This is potentially the biggest Iran story nobody is talking about: the global insurance market may be heading toward a systemic crisis. Here’s why…
Most people don’t realize London isn’t just a financial center it’s THE center of global insurance.
Lloyd’s underwrites ~40% of the world’s marine cargo. Ship sinks, port gets bombed, canal gets blocked the bill lands in London.
This is why the UK punches above its weight. Not the Royal Navy. Not diplomacy. Insurance.
Control insurance, control trade.
And London doesn’t just control the 90% of global trade that moves by sea. Lloyd’s and the London market are major insurers of almost everything skyscrapers, factories, ports, satellites, entire supply chains.
You can’t participate in public markets or raise large amounts of capital without insurance.
Now, the normal playbook for war risk is repricing, not cancellation.
Canceling coverage entirely is a massive escalation in underwriting posture. It signals something beyond risk, it signals uncertainty so deep the underwriter can’t even price it.
The question everyone should be asking: why?
Why not just jack up premiums and make a fortune off the crisis like they did in the Black Sea off Ukraine?
To answer that, you have to understand WHY London has maintained a stranglehold on global insurance while losing nearly submarket related to ships.
The answer: better intelligence.
It is no coincidence that MI6 headquarters sits directly across the Thames from the @IMOHQ, the world’s maritime regulator & a short distance from Lloyd’s itself.
I have no proof of a direct pipeline, but it has long been speculated in the industry that intelligence flows from MI6 to Lloyd’s.
Having the best intel in the world would be the single greatest competitive advantage any insurer could possess: the ability to price risk that competitors can only guess at.
Here’s the problem: the majority of MI6’s intel doesn’t come from its own agents. It comes from Five Eyes the alliance comprising the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
And within 5Eyes, the dominant partner is obvious. The CIA, NSA, NRO, etc generate the lion’s share of intel.
So if Lloyd’s pricing advantage flows from MI6, and MI6’s best intelligence flows from the US… what happens when that data pipeline gets throttled?
All indications are that @Keir_Starmer was blindsided by the size and scope of the US/Israel strikes on Iran this weekend. That alone tells you something about the current state of transatlantic intelligence sharing.
And we know there has been serious anger in Washington over the UK’s decision to sell Diego Garcia, home to America’s most strategically important base in the Indian Ocean, to Mauritius.
It is not a huge leap to conclude that the submarine cables linking Langley to London have gone dark, or at minimum have been significantly throttled.
What this means for UK national security is a question for the Brits. But what it means for EVERY company globally that’s insured through the London market has massive implications for the entire financial system.
Because most large insurers worldwide don’t do independent intelligence work. They index off Lloyd’s rates.
If you’re insuring a skyscraper in Tokyo, a semiconductor fab in Taiwan, or a port in Argentina you get a Lloyd’s quote, then shop that price around.
Other insurers see Lloyd’s number and assume the diligence was done. They price accordingly.
This means if London is suddenly flying blind it’s not just Lloyd’s policyholders at risk. It’s the entire global reinsurance chain.
The cancellation of war risk coverage on ships isn’t the crisis. It’s the canary.
If this hypothesis is correct, we could be looking at a systemic repricing event across global insurance markets…. the kind of cascading uncertainty that defined 2008 and COVID.
Watch Lloyd’s. Watch reinsurance spreads. What Five Eyes. That’s where this story, and possibly Wall Street, breaks.
CC @BillAckman
When you reach a certain stage in your career, whatever directive your boss(es) dish out, you simply say “Yes, sir” and move to execution, even if its impossible or doesn’t make sense.
The objective is to demonstrate loyalty, discipline, compliance, and effort.
Then you return with the results of the effort you put in. The result should be an alternative solution to the directive, along with the reasons why the original directive was not implementable.
Boss: I need this report in the next 3 days.
Me: Okay sir.
After 3 days of grinding...
Me: Sir, please find the draft report with section 1, 2 and 3 completed. We are working to complete the section 4 and 5 in the next 2 days. We encountered delay in getting the data from the client.
Boss: Okay, good.
Even if the boss complain of non-delivery on time, it is a better approach than outrightly responding that 3 days is not enough to provide the report.
Action>>>complain.
> Kid gets baited into flexing his wallets on Telegram
> Gets recorded, recordings leaked
> Turns out those wallets are linked to $40M stolen from the US govt
> And his dad's company has a contract with the US govt to handle liquidation of seized crypto assets
Absolute insanity lol, just wait until mainstream news outlets gets their hands on this
Might end up being the crypto story of the year
And we're only in January
When I saw the 10k laptop drive, my thoughts were how would they manage the handout.What qualify you for a laptop. How would the use of the laptop be monitored,and curbing the risk of unintended use. It's nice to have initiative,but I doubt it would result in the desired outcome
Something has been buzzing around my brain. Is it cheaper to buy 10k laptops for young people whom you can't fully track for productive usage, or set up centers where many more can use shared desktop computers, similar to cybercafes of the early days? Coworking in the real sense.
Something has been buzzing around my brain. Is it cheaper to buy 10k laptops for young people whom you can't fully track for productive usage, or set up centers where many more can use shared desktop computers, similar to cybercafes of the early days? Coworking in the real sense.
Dear @POTUS,
We don’t want you to come ‘guns a blazing’.
What you can do for us is revoke the visas/residency of all Nigerian politicians and their families.
They have stolen our commonwealth and enriched your economy with it.
First step — revoke their visas.
Every tech role starts as the hero until reality sets in.
DevOps Engineer: “I’ll automate everything. Infrastructure is simple.”
Reality: Distributed systems don’t care. They’ll teach humility at 3 AM.
Cloud Engineer: “More instances. Auto-scaling solves it.”
Reality: Then comes the $47,000 AWS bill. “Cloud-native” suddenly means “we need FinOps.”
Systems Engineer: “I built the perfect setup.”
Reality: They leave for vacation. No one understands their system. Production collapses.
SRE: “Nothing surprises me anymore.”
Reality: True and exhaustion proves it.
What no one tells you:
•The best DevOps engineer knows when to ask for help.
•The smart Cloud engineer learns cost beats speed.
•The seasoned Systems engineer documents relentlessly.
•The wise SRE knows some issues can wait until morning.
We begin thinking we’re lone superheroes.
We end realizing we’re humans who depend on each other.
The real skill isn’t being the smartest person in the room it’s building systems simple enough for everyone to maintain.
Every tech role starts as the hero until reality sets in.
DevOps Engineer: “I’ll automate everything. Infrastructure is simple.”
Reality: Distributed systems don’t care. They’ll teach humility at 3 AM.
Cloud Engineer: “More instances. Auto-scaling solves it.”
Reality: Then comes the $47,000 AWS bill. “Cloud-native” suddenly means “we need FinOps.”
Systems Engineer: “I built the perfect setup.”
Reality: They leave for vacation. No one understands their system. Production collapses.
SRE: “Nothing surprises me anymore.”
Reality: True and exhaustion proves it.
What no one tells you:
•The best DevOps engineer knows when to ask for help.
•The smart Cloud engineer learns cost beats speed.
•The seasoned Systems engineer documents relentlessly.
•The wise SRE knows some issues can wait until morning.
We begin thinking we’re lone superheroes.
We end realizing we’re humans who depend on each other.
The real skill isn’t being the smartest person in the room it’s building systems simple enough for everyone to maintain.
To be honest, I think the problem comes from the fact that we Nigerians don’t dress for the kind of weather we have. We live in a tropical country, and we should be wearing shorts, sleeveless tops, adire and linen. But instead, we wear suits and jeans in 30 degree heat. Sweat gets trapped, and bacteria feed on it.
The average Nigerian doesn’t always have a proper bath, and when we do, we often use hard or untreated water that can’t even wash oil or sweat off properly.
Most people still wash clothes by hand, and because we eat a lot of spicy food, palm oil and instant noodles with artificial seasoning, the sweat smells even stronger. Deodorant was never common for us, and many still see it as extra, not a daily need like soap or moisturiser.
I’ve made a short film.
Look at the things around you: doors, bins, staircases, furniture, railings, doorhandles, windows.
Do you like how they look, or not?
Modern design has become boring, but it doesn’t have to be this way.
The word “beautiful” is overused. We don’t need “beautiful” lamps, bus stops, and water fountains – we just need lamps, bus stops, and water fountains that are interesting, that actually mean something.
Or, at the very least, not boring.
Because the aesthetics of architecture and urban design aren’t just a bonus; they totally change how we think, feel, and behave.
Boring environments make us more stressed and less productive; they erode our sense of community; they make us sadder, less trusting, and lonelier.
A boring world is one where we spend even more time online and where our addictions are even harder to battle.
The Problem
There is global, widespread dissatisfaction with how the world looks. In this film, and the series it will lead to, we want to investigate that feeling and give it a voice.
The point isn’t that we should return to the past or get rid of modernism. It’s about learning from the past in order to improve the present, and about giving the public what they very clearly want, which isn’t the eradication of modernism but the co-existence of modernism AND traditionalism.
Just look where tourists go, where they take their photos, and that tells you everything you need to know about what most people find interesting or beautiful.
And look at where people go on holiday. It’s always to cities filled with old architecture and design, with churches and mosques and palaces, with charming little alleyways and stone staircases and wrought-iron railings.
Of the world’s fifty most visited buildings, only four were made in the 20th century, and they’re all museums or memorials.
There’s a reason why posts about this go viral online all the time. Regardless of why the change happened, it is clearly the case that we no longer make things how we used to.
People are rightly confused by the fact that old lamp posts (to take the example we focus on in the film) are usually so pretty, while modern ones are usually so boring.
Some people say this is just an example of survivorship bias… and they’re mostly correct. But that’s the whole point!
Saying old buildings are usually prettier than modern buildings is not to say that architecture used to be better, or that the past was better.
It is simply to say that certain kinds of buildings, because they have been preserved, are good examples of what people like most.
In which case... shouldn't we try to design at least some buildings in a way that we know people like?
A Unifying Cause
Everybody, from all sides of the political spectrum and all backgrounds, stands to benefit from a world that is designed more thoughtfully and imaginatively. The world could be such a colourful, meaningful, and thrilling place!
So this isn’t about left versus right or conservatism versus progressivism; it’s about making our world a more interesting and meaningful place to live in. This should be a unifying cause, because everybody loses out when our homes and cities are badly designed.
I want this film to unite people who think they’re on opposite sides, and to create a consensus that we need to change our approach to how we design our buildings and the objects – benches, bus stops, bins, lamp posts, aircon units – that fill our cities.
The Importance of Details
We are incredibly rich and have a sprawling choice of shows to stream, phones to buy, or shoes to wear… but everything feels more and more generic all the time.
If you want to understand a society, don’t listen to what it says about itself – look at what it creates. You can learn everything about the Victorians – the good and the bad – just by looking at their lamp posts.
And what do the ordinary details of the modern world say about us?
That we are technologically advanced, very efficient… and care more about making money, about making things as quickly and cheaply as possible, than making our world an enjoyable place to actually live in.
It’s important to learn about why and how things have changed, but that’s for another time. The first step is establishing that the public aren’t happy with modern architecture and design, and that something needs to be done.
But what we need isn’t a total revival of so-called ‘traditionalism’; the truth is that traditionalism and modernism can (and should) co-exist.
The trouble right now is that we only have one, and that people are tired of it.
The Power of Noticing
But this film (and the series it will, all being well, lead to) is about more than the specific argument it presents. Above all it’s about a way of seeing the world around us, a way of noticing and thinking.
“How you do anything is how you do everything.” That is probably true, and it also applies to whole societies, not just individuals; a single doorbell implies everything else about the whole socio-economic and political system that gave rise to its creation.
And, beyond being merely “useful”, the ability to notice details makes the world a richer place to live in, and life a richer thing to lead. This is what the film is about, more than anything: the power and joy of noticing.
A Bigger Project
This short film is just the beginning. We want to make a full series about the history of art and architecture, both for their own sake and also to see what we can learn about life in the twenty-first century and how to improve it. To keep updated you can join our email list over at our website, linked in the reply below.
Final Words
You can watch the film here on X, or over on YouTube, also linked in the reply below.
So… this is where the dream begins, the dream of a new series and the dream of a more charming, more interesting, more meaningful modern world.
Spread the word.
That ‘gift to dying grandma’ tax hack going viral?
The IRS already won this fight.
Smaldino v. Commissioner ended with penalties and interest.
Here’s what LinkedIn isn’t telling you about the step transaction doctrine:
@DrJoeAbah@BTOofficial In as much as @BTOofficial is doing a lot of great things. The NIS App needs attention.
Still buggy and no help line or how to raise tickets if issues are encountered.
Lifelong friendships are actually simple:
be the better friend, be thoughtful, be supportive, reach out to others, do it because you genuinely care;
and as the years pass, some bonds will fade away, usually the ones with people who never really cared much, that’s fine, respect yourself and let go;
one day, you will look back, and find yourself surrounded by the very family and friends that you deserve, people who will make you feel grateful that you got to share together many meaningful chapters, people who will be a reflection of who you were as a person.
Lifelong friendships are actually simple:
be the better friend, be thoughtful, be supportive, reach out to others, do it because you genuinely care;
and as the years pass, some bonds will fade away, usually the ones with people who never really cared much, that’s fine, respect yourself and let go;
one day, you will look back, and find yourself surrounded by the very family and friends that you deserve, people who will make you feel grateful that you got to share together many meaningful chapters, people who will be a reflection of who you were as a person.