Business Owner

Owning businesses, not stocks. Only long-term quality investing. Public and private markets.

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

"When Gavin talks, I listen"

Another great interview by @patrick_oshag and @GavinSBaker

Kudos for sharing that knowledge with wider public of investors. 🙏🙏🙏

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Gavin on why the hyperscalers are under-earning:

" I literally spoke to a company this morning who rented a cluster of several thousand Blackwells at somewhere in the mid $2 per GPU hour,  and this is one of the sexiest startups that people want to be in business with.

They're renting the exact same cluster, and they're hoping 7 months later to pay just under $4.

That's pretty crazy because a really gentle decline in prices would be bullish. Instead, we're up, depending on the starting point, 50 to 60% in six or seven months.

And there have been so many anecdotes like that. One of the inference clouds, I think it was Baseten, they went on a podcast and essentially said, "We are planning to pay 100% more for Blackwells when our contract expires.

And that just means that essentially all the hyperscalers are under-earning.

My main mission out here this week is: tell me something negative."

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

Link:

https://t.co/BC5uiDkoB0

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

#XTB

Listen closely to the latest interview of XTB CEO.

It looks like their earnings power is moving from 200mio PLN to 250-500mio PLN per quarter. XTB trades now at 11.5 P/E for 2026.

And next year it will grow again.

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

Let that sink in…

SP500 has derated lower, the room for growth is still there:

[Satya Nadella @satyanadella]

Some more detail on the ROIC Intelligence App I built yesterday and mentioned on today's earnings call.

I took the PDF that Brian Nowak at Morgan Stanley put together for Hyperscale ROIC this week and used Copilot code (coming in our new superapp) with a single prompt + skill (/drill-me) to create the plan, then used autopilot in auto to create the full app (with history, lookups, scenarios, what-ifs, etc). And /rubber-duck to test.

And the best part is that all the artifacts are in my enterprise environment. My app is in Copilot, my code is in GitHub Enterprise; all my data pipelines/lake/semantic models are in Fabric. And everything is under Agent 365 IT/Sec/FinOps control!

So this is not about Tokenmaxxing or vibe coding. Every step of the way the rails are engineered to create value, making everything a long-term reusable asset, with governance/security, and cost controls.

This is the full system to drive business value. Disclosures: This is all pulled from public sources, and for illustrative purposes only...not financial advice! :)

Here is the app and architecture...

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

Very good summary from Gavin @GavinSBaker

The fact that Alphabet grows more than 80% y/y the cloud business is exactly the return on capex made few quarters back!

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Market is overreacting to hyperscale credit spreads widening from my perspective. TL;DR Spot pricing for renting GPU compute materially above contracted rates implies hyperscalers are underearning while operating cash flow acceleration is an underestimated source of funds for AI capex.

The fact that spot prices for GPU rentals are at least 2x higher than contracted rates is the missing piece from the discussion about hyperscaler credit, which is the only fundamental factor behind this selloff. Multiple private companies are planning on spending at least 2x more per GPU for compute as contracts roll-off and some have spoken about this publicly.

As contracts roll-off, hyperscale growth rates are going to continue to accelerate as their installed bases of compute reprice higher. Hyperscale operating cash flow growth using a mix of estimates and actuals is modeled to accelerate from 31% in the first quarter of 2026 to 50% in the second quarter. This acceleration should continue for the rest of the year and this is not in estimates which incorrectly model a deceleration in the third quarter from my perspective.

Some math. Consensus estimates are probably for 25-35 gigawatts added by hyperscale and neoclouds in CY28 (using a range as standing up datacenters is hard and a lot of the neos plus labs are still private).  At 60b per gigawatt, that is 1.5 to 2.2 trillion in capex. Consensus estimates for hyperscale/neo operating cash flow is 1.3 to 1.4 trillion. I think this gets revised up materially as contracts reprice and growth accelerates so the 100b to 700b that would hypothetically need to be plugged by debt goes away. And their credit profiles materially improve. Not to mention the said 100b to 700b would be less than 1 turn of incremental leverage on consensus EBITDA estimates. And obviously the Nvidia and Broadcom “credit wrappers” help improve creditworthiness as well given their FCF profiles.

OpenAI, Cursor/Grok and the various Open Source inference clouds have accelerated materially over the last two months per public data and Anthropic continues to grow insanely fast while likely generating FCF. This - along with the fact that spot prices for GPU rentals are so far ahead of contract - are the missing pieces from the BofA chart on hyperscale FCF vs. semiconductor FCF.

Hyperscalers are underearning and anyone who signed a contract for GPU compute in 2024 and 2025 is overearning. Operating cash flow will be enough to fund capex but as contracts reprice and cloud growth continues to accelerate then spreads likely come in as well. 

Would also note that CDS markets are easy to manipulate - was a huge feature of the GFC - short the stock and then buy the CDS. So I would not put attach much signal to CDS.

Net, net I’m not that concerned about the widening spreads in hyperscale credit. The real risk is that bringing power online and energizing all these GPUs is really hard but we are getting better at this every day.

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

@TradexWhisperer Secondly, the ability to connect distant facts is a property of the attention mechanism and model quality, not of the number of gigabytes. Memory lets you put something into context — it doesn't make the model understand it.

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

@TradexWhisperer Not exactly. memory capacity is not ability to spot connections. The fact that data is in the context doesn't mean the model can use it. The "lost in the middle" phenomenon is well documented: models systematically lose information placed in the middle of a long context.

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

Dla tych co mysla co dalej z #Micron

Większa konfiguracja miażdży szybszą: pojawiło się 38-krotne spowolnienie, gdy dane przekroczyły dostępny RAM i zaczęły się zrzucać na SSD. Ogólnie podwojenie pojemności DRAM eliminuje te zrzuty na dysk i daje 2–3x wyższą przepustowość.

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

“38x slowdown once shuffle data exceeds available DRAM and spills to SSD.”

From a joint Micron/Meta white paper.

The DRAM bottleneck almost certainly lasts the longest.

OP from @jukan05

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

Great summary of recent market chatter by @SemiAnalysis_ regarding aggressive sell-off of Neoclouds and debates of “overcapacity” coming back.

„Let’s set the record straight – we believe that both takes are erroneous (…). Capex in 2027 will be shockingly high.”

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

@JJTomaszewski No wlasnie o to chodzi Jurek. Ich equity, przez to ze jest wycenione wysoko, jest teraz tansze w emisji niz emisja dlugu. Wspanialy ruch ze strony Google👏🔥

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

@JasonL_Capital Wheel

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

@JasonL_Capital Hey @JasonL_Capital why you buy deep in the money calls? Instead of atm strike to make it cheaper?

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

#RainbowTours

A Polish based tour operator with above 20% revenue run rate growth and trading at 6.4 P/E ratio.

Even with story of margin normalization materializing, this is still priced at a very good margin of safety.

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

The gift keeps giving:

https://t.co/OJ021DCk8z

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

#BIP trades now with 6.5% dividend yield and Price/FFO below 10.0.

Big misprice by market who is focused now on the short term movements in yields.

https://t.co/LMq88aMZh6

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

#BIP trades now with 6.5% dividend yield and Price/FFO below 10.0.

Big misprice by market who is focused now on the short term movements in yields.

https://t.co/LMq88aMZh6

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

Idea for quality company?

Take a look at LPP $LPP

Design and distributes clothing, present in almost entire CEE, expanding now in Europe.

Planning to double stores in 2-3 years.

High ROIC business, with negative working capital.

Like post if you need more info on the moat!

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

@techfund1 Me too, it is just so rare that Mr Market creates those opportunities. Last time it was 2022. And from earnings call it seems they just getting more and more traction with their Value Added Services! The path of growth is very clear.

[Robert Ditrych @rditrych]

🚨 #Brand24 #wezwanie

W wyniku wezwania Prowly nabyło ok. 313 tys. akcji z 944 tys. akcji będących przedmiotem wezwania.

Odpowiedź akcjonariatu B24 jest jednoznaczna.
Zaproponowana cena w wezwaniu (47 PLN/akcja) była zbyt niska. 🤷‍♂️

Sprawa dalszej obecności Brand24 na giełdowym rynku pozostaje otwarta. Wśród rozproszonego akcjonariatu pozostaje 28% wszystkich akcji.

#PorozumienieB24 akcjonariuszy Brand24 wciąż zwiększa swój udział w Spółce. Zapraszam do kontaktu i do dołączenia do Porozumienia. Razem możemy więcej!

Dziękuję wszystkim za zaangażowanie i wsparcie w temacie!🙌

[Business Owner @OwningBusiness]

#Brand24

[Robert Ditrych @rditrych]

#PorozumienieB24 Akcjonariuszy #Brand24 melduje się z udziałem >10% w głosach i kapitale spółki.

Podziękowanie za niesamowite zaangażowanie akcjonariatu mniejszości! Widać determinację indywidualnych inwestorów.

Już 67 akcjonariuszy jest częścią Porozumienia.
Wciąż można do nas dołączyć i wesprzeć inicjatywę.
Zapraszam do kontaktu!

Na ten moment szczególne podziękowania:
@Greg79706989 (za ogrom pracy!) @ARedziniak @zgred80 @so_piotr @PaweRoj_ @Osk87109 @forum_kredytowe @sg4t7vy5gp @maciek9180 @adriankoczy @BartoszMalita @Pilosz_ @jarekbanacki @korniszon691 @DnaRynkow @RChodkowski @M_Wietrzny @mmmaslov @AnalitykF i wielu innych! 🙌 Dziękuję!