Olli Heinonen

Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

Those lines can be used in various ways. One is to tell to the adversary that we are going to hit you. Keep your head down, and scores have been settled.

[Behnam Ben Taleblu بهنام بن طالب لو @therealBehnamBT]

The deconfliction hotline has either failed its first stress test or has fallen flat before even being set up.

Iranian drone attacks on commercial vessels. US strikes on Iranian missile storage and coastal defense sites.

Man, it reminds you of the 67 day ceasefire (war), no?

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

Important points. A serious assessment of risks on Iran’s capabilities to have a small enrichment installation using enriched uranium recovered from the destroyed sites and centrifuge components survived the strikes is needed. Iran has experienced engineers to do all that.

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

I'm on @CarnegieEndow's podcast with @JonKBateman to discuss Iran's nuclear program
👉Why the U.S. was forced to accept a bad deal
👉Why that bad deal is the best way forward
👉Why I'm pessimistic about preventing Iran from proliferating

https://t.co/bWbuOczYwH

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

@laurnorman @AmichaiStein1 I suggest to the IAEA: Festina lente. Learn from the Agreed Framework, Six-Party Talks, JCPOA, etc to ensure that the IAEA is able to proceed and meet its obligations timely.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

@ChoukeirJ It is an important topic related to the Iran’s nuclear weapons related activities which needs still to be addressed. In addition, also cruise missile capabilities has to be dealt with.

[Der Panzerjaeger @DiePanzerjaeger]

@ChoukeirJ Comme si l Iran en avait quelque chose à foutre de ce branleur.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

@nedprice The Obama deal restricted key nuclear activities for limited periods giving the opportunity for Iran to return fully to the nuclear hedging approach.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

@aarondmiller2 @NegarMojtahedi @CarnegieEndow @CEIPStatecraft @MaloneySuzanne @ksadjadpour Worth of watching. Reality check while awaiting to see the final agreement with side understandings.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

@BrunoTertrais Plus you need to know whether any side deals and understandings.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

@laurnorman I would not be overly surprised if Iran will still suggest modification to the text. These could be due to the events still unfolding at home or outside and/or last attempts to get additional benefits.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

@james_acton32 @ArmsControlWonk A good decision. My experience from the Middle East tells me that. Even after signing it is like my father, a lawyer, told me “Law is not how it is written, but how it is read”.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

Up to lawyers to judge whether those communications are legally binding before the actual official signing ceremony. Text signed is the one counting and the administration signing it is the one kept accountable.

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

@OlliHeinonen OK. Let's stake this step by step.

The US government says the deal has already been signed electronically.

Do you think it's lying? Would hardly be unprecedented but is that your position here?

https://t.co/OIO29qe89x
https://t.co/UOoB9nWsDb

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

We have noted that Gharibabadi has said the MoU will be made public when signed. Probably agreed by the parties ? I can wait to see that it is really signed. More interesting question is whether there are any side understandings not made public. Just from my past experience.

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

"Not an unusual practice."

Care to give some other examples of a deal involving the United States that was signed privately and then not released for 5 days until a public ceremony?

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

Just to remind all that the JCPOA was not signed and there was subsequently no signature ceremony. On coming Friday we should see the text released in full. Not an unusual practice.

[(((James Acton))) @james_acton32]

We still don't have the text of a deal. Very different from the transparency surrounding the JCPOA, which was released in full along with the Mogherini-Zarif joint statement announcing negotiations had concluded.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

@DAVIDHALBRIGHT1 Iran has learned not to place all eggs in one basket. Centrifuges and their components are being produced in multiple locations in Iran. In order to maintain the deterrence, Iran may see it prudent to proceed in a really unknown site. As in 2004 with Al Ghadir/Fordow.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

It will be interesting to see how the banks handle the release of funds. Ambassador Chris Hill, the former NK envoy, may have some suggestions to that end.

[Eric Brewer @BrewerEricM]

Does Iran worry the U.S. won’t uphold its end of the bargain in a deal? Absolutely.
But that doesn’t mean that releasing frozen funds is principally about building trust, as Iran claims. It’s not. It’s about Iran, in a deep economic hole, trying to get its hands on as much money as possible for both the immediate economic benefit and in case things turn south and the war resumes. Iran also knows that the Strait is one of the few strong cards it has to play, so its demands here are going to be high.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

It is also high time to engage experienced negotiators on top of the messengers.

[Bruno Tertrais @BrunoTertrais]

Breaking: Hardy & Laurel have at last realized that they needed experts

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

Restoring and development further all missile and nuclear capabilities two technically oriented IRGC leaders on those topics should be added to the list. These topics are vital to maintain threat.

[Alan Eyre @AlanEyre1]

Key people in Iran's current leadership - WHO AM I MISSING? (I know, President Pezeshkian is not on list)
#IranWar‌
1. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
2. Seyyed Mehdi Khamoushi – Beyt Chief of Staff.
3. Hojjatoleslam Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejhe’I – Judiciary head.
4. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf – Majlis Speaker.
5. Hossein Taeb -former IRGC Intel Head.
6. BG Ahmad Vahidi – IRGC Commander.
7. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr – SNSC Director.
8. Ali Akbar Ahmadian – Leader’s Rep on Supreme Defense Council.
9. MG Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi -Khatam al-Anbiya Central HQS Commander.
10. BG Seyyed Majid Mousavi - IRGC Aerospace Force Commander.
11. MG Mohammadi Ali Jaafari -Former IRGC Commander.
12. Yahya Rahim Safavi – Former IRGC Commander.
13. Mohsen Rezai- Expediency Council Member.

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

There is no corroborated information to confirm that all enriched uranium is on those locations and no evidence that Iran had been able until now to build an installation using stocks of centrifuges and components. High time for independent verification of facts on ground.

[Andrea Stricker @StrickerNonpro]

Would add to this that Iran currently lacks access to enriched material due to U.S. & Israeli access denial, and lacks key weaponization facilities, equipment, and personnel.

The strikes likely set back a breakout option from six months to 2.5 years. https://t.co/gWu4iLNuut

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

In week’s time the ceasefire is two months old. Another 60 days to negotiating details for the restrictions. Iran is restoring and building further missile and nuclear capabilities. Some of those are visible, some not. The deal may be better than the JCPOA, but not good enough.

[Ronen Bergman @ronenbergman]

President Trump has toughened the terms of a potential framework for a deal to end the war in Iran, and has sent those proposed changes back to the country for consideration, according to three officials.

W\@lukebroadwater and @tylerpager via @nytimes

https://t.co/vKnbTpMfs3

[Olli Heinonen @OlliHeinonen]

If there is an agreement, it will be interesting to see whether it will be brought to the UN Security Council for “some kind of supporting” resolution. It will not be about the NPT only, but also about the freedom of navigation.

[laurence norman @laurnorman]

@RZimmt Will we even see the MoU? Will Iran ever sign it off or just take reciprocal action for action?
Because I am pretty sure the WH would be happy for us not to be able to state its concessions in black and white.