Be honest — have we seen capitulation in Bitcoin during this bear market?”
No, according to most serious signals, we have not (yet) seen a real, classic capitulation in Bitcoin during this bear market.
What is real capitulation?
Classic capitulation is the moment when the last weak hands dump en masse:
• Extreme volume on the dumps
• Panic-selling lasting multiple days or weeks
• Funding rates going deeply negative
• Weekly RSI reaching historically oversold levels
• “Everyone is liquidated” + max pain + widespread despair on social media
• Often followed by a sharp V-shaped recovery or a long accumulation zone
We saw this, for example:
• March 2020 (COVID crash)
• November 2022 (FTX collapse)
• And to a lesser extent in June–July 2022
What have we seen so far (August 2026)?
We have experienced sharp corrections and periods of heavy pain, but most on-chain and market-structure signals still do not point to a full wash-out:
• No multi-week panic dump with historical volume like in 2022
• Long-term holders are still selling relatively little (they are accumulating or holding on)
• Funding rates and open interest have turned negative from time to time, but not at a structural “everything is empty” level
• Fear is present, but the “I’m dumping everything and never touching crypto again” phase is not yet widespread
• Price action has been more of a “grind lower + relief rallies” than a pure capitulation candle
In short: we have felt pain and despair, but we have not yet seen a classic, final capitulation bottom.
Honest assessment
Looking at the history of Bitcoin cycles, this bear market still feels more like a prolonged, grinding correction than a completed capitulation. Many analysts (both on-chain and technical) continue to say that the real “final flush” has either already occurred in a milder form, or is still ahead of us if macro and liquidity conditions deteriorate further.
So: not really seen yet.
We are closer to “deep pain” than to “everything has already been flushed out.” #BTC
Be honest — have we seen capitulation in Bitcoin during this bear market?”
No, according to most serious signals, we have not (yet) seen a real, classic capitulation in Bitcoin during this bear market.
What is real capitulation?
Classic capitulation is the moment when the last weak hands dump en masse:
• Extreme volume on the dumps
• Panic-selling lasting multiple days or weeks
• Funding rates going deeply negative
• Weekly RSI reaching historically oversold levels
• “Everyone is liquidated” + max pain + widespread despair on social media
• Often followed by a sharp V-shaped recovery or a long accumulation zone
We saw this, for example:
• March 2020 (COVID crash)
• November 2022 (FTX collapse)
• And to a lesser extent in June–July 2022
What have we seen so far (August 2026)?
We have experienced sharp corrections and periods of heavy pain, but most on-chain and market-structure signals still do not point to a full wash-out:
• No multi-week panic dump with historical volume like in 2022
• Long-term holders are still selling relatively little (they are accumulating or holding on)
• Funding rates and open interest have turned negative from time to time, but not at a structural “everything is empty” level
• Fear is present, but the “I’m dumping everything and never touching crypto again” phase is not yet widespread
• Price action has been more of a “grind lower + relief rallies” than a pure capitulation candle
In short: we have felt pain and despair, but we have not yet seen a classic, final capitulation bottom.
Honest assessment
Looking at the history of Bitcoin cycles, this bear market still feels more like a prolonged, grinding correction than a completed capitulation. Many analysts (both on-chain and technical) continue to say that the real “final flush” has either already occurred in a milder form, or is still ahead of us if macro and liquidity conditions deteriorate further.
So: not really seen yet.
We are closer to “deep pain” than to “everything has already been flushed out.” #BTC
Be honest — have we seen capitulation in Bitcoin during this bear market?”
No, according to most serious signals, we have not (yet) seen a real, classic capitulation in Bitcoin during this bear market.
What is real capitulation?
Classic capitulation is the moment when the last weak hands dump en masse:
• Extreme volume on the dumps
• Panic-selling lasting multiple days or weeks
• Funding rates going deeply negative
• Weekly RSI reaching historically oversold levels
• “Everyone is liquidated” + max pain + widespread despair on social media
• Often followed by a sharp V-shaped recovery or a long accumulation zone
We saw this, for example:
• March 2020 (COVID crash)
• November 2022 (FTX collapse)
• And to a lesser extent in June–July 2022
What have we seen so far (August 2026)?
We have experienced sharp corrections and periods of heavy pain, but most on-chain and market-structure signals still do not point to a full wash-out:
• No multi-week panic dump with historical volume like in 2022
• Long-term holders are still selling relatively little (they are accumulating or holding on)
• Funding rates and open interest have turned negative from time to time, but not at a structural “everything is empty” level
• Fear is present, but the “I’m dumping everything and never touching crypto again” phase is not yet widespread
• Price action has been more of a “grind lower + relief rallies” than a pure capitulation candle
In short: we have felt pain and despair, but we have not yet seen a classic, final capitulation bottom.
Honest assessment
Looking at the history of Bitcoin cycles, this bear market still feels more like a prolonged, grinding correction than a completed capitulation. Many analysts (both on-chain and technical) continue to say that the real “final flush” has either already occurred in a milder form, or is still ahead of us if macro and liquidity conditions deteriorate further.
So: not really seen yet.
We are closer to “deep pain” than to “everything has already been flushed out.” #BTC
Be honest — have we seen capitulation in Bitcoin during this bear market?”
No, according to most serious signals, we have not (yet) seen a real, classic capitulation in Bitcoin during this bear market.
What is real capitulation?
Classic capitulation is the moment when the last weak hands dump en masse:
• Extreme volume on the dumps
• Panic-selling lasting multiple days or weeks
• Funding rates going deeply negative
• Weekly RSI reaching historically oversold levels
• “Everyone is liquidated” + max pain + widespread despair on social media
• Often followed by a sharp V-shaped recovery or a long accumulation zone
We saw this, for example:
• March 2020 (COVID crash)
• November 2022 (FTX collapse)
• And to a lesser extent in June–July 2022
What have we seen so far (August 2026)?
We have experienced sharp corrections and periods of heavy pain, but most on-chain and market-structure signals still do not point to a full wash-out:
• No multi-week panic dump with historical volume like in 2022
• Long-term holders are still selling relatively little (they are accumulating or holding on)
• Funding rates and open interest have turned negative from time to time, but not at a structural “everything is empty” level
• Fear is present, but the “I’m dumping everything and never touching crypto again” phase is not yet widespread
• Price action has been more of a “grind lower + relief rallies” than a pure capitulation candle
In short: we have felt pain and despair, but we have not yet seen a classic, final capitulation bottom.
Honest assessment
Looking at the history of Bitcoin cycles, this bear market still feels more like a prolonged, grinding correction than a completed capitulation. Many analysts (both on-chain and technical) continue to say that the real “final flush” has either already occurred in a milder form, or is still ahead of us if macro and liquidity conditions deteriorate further.
So: not really seen yet.
We are closer to “deep pain” than to “everything has already been flushed out.” #BTC
Be honest — have we seen capitulation in Bitcoin during this bear market?”
No, according to most serious signals, we have not (yet) seen a real, classic capitulation in Bitcoin during this bear market.
What is real capitulation?
Classic capitulation is the moment when the last weak hands dump en masse:
• Extreme volume on the dumps
• Panic-selling lasting multiple days or weeks
• Funding rates going deeply negative
• Weekly RSI reaching historically oversold levels
• “Everyone is liquidated” + max pain + widespread despair on social media
• Often followed by a sharp V-shaped recovery or a long accumulation zone
We saw this, for example:
• March 2020 (COVID crash)
• November 2022 (FTX collapse)
• And to a lesser extent in June–July 2022
What have we seen so far (August 2026)?
We have experienced sharp corrections and periods of heavy pain, but most on-chain and market-structure signals still do not point to a full wash-out:
• No multi-week panic dump with historical volume like in 2022
• Long-term holders are still selling relatively little (they are accumulating or holding on)
• Funding rates and open interest have turned negative from time to time, but not at a structural “everything is empty” level
• Fear is present, but the “I’m dumping everything and never touching crypto again” phase is not yet widespread
• Price action has been more of a “grind lower + relief rallies” than a pure capitulation candle
In short: we have felt pain and despair, but we have not yet seen a classic, final capitulation bottom.
Honest assessment
Looking at the history of Bitcoin cycles, this bear market still feels more like a prolonged, grinding correction than a completed capitulation. Many analysts (both on-chain and technical) continue to say that the real “final flush” has either already occurred in a milder form, or is still ahead of us if macro and liquidity conditions deteriorate further.
So: not really seen yet.
We are closer to “deep pain” than to “everything has already been flushed out.” #BTC
US JOBLESS CLAIMS -1K TO 215K IN JUN-27 WK; SURVEY 220K
US JUN-20 WEEK CONTINUING CLAIMS +2K TO 1,814,000
US JUN-20 WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS REVISED TO 216K
$BTC closed today right on this trendline connecting the 2022 and 2023 lows, above the monthly 50 SMA, and just 0.5% from the Q1 low.
With bullish divergences setting up on the daily and weekly timeframes, patient holders are filling our bags while the leverage pukes.