E

web3⚛️

[beeple @beeple]

AI BUBBLE

[E @OnChainGrind]

@Shaughnessy119 Good take!

[Tommy @Shaughnessy119]

The most basic way AI could blow up imo. I'm not saying it does but this is the most obvious way I can see it happening

- Per seat subscriptions are massively subsidized. The flat fee was priced way below what heavy usage actually costs

- For real business use you have to move to the API anyway. Data protections, work integrations and compliance officer approval

- On the API you pay metered rates, and businesses are burning credits way faster than the per seat pricing ever led them to expect

- This is everywhere right now. Internally for us, Codex users, Uber torching its entire 2026 AI budget in 4 months, the Microsoft comments. Just go try an API

I shared more on this here: https://t.co/iZrqrCAIRW

- And I don't think most businesses have the money to keep paying increasing API rates without a real change to how they operate (caps needed)

- Because they have a cheap alternative. They can reach open source models through any aggregator (OpenRouter, Venice, Baseten, Together) and still get strong privacy. Venice private data centers, or E2EE/TEE serving GLM 5.1.

More on open source inference provider raises here: https://t.co/7kf56P44yQ

- And the discount is enormous. DeepSeek V4 codes within a hair of Opus on SWE bench at roughly 1/30th the price, and the cheapest open models run closer to 1/100th

- Chinese labs open source frontier grade models. The model is the single biggest cost an inference provider has, and they get it for free

- This idea dies if China goes closed source. That is actually bullish web2 AI labs, because if everyone is closed you pay up for the best intelligence. China goes closed source if they are tired of giving away an asset and they want the revenue and data flow to train new models

- Is this showing up in web2 AI lab revenue yet? No. Revenue is off the charts. Anthropic went from 9B to 47B run rate in five months

- So go forward, what happens?

- I think revenue slowly starts leaking to the open source inference providers (see Venice usage, OpenRouter's $113M raise, Baseten is raising at $11B or triple its valuation in three months, on revenue that went from $200M to $600M annualized in a single quarter)

- It doesnt move overnight, but it caps the labs ability to raise prices, and margins are already deeply negative. OpenAI is reportedly running near negative 122%

- With margins that bad there is no cash flow, so the labs are fully dependent on outside capital to buy GPUs, train models, and keep subsidizing usage (I.e. see Google tapping $80b equity sale, granted 30b for employee RSU taxes. Clearly they think Equity is overvalued or you wouldn't sell it)

- The break comes when that capital stops. Pricing is capped so margins cant improve, and the moment investors lose conviction on payback, the whole flow reverses

- Why would they lose conviction on payback? Back to the start - the inability to improve margins or get businesses to pay more

- This is also limiting, if we start making new drugs with AI or create entirely new businesses, you better believe people will pay up to the max for AI usage

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔GitHub Copilot switched to token-based billing this morning and users are already out of credits. Pro+ subscribers paying $39 a month are reporting 60% of their credits gone in two hours of normal use. One user lost 20% of their allowance from a single file review with no code changes. Another hit their monthly cap before the calendar even flipped to June.
Orgs with shared token pools have no way to see individual usage, so entire teams get cut off when one person runs a heavy prompt. Users are canceling and moving to Claude Code and Codex. GitHub community forums are on fire.

My Take
Flat-rate AI subscriptions were always subsidized. Everyone in the industry knew it. Today the subsidy ran out for a few million developers at once. The problem is a lot of companies already restructured around these tools. They cut headcount and told remaining engineers to lean on Copilot instead of building skills internally. Those companies now depend on a tool whose cost just became unpredictable and whose usefulness completely changes when you have to ration prompts to stay under budget.

The developers moving to Claude Code and Codex will hit the same wall eventually. Every AI provider faces the same unit economics. Anthropic filed its S-1 this morning, and the durability of its revenue depends on whether customers stick around once real pricing kicks in everywhere. If a $39 subscriber cancels after one day because the tool became unusable, multiply that across millions of seats and the churn risk becomes very real.

Today showed what happens when AI pricing meets reality. The companies that built their workflows around cheap tokens just discovered the tokens aren't cheap anymore and the people who knew how to do the work without them are already gone.

Hedgie🤗

[EllioTrades @elliotrades]

This guy is setting the absolute bar

Inspiring

[Ansem @blknoiz06]

disagree, crypto is just going through a maturation phase

stablecoins, perps, & tokenization as themes will continue to proliferate throughout the global economy, and there will be many successful crypto startups that do well

hyperliquid is just the first of many startups that has done a great job of illustrating how open blockchains & tokenization of a business can be a dominant combination

current issues with sentiment around crypto are due to the largest coins not doing well, BTC went from $0.01 to $100k per coin in less than two decades, it very successfully achieved it's goal of maintaining value against the dollar as USD continuously lost its value, present day problems with the ponzification of bitcoin due to saylor's shenanigans is a temporary thing, i dont think you see btc trend aggressively again until that situation is resolved, also quantum concerns are real, those two things along with exit liquidity from institutions were strong reasons for BTC OGs to derisk into excess liquidity as we've seen examples of with that large galaxy otc sale they facilitated ($9B sale in 2025 for one entity), there are many individuals like that who are up infinite

but bitcoin underperforming for a few years after outperforming every other asset on earth for over a decade does not mean crypto is dead, thats silly

ethereum also is suffering for its own individual reasons, i feel like ive talked about this enough on here but yes its been outcompeted by new entrants & has not done a good job of making eth a great asset to hold, every L1 is struggling on the demand side because historically the story around these tokens was future growth & not real revenues, but now that hyperliquid has demonstrably shown that you can connect a business directly to the L1 token the previous L1s are struggling bc they dont capture enough revenues from the apps that use their infra, eth has it even worse bc it also outsources execution activity to rollups

but this also does not mean there cannot be more successful crypto startups

there is a very clear trend of regulation improving for crypto in general, which will make it much easier for entrepreneurs to build businesses that use crypto, it is also clear that existing tech companies are acknowledging the advantages of using blockchains as we've seen with robinhood, stripe/tempo, & others

AI has taken a lot of the mindshare away from crypto as tech stocks have been much better trades since the bottom in 2022, id say it would be extremely foolish to not be splitting time between stocks & crypto as a trader, before it made sense to be overexposed to crypto if you were willing to take on the risk as it was a new industry that experienced supernormal returns as it became more mainstream

three underdiscussed tailwinds for crypto as AI models become exponentially better over the next few years

1) open source AI will become a lot more competitive with closed source AI
2) it will become more easier for smaller teams to build successful startups using software
3) stablecoins & blockchains are much better rails for AI agents to transact on

combination of these trends means that it's likely that you see more crypto experimentation w/ tokens not less, especially as regulatory environment improves *and* retail speculation becomes a megatrend

[Hunter Horsley @HHorsley]

Tech used to have underdog energy —

David, with a dream most didn't believe, up against goliath.

These days tech feels more like goliath and the establishment.

Something I like about crypto, and crypto bear markets, is the return to underdog energy.

[Solana @solana]

Mastercard introduced always-on stablecoin settlement on Solana, Backpack announced a tokenized brokerage, and $716M of RWA capital flowed in last month, more than any other network. While the market looked one way, the institutions and builders kept shipping.

Here’s everything that happened:

📰 Headline News

- @Mastercard introduced always-on stablecoin settlement on Solana

- @Backpack announced Backpack Securities, merging traditional brokerage with Solana-native tokenization

- @SolanaFndn launched native Subscriptions and Allowances for delegated spending and recurring billing

📰 Launches

- @moonpay introduced the MoonAgents Desktop App, connecting ChatGPT or Claude so AI agents can pay onchain

- @sunrisedefi, @MeteoraAG and @BedrockFndn teamed to launch Dynamic Assets

- @SolanaFndn announced dedicated support for teams building fully onchain perpetuals and supporting infrastructure

- @bulktrade activated Season 1 with pre-deposits now open

- @ORE deployed a quantum-safe smart wallet to secure ORE holder and staking assets from quantum threats

- @craftsdev introduced equity-linked tokens, enabling onchain exposure to real company outcomes

- @useDecal debuted Decal Treasury, featuring automated yield engine that funds integrated corporate loyalty programs

- @axelar went live on Solana to enable cross-chain messaging and programmable asset transfers

- @PhoenixTrade launched mobile trading and cross-chain deposits

- @raikucom activated rkuSOL, an LST that routes three distinct streams of AOT and JIT auction revenue back to stakers

- @JupiterExchange rolled out TCG credit features on Jupiter Offerbook, utilizing @phygitals and @Collector_Crypt

- @moonshot released Moonshot Packs, bringing physical trading card experience onchain

- @packs_supply launched a collectibles SOV that rewards stakers with physical packs

- @Paytrie expanded the Canadian dollar stablecoin to Solana

- @strongholdpay expanded its SHx token network to Solana via @axelar

- @paj_cash debuted v2 of its payment platform, enabling account-based Web3 off-ramps

- @lava_xyz released Lava Card, a zero-annual-fee Visa debit card

- @Dyadnum launched a WhatsApp-native trade engine to streamline cross-chain asset routing

- @UmbraPrivacy launched its privacy-focused web interface

- @zodial_xyz shipped a portfolio-margin lending protocol

- @Certora formally verified Solana’s P-token upgrade

- @MonkeFoundry opened Cohort 2 applications, closing June 12

- @BitRobotNetwork announced applications for its robotics laboratory program

- @jaileddotfun launched Jailed, an onchain prison simulator game deployed on Solana

- @gachasports shipped a sports-led gacha platform

- @predikt_gg announced bringing cross-market access and leverage to @solana prediction market users

- @rektdrinks released SOL Berry, a Solana-themed sparkling water

📰 Milestones

- @solana led onchain collectibles markets with ~60% of total volume

- @Raydium crossed $2B in cumulative trading volume for tokenized equities

- Solana recorded the largest RWAs net capital inflow across chains in May crossing $716M

- @KASTxyz won Best Digital Assets Fintech at BeInCrypto Institutional 100 Awards

- @kamino's xStocks market surpassed $30M in total market size

- @solanamobile crossed 1K live apps on the dApp Store

- @helium_mobile, the consumer carrier built on Helium's Solana-based network, was acquired by Andrew Yang's @joinnoblemobil

If you enjoyed this week’s newsletter, please share it with an RT.

[EllioTrades @elliotrades]

Everyone told me $NBIS had "already pumped" and was a suckers bet

Meanwhile I'm up over 3X on my calls in size TODAY

Sorry my beloved crypto bros, your logic for trading Pepe the frog doesn't work here

AI stocks are in the greatest bull run of our lives

[EllioTrades Clips @ellioclips]

CoreWeave started as a crypto miner.

Then they pivoted their GPUs into AI.

$CRWV revenue went from $16M to $8B in 3 years.

They sell ONE thing: compute. The thing AI literally cannot exist without.

If you believe AGI is coming, you should own $CRWV.

Leopold's already in.

[Davinci Jeremie @Davincij15]

You can laugh at crypto or you can learn why the rich keep buying assets.

[Virtuals Protocol @virtuals_io]

This Week in the Virtuals Ecosystem 🟩

VIRTUALS
🟩 We integrated with @AskVenice to bring private, uncensored inference to anyone building agents on @base. We're committing $400,000 in credits across leading frontier and open-source models. Anyone can plug into EconomyOS via CLI or SDK and get free inference from day one.

🟩 We partnered with @ns (Network School) to bring the next wave of @base builders into the agent economy. Residents get EconomyOS, the full vertical agent stack, plus Venice private inference.

🟩 We hosted the first ERC-8183 Builder Session with the @ethereumfndn dAI team, alongside @BNBCHAIN, @okx, and @PRXVTai. ERC-8183 is the new Ethereum standard for agent commerce, how agents request work, pay for services, coordinate execution, and settle outcomes onchain.

🟩 We migrated our cross-chain stack to @chainlink CCIP. The upgrade strengthens cross-chain security for agents managing inference, cards, email, payments, services, commerce, and onchain value.

ECOSYSTEM
🟩 @pabloberlangab and his humanoid Pemba became the first to reach Mt. Chimborazo's summit, the closest point on Earth to the Sun. Furthermore, Pemba joins Eastworlds as a technical partner.

🟩 @bunnyo released v0.3 with a perps tab powered by @avantisfi and AI technical analysis powered by @PythNetwork. Multi-language support in English, Chinese, and Korean.

🟩 @H1DR4_agent launched Skynet Mode. The new investigation layer turns any name, wallet, phone number, or identifier into a full structured intelligence profile with entity resolution and actionable leads.

🟩 @StrikeRobot_ai published their SR-Platform paper on @arxiv. Coming in June: a free library of 10,000+ simulation-ready assets and layouts for robotics researchers and engineers, designed for MuJoCo environments at scale.

🟩 @OpenGradient launched OpenGradient Chat, a privacy-first generative AI platform. Every frontier model in one app with verifiable privacy.

🟩 @reppo launched Orquestra in beta. Users run local nodes that autonomously publish, predict, and earn from datanets 24/7. Network fees crossed 600K $REPPO cumulative, 1.5 months to 100K, then 23 days to 350K, then 10 days to 450K, then hours to 600K+.

🟩 @ArAIstotle partnered with @reppo for open prediction market analysis. Real-time feedback ingestion with analysis updates every 48 hours.

🟩 @maicrotrader released the Strategy Builder for their multi-agent trading infrastructure. Tri-modal builder with structured agent hierarchy for institutional-grade strategies.

🟩 @sibylcap launched Sibyl Memory in beta. Replaces flat agent memory files with structured retrieval, leaner context, relational queries, one source of truth per fact. Works with Hermes, Claude Code, and Codex.

🟩 @instaclaws launched ToolRouter integration with @worldnetwork. Verify your World ID and your agent instantly gets six premium tools wired in: agentic web search, cloud browser, deep research, data at scale, an email inbox, and full travel planning.

🟩 @charles__AI launched Base Smart Money Indexes powered by tokenized vaults. First lineup includes Blue Chip, Alpha, AI, Robotics, and Privacy indexes.

🟩 @717CapitalAI launching 717 Platform v1 today. Same-day KYC, USDC/USDT conversions, fiat-USD settlement across 15+ jurisdictions, fees as low as 0.04%.

Agents keep shipping.
See you next week.

[Teddy - PolyBackTest.com @Bitcoin_Teddy]

BLACKROCK CEO LARRY FINK SAYS:

“MARKETS WILL RISE AND FALL. BUBBLES COME AND GO. THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS IS STAYING INVESTED THROUGH EVERY CYCLE.”

[JAKE @JakeGagain]

Forever Bullish On Crypto Currency.

[mert @mert]

crypto is the youngest frontier industry

chains didn't even scale until 2.5y ago and were borderline unusable at high traffic. not anymore

either the industry is over forever, or you're emotional and outsourced your brain to a chart

we get 10x bigger from here

[E @OnChainGrind]

Time in the market, beats timing the market

[Arthur Hayes @CryptoHayes]

The Holy Trinity is dead. Sadly due to the Orchard Pool exploit, I had to dump our entire $ZEC bag.
- While I think it's extremely unlikely of any minting, it cannot be formally cryptographically proved impossible
- The privacy from AI, govt, big tech narrative demands perfection not improbability
- I read about the exploit yday, and didn't appreciate how it violated my narrative mental map. The 30% dump, made me rethink, and I had to take profit on the entire position
- We will consistently re-evaluate our thinking and if my assumptions are proven incorrect, will rebuy, hopefully at lower prices.
- Privacy is priceless and I have no issue eating humble pie and rebuying much higher.

We still hold $WLD and are excited for Lord Elon to pump our bags.

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

Watching all the Solana scammers go down with the Zcash ship is just *chef’s kiss*

[E @OnChainGrind]

Buy low sell high

[E @OnChainGrind]

@mert Double down and buy the dip!