It's Econ 101, Buddy

Economically useful?

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

check out my vibe coded video game it has no plot because I just had AI do everything

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

@NAccount32629 @liquidated777 Just look up the calcs for both kinds of options. It is about 1/2 the probability.

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

@liquidated777 Yeah, but since it's settle on daily closing below, it needs to settle under that level the chances are much much lower than just touching that price with an intraday spike.

Side note: much of the value is just what you think the implied or realized vol will be over next 40 days

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

@liquidated777 haha nah you're good. It's just basically a settle option that is only worth 9% (if the touch option is indeed worth 18% through end of year)

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

@liquidated777 Rules are : - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

@liquidated777 One small point: that's not a touch option for SOXX or NVDA, it's a settle option. Worth 1/2 a touch option approximately

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

@JerryCap Jensen wears a rubber: confirmed

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

@GaetenD some people shouldn't have credit if they need to borrow money at 30%

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

Not a real liquidation until $GLD liquidates too. Everything has to liquidate

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

I do think both nates models and prediction markets pretty much nailed this election. Does not mean that either or both will be the same next election, but it really was pretty impressive

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

The argument of polls vs markets is an interesting one because yes they largely lined up but if looking for edge with one over the other, wouldn't you want to focus almost entirely on where they disagree?

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

Nate already did this with charts. I have no real dog in this fight as I don't really care what peoples conclusions are on this because it's really not terribly important

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

None of this means that any individual market will be priced correctly or will be predictive, but it could give us an idea of who to listen to and at what confidence vs everyone just saying their opinions as fact and not remembering their false predictions.

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

I do somewhat subscribe to the DARPA early prediction market idea of we have people put money on the line re their thoughts about events/future and we trust those who win more and who size positions appropriately (confidence).

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

Anon have you tried not being scared?

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

Okay a few 0 days for the first time in years not sure what that means

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

I think most importantly spending cuts of the magnitude needed don't happen voluntarily. The market or an outside force needs to pressure politicians at this point

[PunishedZulu @PunishedZulu]

He was right.

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

What a pain trade $MAGS vs $SMH

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

@DustinGouker just curious, why is it so much better?

[It's Econ 101, Buddy @OneofOne83]

$SMH people getting liquidated huh