Outsider Projections

The only place on X focusing on the performance of outsider parties and elections. 📊

Twinned with @HVilday and Interviewer-Line.

[Interviewer-Line - Minor Party News @InterviewerLine]

Interviewer-Line and @OutsideProjectn’s H&SP by-election prediction:

🌹 LAB: 38.5 (-10.4)
🌍 GRN: 23.6 (+13.2)
🫵 YRP: 11.4 (-7.5)
🌳 CON: 8.2 (+1.0)
🔶 LDM: 6.3 (+0.5)
➡️ RFM: 5.5 (-0.6)
🔄 RBN: 3.8
🇪🇺 🟣 REU/VUK: 2.0
🗑️ BIN: 0.3
🎩 MRL: 0.2
☑️ OTH: 0.1 (-2.6)

Change w/ GE2024

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

@_francophobe @HVilday Our expressed purpose is to track and include outsider parties, hence Outsider Projections. If you wish for a simpler VI graph, might I recommend @electionmapsuk

[⭐️♦️🇪🇺 Harry V 🇪🇺 ♦️⭐️ @HVilday]

*lib dems surviving better, lol

[⭐️♦️🇪🇺 Harry V 🇪🇺 ♦️⭐️ @HVilday]

Everyone is talking about the Labour overtaking reform crossover, but one that hasn’t been mentioned is the greens surviving better than the greens, overtaking them!

Look at the most detailed VI graph here: https://t.co/DUqqZ6DzRq

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

And after all the votes are done it's confirmed we had the most accurate model, accurately predicting the first preference winner for every borough in GM!
Turns out taking outsiders into account also gets you greater accuracy!

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

And after all the votes are done it's confirmed we had the most accurate model, accurately predicting the first preference winner for every borough in GM!
Turns out taking outsiders into account also gets you greater accuracy!

[PollCheck @poll_checker]

Labour (Bev Craig) by borough
Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, 30 July 2026

FIRST PREFERENCES
Manchester: 54.0% (49,326)
Stockport: 50.2% (35,571)
Trafford: 50.0% (30,966)
Wigan: 47.0% (26,200)
Bury: 46.9% (18,837)
Salford: 46.8% (21,445)
Tameside: 41.8% (18,289)
Oldham: 41.6% (15,170)
Rochdale: 41.5% (15,927)
Bolton: 40.5% (19,718)

GM total: 47.1% (251,449)

SECOND ROUND (final)
Manchester: 82.5% (66,110)
Trafford: 74.0% (38,818)
Stockport: 71.2% (43,702)
Salford: 66.3% (26,839)
Bury: 63.1% (22,375)
Bolton: 57.7% (23,888)
Wigan: 57.3% (29,219)
Rochdale: 57.0% (18,951)
Tameside: 56.4% (21,868)
Oldham: 54.7% (17,755)

GM total: 66.3% (309,525)

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

the only place to track how our democracy may go!

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

the only place to track how our democracy may go!

[⭐️♦️🇪🇺 Harry V 🇪🇺 ♦️⭐️ @HVilday]

check out Interviewer-Line and @OutsideProjectn 's PR Referendum Nowcast! four maps, broken down by regions and nations, out now!

https://t.co/TOMKRw0JNK

[⭐️♦️🇪🇺 Harry V 🇪🇺 ♦️⭐️ @HVilday]

check out Interviewer-Line and @OutsideProjectn 's PR Referendum Nowcast! four maps, broken down by regions and nations, out now!

https://t.co/TOMKRw0JNK

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

@LetcalfeLark @HVilday If you wish to see our polling sources, we'd be happy to show them, bit I can assure you that nobody at OutsiderProjections or InterviewerLine can afford coke

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

The only tracker that allows you see the outsiders polling stats without rooting through the crosstabs!

[⭐️♦️🇪🇺 Harry V 🇪🇺 ♦️⭐️ @HVilday]

Check out Inteviewer-line and @OutsideProjectn 's VOTING INTENTION Tracker! utilising every aspect of polls, even the ones that break down other! the only place to track the performance of Your Party, the SDP< Workers' and more!

https://t.co/TjOWSig134

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

Check out our's and Interviewer-Line's Potential 2nd Referendum Nowcast! broken down to nations and regions!

https://t.co/42TXt4AZ3j

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

Check out our's and Interviewer-Line's Voting Intention Tracker! the only way to track Your Party, the Workers', SDP and more in the world!

https://t.co/FYIhpQKkRg

[⭐️♦️🇪🇺 Harry V 🇪🇺 ♦️⭐️ @HVilday]

Check out Inteviewer-line and @OutsideProjectn 's VOTING INTENTION Tracker! utilising every aspect of polls, even the ones that break down other! the only place to track the performance of Your Party, the SDP< Workers' and more!

https://t.co/TjOWSig134

[⭐️♦️🇪🇺 Harry V 🇪🇺 ♦️⭐️ @HVilday]

Check out Interviewer-Line and @OutsideProjectn 's Potential Brejoin Referendum NOWCAST! broken down into regions and nations!

https://t.co/uOZVhBsv28

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

https://t.co/ROaEQ9dD1T

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

Outsider Projections & Interviewer-Line Greater Manchester by-election NOWCAST:

LAB: 37.0%
RFM: 23.0%
GRN: 16.4%
CON: 10.5%
RES: 7.0%
LDM: 5.4%
IND: 0.7%

Second Round
LAB: 47.0%
RFM: 39.4%

Look at the borough results on our website, with a heatmap and map for both rounds.

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

Come see ours and Interviewer-Line's Greater Manchester by-election NOWCAST! the first and only of it's kind! link in replies :)

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

https://t.co/ROaEQ9dD1T

[Outsider Projections @OutsideProjectn]

Come see ours and Interviewer-Line's Greater Manchester by-election NOWCAST! the first and only of it's kind! link in replies :)

[⭐️♦️🇪🇺 Harry V 🇪🇺 ♦️⭐️ @HVilday]

Interviewer-Line has gone through a rebrand, an update and a MERGER with @Outsiderpolling !, read 2 new articles, look at our Greater Manchester by-election NOWCAST! (the first of it's kind) and take some time to admire our new logos! https://t.co/hwxmz6jMD5