somewhat successful in some of those smear campaigns because those One Nation candidates will essentially be normal people with actual lived experiences in the real world, and not just “career politicians” like current Labor and Liberal candidates.

This means that some of those One Nation candidate’s, (like all normal people) will have made various mistakes in the past and, believe me, Labor will focus on those mistakes, drag up as much dirt as possible, and the mud will fly with glee from their Labor’s tricks department.

Simultaneously, Labor will also ramp up support from their imported voter base by targeted policies and freebies, while painting One Nation as bigoted racists, (which is now becoming Labor’s default attack strategy).

At that time, Labor will counting on enough time having passed for people to have forgotten about their recent socially divisive and fiscally damaging policies, and will be relying on votes from the increased government employee sector and those now continuing to benefit from the welfare state.
Labor will be continually crunching the numbers and they will be feeling confident.

Given this, I don’t see why Albanese would step down as leader in the interim, as that could be disruptive, but I do see the possibility that he might do so AFTER the next general election if Labor do get over the line. He might site “personal reasons” etc as a means to do so.

If that is the case, then I’m thinking that the Labor’s future election campaign will include an increased presence from the person most likely to take over the Labor leadership and then that newly groomed person will then be elected leader by the Labor caucus.
(The Australian population will of course have no say in the matter).

I must also say that I am fervently hoping that Labor are instead removed entirely from government or, at the very least, that their arrogant behaviour and destructive stranglehold on our country is significantly curtailed by an increase in One Nation’s subsequent representation either in their own right or via a preference arrangement with other parties.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

Yes. Saw that in the Northern NSW during Covid. Huge influx of cashed up buyers from down south who bought up everything they could for over inflated prices and sent prices rocketing. Kicked out the renters and waited until Covid abated before they converted those houses into Air B n B’s before many of them headed back south.
Those properties never went back on the market or into the rental pool and now there is a huge shortage of rentals in the area.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

Perhaps.
But then how does one explain Bowen famously saying that it was his intention to implement as much of Net Zero legislative and structural measures as fast as he could so no future incoming government would functionally be able to reverse it?

I believe that his core objective for energy transition was quoted in The Guardian as (quote) “that by the time I eventually finish here our journey to being a renewable energy superpower is so locked in you can’t undo it” (end quote).

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

@News24Aust And that “substantial and intensifying pressure” is the Labor Government’s blind obsession with Net Zero.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

Oh I don’t know Anthony.
Perhaps he was a little excited in front of the crowd.
Or maybe he went a little off script.
After all he’s not a polished career politician with a shit load of predetermined meaningless talking points.
However, he is clearly passionate about Victoria and about accountability from those who have destroyed it.
But if you think anyone is advocating going outside judicial system that underpins this country then it’s YOU who are “indicating” or in plain speak “putting words in his mouth” (also known as “verballing”).

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

@BobBurn97207272 That is IF they can get an overdraft in the first place.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

Property Prices in Inner City Brisbane have increased by at least 1,2000% in 35 years
(No, not a typo - over one thousand two hundred percent).

I have personally been interested in this particular topic for years from a non partisan perspective.
Having said that, if one wants to look at why housing prices have risen so much since 1980, you also need to look at the changes in economic conditions over that time from a policy perspective and who implemented or presided over those changes.
I’ve always been interested in why do governments (irrespective of their political persuasion) do the things that they do, and also why they refuse to do certain other things.
The fact is that inner city housing prices in Brisbane have increased between 1,200% to 1,600% since the late 1980’s to now (depending on which suburbs you look at)
Let that sink in for a moment.
Why did this massive increase in housing prices occur?
Of course there are a number of reasons, and many of them acted in concert (and still do), but the 2 most significant reasons were:
1. Financial deregulation (including the floating of the Australian currency) and the expansion of credit under the Hawke/Keating Labor government (1983 to 1996). They did this for various reasons of course (not discussed here), but what they didn’t expect was a massive increase in the availability of mortgage credit (a phenomenon that the now deregulated banking industry cottoned onto quickly and took full advantage of by focusing on residential mortgages).
In effect credit was made available.

2. Falling Interest rates under:
Labor - (Hawke, Keating, Rudd, Gillard and Albanese)
and ALSO
under
Coalition - (Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison).
Note that getting interest rates down was largely a monetary policy phenomenon rather than a party-political one.
As you all know, interest rates in the early 1980’s were very high (up to 18%). Central banks worldwide started focusing on reducing those interest rates for the sake of their economies and as a result those interest rates started falling.
Note: we also had a number of global financial crises after the 1990’s recession, right up to COVID which kept interest rates low, plus the rise of China and their cheap goods helped drive rates even lower to historically low levels (as low as 3%)
The net result was not only that credit was now available, it was also cheap (eg. if a family could previously borrow $250k at 15%, they could now borrow $1m at 3%).
The banks loved it, the property developers loved it, other profit makers loved it, those who already had property loved it, and successive governments loved it (via increased tax revenue).
But the overwhelming result was that people now had substantially more money to spend on a still limited supply of housing opportunities which simply drove prices up through the roof (a situation that continues to this present day).
And yes, we could mention other drivers such as family-home GST exemptions, population growth and migration numbers, CGT discounts on investment assets, negative gearing, supply scarcity and planning constraints, as they are indeed relevant, but from a “cause and effect” perspective, it’s the two main occurrences as discussed above that have directly led to where we are now.
Blame is pointless once the horse has bolted, what we should be doing now is developing practical, realistic and achievable policy and solutions to address the fact that first home buyers in Australia can’t afford to buy a house.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

Kirsti:
You have made an incredibly and incredulously long extrapolation from “if it were up to me they would be in jail” to your subsequent notion of “no investigation, no charges, no trial and no conviction”.
Whatever happens to Andrew’s and
Allen will occur through the required legal and judicial process despite your alarmist inferring.

… And then they will end up in jail.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

@BobBurn97207272 Economics 101.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

No sarcasm intended Robyn,
I have personally been interested in this particular topic for years from a non partisan perspective.
Having said that, if one wants to look at why housing prices have risen so much since 1980, you also need to look at the changes in economic conditions over that time from a policy perspective and who implemented or presided over those changes.
I’ve always been interested in why do governments (irrespective of their political persuasion) do the things that they do.
The fact is that inner city housing prices in Brisbane have increased between 1,200% to 1,600% since the late 1980’s to now (depending on which suburbs you look at)
Let that sink in for a moment.
Why did this massive increase in housing prices occur?
Of course there are a number of reasons, and many of them acted in concert (and still do), but the 2 most significant reasons were:
1. Financial deregulation (including the floating of the Australian currency) and the expansion of credit under the Hawke/Keating Labor government (1983 to 1996). They did this for various reasons of course (not discussed here), but what they didn’t expect was a massive increase in the availability of mortgage credit (a phenomenon that the now deregulated banking industry cottoned onto quickly and took full advantage of by focusing on residential mortgages).
In effect credit was made available.

2. Falling Interest rates under:
Labor - (Hawke, Keating, Rudd, Gillard and Albanese)
and ALSO under
Coalition - (Howard, Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison).
Note that getting interest rates down was largely a monetary policy phenomenon rather than a party-political one.
As you know, interest rates in the early 1980’s were very high (up to 18%). Central banks worldwide started focusing on reducing those interest rates for the sake of their economies and as a result those interest rates started falling.
Note: we also had a number of global financial crises after the 1990’s recession, right up to COVID which kept interest rates low plus the rise of China and their cheap goods helped drive rates even lower to historically low levels (as low as 3%)
The net result was not only that credit was now available, it was also cheap (eg. if a family could previously borrow $250k at 15%, they could now borrow $1m at 3%).
The banks loved it, the property developers and other profit makers loved it, those who already had property loved it, and successive governments loved it (via increased tax revenue).
But the overwhelming result was that people now had substantially more money to offer on a still limited supply of housing opportunities which simply drove prices up through the roof (a situation that continues to this present day).
And yes, we could mention other drivers such as family-home GST exemptions, population growth and migration numbers, CGT discounts on investment assets, negative gearing, supply scarcity and planning constraints, as they are indeed relevant, but from a “cause and effect” perspective, it’s the two main occurrences as discussed above that have directly led to where we are now.
Blame is pointless once the horse has bolted, what we should be doing now is developing practical, realistic and achievable policy and solutions to address the fact that first home buyers in Australia can’t afford to buy a house.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

@luke_amott Would you consider the CFMEU as a sort of “billionaire”?

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

@ellymelly More rhetorical questions!
I love ‘em.
But sadly (and typically) no answers from the most destructive government we have ever had.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

@AvidCommentator That’s not a pot hole mate.
It’s clearly a public swimming pool.
And one that was generously provided free of charge by the Victorian Labor Government.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

@BenjaminBlca Consistent

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

@DrewPavlou Apparently her father was quite good with the “rest and recovery” process. It is alleged that he facilitated the rest of a number of people on a permanent basis, with the recovery bit subsequently being handled by morticians.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

@BenCarrollMP Sounds good.
But why NOW, you plonker?
(That is a rhetorical question by the way).

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

@TruthFairy131 Sorry, but just looking at and listening to Gregory gives me the creeps.
And the thought of him having the remotest influence on the direction of our country is truly terrifying.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

You say “This is all about strengthening cooperation, boosting investment and building resilience in both our economies in Australia’s national interest”.

Sound like the same old scripted talking points Jim.

Strengthening cooperation in what areas?
Boosting investment in what sectors?
And how exactly, are you building resilience in our economy.

You are supposed to be our Treasurer mate, not just a talking head sprouting meaningless rhetoric.

[The Nosh @NoshHAC1987]

Buy your own coffee machine?
A typical comment from someone who has no idea about either how small businesses run or the value of them to the local community.
A massive number of small businesses like cafes, corner stores and restaurants rely on repeat customers. A large proportion of those customers are locals, just like the business owners themselves.
Under Labor, small businesses have have been forced to continually increase their prices just to keep up with such things as hikes in power costs, increased rent, higher delivery of products due to increased fuel prices etc. Not to mention increased pressure on cash flow due to new tax compliance and IR rules and penalties (because now they can’t just “scape by” until they hit busy periods to meet those obligations).
If a customer uses a card to pay then the business owner must either pass on the surcharge or pay the surcharge themselves.
It is that simple because the surcharge does not magically disappear.
Small businesses owners are typically most embarrassed and apologetic when they are forced to increase their prices under any circumstance.
I have witnessed those conversations many, many times, and it’s not easy because businesses owners know that the wider community is also suffering it with their own financial situations.
If prices continue to rise then enviably people will reduce their spending which in turn will impact those local businesses, a great many of them who employ local people by the way.
If they don’t increase their prices then they go backwards.
When those businesses are squeezed too far they close, which then impacts the whole community (loss of services, loss of variety and choice, and loss of local jobs).
Credit card surcharges are just the fine tip of a wider issue, and that issue is the increasingly punitive approach that Labor is taking to small businesses in general.
They are called small businesses for a reason… they are SMALL.
Their operations are typically small, their turnover is small, and moreover their profit margins are also small.
Nevertheless, they play a BIG role in the local economy and community.
They will in most cases try to look after customers who pay in cash by offering discounts, but when the cost of just staying open keeps going up and up and up, prices must also go up in line with those increases.
But what happens when those price increases reach a point where struggling customers are not longer willing to pay them?
The problem is much bigger than surcharges, and Labor damn well know it.
But the politicians will just keep banging on about the small stuff without addressing the wider underlying issues.
They can’t do otherwise as that would be tantamount to admitting they have screwed small businesses right across the nation on a massive scale.
Politicians are, on the whole, incredibly insulated from how the average person is surviving in this day and age.
Look at the rorting, look at the remuneration, look at the waste, look at the bureaucracy, look at the inefficiency. Look at the policies that just keep making things harder.
And look at the absolute hypocrisy.
Now look at the number of small businesses that have gone under, and will continue to do so in the near future, not because they were bad operators, but because they just couldn’t afford to stay open as a result of this Government’s destructive policies and resultant indifference.
Just buy your own coffee machine and make your coffee at home?
Fuck off, you are absolutely a weak, clueless and complicit excuse for a politician.