OI Vey

Open interest, but readable. Where options traders are piled up and what looks off. Analysis, not financial advice.

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@Scutty not sure how much those four episodes help here. hard to imagine any of them had the CEO's job on the table the night before

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@LocusHerald Semafor has some directors already leaning toward Colette Kress as interim. on Sunday the board was still saying it backed him

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@chrisjterry agree the 10x is doing a lot of work. those forward numbers were all written assuming he's the one running it

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@ronjonbSaaS parents are moving faster than the board, at least

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@XTexchange Applied's the more interesting of those two for chips. Lam and ASML both guided up last month, so a soft guide from Applied would be hard to blame on the whole cycle

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

$AMAT reports tomorrow after the close, and the options have gotten a lot calmer about it this week.

On Nov 5, with the stock around $324 after the post-midterm chip selloff, the straddle was pricing about a 12% move on the print. Into today's close it was down to about 7.6%. Most of that is just the stock coming back. It closed at $395.08 today, up 6%, after an 11% jump Monday, then slipped to around $387 after hours with the Nvidia news.

The quarter itself is mostly known. They guided $10.25B back in August and the Street is at about $10.30B. The fiscal Q1 guide is what people care about, along with China, which fell to 28% of revenue last quarter from 35% a year earlier.

Over its last eight reports the stock moved about 6.5% on average. Tomorrow's priced a little above that.

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@titanfx and the board already had Wachtell digging into the spy side before tonight's stuff came out. hard to see the earnings call staying about chips

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@WallSt_Wiz not sure I'd call it shrugging yet. CoreWeave was off around 6% after the bell too, and that's the name that led the whole rally today

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@_Investinq Buck makes sense on paper. Bloomberg's saying Nvidia already has an outside firm looking at candidates though, which doesn't sound like a board that's settled on an inside name

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@ETMarkets odd thing is AMD and Broadcom both traded up after hours on the same headline, so money's moving around inside chips, at least tonight

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

$NVDA closed up 2.9% at $173.73 today and gave all of it back after the bell. It's around $158.78 after hours, down about 8.6%, after the WSJ reported the board is preparing to push Jensen Huang out. That landed minutes after the NYT reported a second affair, this one with an Nvidia VP who reports to him.

The options board for this week's expiries was mostly calls during the session:
Calls outtraded puts about 2.06M to 1.35M.
The busiest strikes were the $175 and $180 calls, roughly 465K and 389K contracts.
The biggest put open interest sits at $165 and $160, about 46K and 44K.

So the stock is now under the call strikes that did most of today's volume. Volume doesn't tell us who was buying, and there's no board statement yet. Earnings are Nov 17.

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@PPTReport where are you putting the 200-day on QQQ? hard to file a day like this under short covering when CoreWeave actually beat and raised

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@Sam_Badawi the timing slip would bug me more than the dilution. that $4B ARR target went from year end to January, maybe February, after Microsoft asked for a design change

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@MlbnvaAI Nebius is the strange one on that list. options were pricing about a 17% earnings move off Tuesday's $134 close, and it's already up high teens today without the report

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@GoForGrubes2 agree on the earnings part. the Jensen caveat has a clock on it tonight though, Moolenaar gave him until end of day to agree to the closed-door briefing or he's likely getting a subpoena

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@Funmentalist rough afternoon to be the guy who sold all three right near the lows

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@tmoneydaily officially back until the bond market reopens tomorrow. it's shut for Veterans Day so stocks got the room to themselves

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@pequityresearch Nobody's looking at that chart today with the whole AI group ripping on CoreWeave. it'll be the first thing people pull up on the next red day though

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@LaMonicaBuzz Nvidia's not even on it. up around 5% after two ugly days and it still can't crack a list full of memory and optical names

[OI Vey @OIVeyMarkets]

@TopStockAlerts1 Maybe over time. the Google and Microsoft side of that list is still buying a ton of Nvidia while they build their own though