"Wealth for one person in the family does not give security. What gives security is to see that we democratize prosperity around us as much as possible." - Tony Elumelu
This has been a painstakingly difficult conversation in both private and public sector investments especially the latter, where investors keep demanding sovereign guarantees like it’s the holy grail.
The wild part? From the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic, Cape of Good Hope to the Mediterranean, half those guarantees are basically IOUs written on wet tissue paper. The other half? Governments either unwilling or flat-out incapable of issuing them. And if it’s not that headache, it’s the eternal side-eye on “stability.”
My answer, every single time?
There’s nowhere else on Earth you’ll pull the kind of returns Africa is serving right now. 🔥
FDI in key sectors here is averaging 15.5% IRR/ROI - smoking the global average of ~7% and leaving developed markets in the dust. We’re talking high-growth energy, infrastructure, fintech, manufacturing, and more in a continent with the world’s youngest population and exploding consumer markets.
It’s not blind optimism. Data backs it: Africa delivered some of the highest returns on foreign investment for years, and even with global FDI dipping, East Africa (hello, Kenya) is surging because the fundamentals are screaming opportunity.
In the spirit of keeping it real: Sovereign debt distress is no joke - many governments are juggling high debt loads, defaults, and fiscal tightropes, which makes those guarantees shaky for big projects. Counterparty risk is real. Political stability varies by country, no sugarcoating. Global media loves amplifying the chaos while downplaying the steady progress in places like Nairobi.
Your alpha: Experienced players get the early-mover edge. The risk perception is skewed - but the rewards for those who diligence it properly? Asymmetric as hell.
Risk pricing is the real answer.
Nairobi is primed for this wave. Strategic location, young talent, improving ease of doing business, SEZs, and that East African Community gateway. Global capital - if you’re reading this from London, New York, Dubai, Singapore, or wherever - strike while the iron is blazing hot.
Come build. Come partner. Come win.
What’s stopping the flood of smart money into Nairobi? Drop your thoughts below - investors, fund managers, policymakers, advisors, let’s talk. @RovenCapital
Why is the perception of risk towards Africa so skewed?
As an investor with a diversified portfolio across 4 continents—from power to oil & gas, financial services, and healthcare—I can tell you one thing: nowhere else offers the kind of ROI than Africa does.
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In the county-era presidential elections, no county has voted more for Raila than HB County.
2013: Homa Bay 98.93%.
Aug 2017: Homa Bay 99.40%
2022: Homa Bay 98.93%.
To have the governor of HB publicly wailing about zoning is an indirect admission of how weak the current…
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