My Second NBA Winner Today💨
Reed Sheppard 12.5 Pts “O”
(-124)DK
🏀#2 #AllFire Vs #TrueToAtlanta
150❤️FOR MY POD NEXT ASAP?
We go back to Sheppard who’s been super reliable for us off the bench at home.
ATL profiles as a mediocre C&S matchup for Shep, but they play at the 2nd fastest pace which Reed has had a ton of success vs similar matchups going OVER in 6/7 games w 26+ minutes.
Sheppard is O in 31/44(71%) of games with 25+ minutes this season.
Books have his 3PA’s (-150) o 7.5 3PA’s.
Sheppard w 8+ 3PA’s is O in 19/23 games.
Against ATL we backed him earlier where he dropped 13 points off 5/14 shooting which is exactly the volume we’re looking for. He’s been the hot hand recently, I’ll trust that to continue backing one of the better shooters in the league. 🔐
Cash the 14x demon slip for the DubClub! ✅✅🔥🔥🔥
Today wasn’t the best day but this came in very clutch!
Tomorrow we hit for more ! Gonna have a menu tonight!
$10 to join ⬇️⬇️
https://t.co/Ag4YwjrzyJ
NBA POTD #4🏀 (March 13th)
Cooked w/ @PropKitchen 🤝@SafeHavenBets
1. Evan Mobley O17.5 Points💎(-130 BetMGM)
#LetEmKnow vs #MFFL
Mobley gets a solid opportunity boost in this spot with Jarrett Allen out. When Allen is off the floor this season, Mobley takes on a bigger scoring role and has cleared this line 9 of 15 times, averaging 19.3 points per game.
The numbers get even better in the current lineup context. Without Allen and with Harden on the floor, Mobley has gone over in 3 of 4 games, averaging 18.8 PPG, showing he benefits from the added spacing and playmaking.
The matchup also works in his favor, with him running the center position without Allen he faces a Mavs team that allows the 2nd most points to centers with an average of 24.6 PPG. the last 10 games 56% of opposing power forwards have cleared their scoring line against them, by an average of 1.56 points.
Starting Centers have absolutely feasted against them and 10/13 have went over their points line over the past month, notable performances include:
✅ Mark Williams: 14 (Line: 13.5)
✅ Jaxson Hayes: 20 (Line: 10.5)
✅ Rudy Gobert: 23 (Line: 13.5)
✅ Nic Claxton: 25 (Line: 16.5)
✅ Wendell Carter: 16 (Line: 12.5)
✅ Neemias Queta: 16 (Line: 10.5)
✅ Jakob Poeltl: 20 (Line: 13.5)
✅ Onyeka Okongwu: 20 (Line: 18.5)
The three that did not go over were Diabate, OMP and Hartenstein, however Chet Holmgren, Taylor Hendricks and Ryan Kalkbrenner went over their lines in those games.
Mobley's game aligns perfectly takes 71% of his shot attempts <10 feet from the basket where the Mavs rank 27th in defending. They also allow the MOST points in the paint this season, against teams in the bottom ten in points allowed in the paint Mobley has scored 18+ points in 8/12 & in 7 straight when playing 30+ minutes. With Mobley scoring a good amount of his points in transition, it bodes well that Dallas plays at the 6th fastest pace in the league. With 30+ minutes, Mobley has went over this line in 9/10 games against teams in the top ten for pace with an average of 20.9 PPG.
With Allen out creating more scoring opportunities and a favorable matchup against Dallas, Mobley has a strong chance to clear 17.5 points in this spot.
Data backed by @propsdotcash 📊 Use code “AltLine25” for 25% off your 1st month!
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