Lemon

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Periodic reminder to not lose your shit...

[Jason Pizzino 🌞 @jasonpizzino]

I am 38 years old this year. Also, this year, 2024, the 18.6-year RE Cycle is in the "Winner's Curse" phase, which means real estate, stocks, assets like #Bitcoin, and commodities are still in macro bull markets that could last until 2026(ish), give or take.

The next time we are in this phase of the cycle, I will probably be in my mid-50s. We only get 2, maybe 3, chances at this cycle in our lifetimes. Do not waste it.

→ Bookmark and share this for future reference 🔖

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

One quote that consistently saves me from making bad financial decisions time & time again:

When trying to make money, act slowly.

When trying to protect money, act quickly.

Most people do the opposite.

[Charles Edwards @caprioleio]

🚨 𝗠𝗔𝗝𝗢𝗥 𝗕𝗜𝗧𝗖𝗢𝗜𝗡 𝗧𝗢𝗣 𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗦 🚨

Forget price targets. This is a list of cycle top signals to watch.

How far away is the cycle top? Is it in?

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

2. Market Value Realised Value (MVRV) Z-Score

MVRV = Market Value - Realised Value (i.e. the last on-chain price of BTC).

The Z-Score is currently at 3, below 6 (last cycle peak) & 7 (historical high).

This metric suggests there's still room to run this cycle.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

It is extremely likely that this #Bitcoin cycle sees some sort of double top. Price is right on track to make the first of the two tops.

But we're not quite there yet.

The double top is not as apparent on price in 2017, but a look at data like the Monthly RVI shows it clearly.

Data has reached points not possible outside of the final year of the bull run, at our relative previous positions the cycle has always been over within the year.

Another data piece to show why this cycle is so far one year advanced and on track for a top late this year.

Still waiting on the RVI cycle top zone entry, getting close!

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

#Bitcoin is facing resistance for the first time in a while at ATHs (69k), which is completely natural.

Our cycle is heating up, but it is not over.

The Monthly Relative Vigor Index has crossed a .21 value, which in the past has marked a cycle top to come in 10 Months, December of this year.

Corrections reduce the risk of parabolic price action, that could bring a double top which is tricky to navigate.

Bitcoin continues to respect data whether this cycle is accelerated or not.

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

I'm starting to bid again.

Slowly, but averaging into some positions across AI, L1s, memes (majors only) etc.

Could we go lower? Yes.

But you're never going to time bottoms (or tops).

Bull market positioning is simple - buy extreme fear, sell extreme greed.

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

7. DON'T OUTSMART YOURSELF

When retail floods back into the market, they gravitate towards narratives they can easily understand.

They don't want to buy the latest L3 ZK cross-chain interoperability aggregator.

I wrote an entire thread on this concept if you're interested.

[Willy Woo @willywoo]

At the rate the #Bitcoin Macro Index is pumping, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a top by mid-2024, which would hint at a double pump cycle like 2013... a second top in 2025.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The Pi Cycle Top is the most popular #Bitcoin cycle top calling indicator that exists.

And for good reason, it was 1 day off from the top in April 2021 and between 1 and 3 days for every top before it.

But before that cross can happen, price needs to stay above the 350 DMA*2 priced at $70,400 and increasing.

It has been stiff resistance in every cycle.

The first touch of the Moving Average in a cycle has typically been the mid-top (purple arrows), but with price making new ATHs, this seems to be a late-stage retest.

Late-stage retests are much quicker and come before the true cycle top parabola.

This cycle still has plenty of room for growth!

[CrisZ @0xCris2163]

@100trillionUSD The difference between your coin and #Bitcoin    is your fav influencer is pumping your bag rn. The rest of the entire world is pumping our bag forever.

[Nova @CryptoGirlNova]

If you haven't made a large win yet that's fine and you don't need to.

But if you've made a good call, a large winning strike in your portfolio?

Secure 10-20% of that. Take it and never look back.

Eventually you don't want to be the one that lost money.

[Nova @CryptoGirlNova]

If you don't feel like taking lots of profits that's fine.

If you didn't make lots of money yet that is also fine.

But everyone should take profits even when it's a tiny bit.

Even if it's just a few dollars.

Turn it into a habit so you're ready when you need it the most

[Nova @CryptoGirlNova]

1️⃣ Turn it into a habbit

Lots of people say they will take-profit eventually.

But taking profits is a mental game.

When prices keep going up it's the hardest thing to do because you think you will miss out.

If you don't practice it now, you'll never do it.

[Freedom By 40 @Freedom_By_40]

One more #BTC post that supports the idea that we are about to go into a major blow off top over the next 4-8 months..

Monthly RSI and how it relates to BTC peaks.. (as you can see the peak RSI and most powerful part of the previous move was not at 69k in November but in April at 65k, the 69k move was manipulated up/weak underlying price action overall).

Now just because we may get a short term peak in 2024 (July-December) this doesn't mean there won't be another peak in late 2025 or 2026 I am just saying we are likely to go insane and then cool off quite drastically before we possibly make another run later imo.

#Bitcoin

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

Bull market CT engagement is a different level

engagement brings dopamine, and the best way to get engagement in a bull market is to haphazardly bullpost

a lot of your “heroes” are really just left-curvers who are high on that dopamine rush, and have been making the same arguments repeatedly since last cycle’s top in 2021

many will end up leading you to the slaughter this time too

a reminder that you can’t rely on anyone but yourself

learn to be objective about things, have your own system, a deep understanding about your approach, and always be ready and willing to adapt

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

But honestly, having an exit strategy is not the hard part.

The hardest part is the ability to follow the plan when euphoria hits.

Greed plays weird tricks on the mind.

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

This framework could be as simple as de-risking when you start noticing pre-determined top signals (celebrities tweeting, laser eyes, super bowl ads etc).

Or, you could combine technical indicators that signal a reversal.

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

Let me give you an example.

Say, you made $15k on a memecoin like $WIF.

• Rotate $5k into stables
• Rotate $5k into $BTC/$ETH
• Let the rest $5k ride or rotate to an altcoin with better fundamentals.

The exact numbers vary based on your risk tolerance, but you get the idea.