ProcessOverResults FF

Fantasy Football news, notes, insights, and analysis prioritizing #ProcessOverResults 2025 Draft Guide link 👇🏻

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

If you want to see my substack article explaining in more detail, you can find it here: https://t.co/LMSKer9dCD

If you want to see my rankings, you can find them here: https://t.co/SppdW7rCOJ

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

Every OVERALL QB1 since 2015 has come from a top 11 team in season long implied points using weekly closing lines.

8 of 11 years, the QB1 has come from a top 5 implied total team.

Teams projected to score more, do.

In 2025, Josh Allen was the QB1 and the Bills were #2 in implied totals.

Data via @Stathead

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

data via @FantasyPtsData

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

Greg Roman and Mike McDaniel are two different coaches and Tyreek Hill and Ladd McConkey two different players.

But it looks like the guy who most closely resembles the Tyreek Hill role in Mike McDaniel's offense is Ladd McConkey.

2025 play action:
McConkey
aDOT: 10.4
% of routes out wide: 58%
% of routes from slot: 39.3%
47.6 fantasy points (107.1 in 2024)

Quentin Johnston
aDOT: 13
% of routes out wide: 88.4%
% of routes from slot: 11.6%
52.5 fantasy points (64.1 in 2024)

2023 PA
Tyreek
aDOT: 11.6
% of routes out wide: 65.6%
% of routes from slot: 31.8%
155.2 fantasy points

Jaylen Waddle
aDOT: 13.8
% of routes out wide: 84.6%
% of routes from slot: 13.7%
78.7 fantasy points

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

2022 PA
Tyreek
aDOT: 8.3
% of routes out wide: 61.9%
% of routes from slot: 36.1%
134.5 fantasy points

Jaylen Waddle
aDOT: 9.3
% of routes out wide: 88.7%
% of routes from slot: 11.3%
101.3 fantasy points

Injuries and age slightly affected their numbers in 2024-25 but their roles generally stayed the same. Both QJ and Ladd could flourish in their new offense, but if I had to bet on one, it would probably be McConkey.

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba fantasy points off play action

2024 - 31.2 (16 rec, 138 yds, 0 TDs) #60 overall
2025 - 153.8 (41 rec, 768yds, 2 TDs) #1 overall

Every PPR #1 overall WR has been top 5 in this category since 2021

2021 - Cooper Kupp: #1 points off play action
2022 - Justin Jefferson: #5
2023 - CeeDee Lamb: #4
2024 - Ja'Marr Chase: #1
2025 - Puka Nacua: #2

[Ryan Heath @RyanJ_Heath]

Imagine writing these two paragraphs about Jaxon Smith-Njigba last July...

And then brain-farting and touting Tory Horton instead.

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

@JustinMacmahan Wayne Gallman Jr.

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

Do I think Drake London can finish as the OVERALL WR1?

No. And I'm not buying into hype train narratives about it. Taking a testable/falsifiable stance is more helpful than a vague/unfalsifiable statement about what could happen. ATL is projected to score the 25th most points this season. There won't be enough yards gained and TDs scored.

Since 2019, teams in the bottom 12 in projected points have never produced the OVERALL WR1. And only about 2 WRs per year from these teams finish as a WR1. He's fighting an extreme uphill battle.

Things can change. New HC Kevin Stefanski and OC Tommy Rees could propel this team to new heights, but that's gonna be tough sledding. For each of the past 2 seasons, 8/12 = 66.67% teams in the bottom 12 in preseason lookahead lines (like we have now) have finished the season in the bottom 12. The environment is not conducive to that type of season.

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

Christian McCaffrey has 4 of the top 15 RB reception seasons of all time.

He had over 100 receptions 3 times in his 9 year career. 85 receptions, 80, and 67 in his other 3 healthy seasons.

In 6/9 seasons, he's played 16 games or more. And in his 67 catch season, he finished as the Overall RB1.

On film, he did look like he'd lost some speed but as we get closer to fantasy draft season, it's going to be pretty difficult to project who the #1 overall RB will be.

That's what makes fantasy football so great, though!

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

What does breakout mean? How is it testable? Falsifiable?

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

AND from week 8 on, Colston Loveland was the overall TE2 and TE6 in PPG.

CHI was projected to score 25 or more points three times last season. In those games, Loveland scored 29.8, 9.5, and 25.10 points.

They are projected to do that 7 times in 2026 and are 10th overall in projected points.

Here's how he finished the season:
Week 17 - 10 tgts, 6 red, 94 yds, 1 TD = 21.4
Week 18 - 13 tgts, 10 rec, 91 yds, 1 TD = 25.1
Wildcard - 15 tgts, 8 rec, 137 yds = 23.7
Divisional - 10 tgts, 4 rec, 56 yds = 9.6

[Hayden Winks @HaydenWinks]

Why does Luther Burden get drafted ahead of Colston Loveland on Underdog?

Loveland first reached 80% snaps in Week 8. From that point on, he was the highest scoring Bear on the most usage. He was also the player drafted 10th overall by this staff.

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

If someone is a “bounce back candidate” or a “smash” at their position, what does that really mean? What metrics or point threshold do they have to cross to be a bounce back guy or smash next season?

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

Drake London dark horse OVERALL WR1 talk from 2025.

Since 2019 (where I arbitrarily decided to start from), every single overall WR1 came from a Top 5 implied total team.

They were 22nd before the season began and finished 19th. London’s 17 game pace would’ve put him at WR6 (16.825 * 17 games = 286.02).

Great season but not the WR1. Another reason why using probabilities can help us not irresponsibly chase narratives and help balance expectations.

I know in past years, I would have wildly chased hype train narratives and my roster builds would suffer. My drafts had some crazy reaches falling in love with what COULD happen.

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

Currently ATL ranks 22 of 32 teams in projected total points.

A lot can change from now until the end of the season but things don't look great. I guess that's the definition of a dark horse.

11/72 WR1s have come from bottom 12 projected scoring teams in the last 6 years.

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

Said this in week 2 of last year. BAL ended up #5 in implied totals and Zay Flowers ended the year as the overall WR7.

DAL ended at #4 and CeeDee Lamb missed 4 games and didn't really play week 18. George Pickens ended as the WR5 and from week 7 on when both were healthy, Pickens was the WR7 and Lamb the WR8.

Jonathan Taylor was the overall RB1 until week 10. Daniel Jones got hurt in week 14. AND JT didn't touch the ball once in the 4Q in weeks 1 and 5 and only touched it once in week 8 in the 4th.

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

If BAL and DAL keep producing top 5 implied point totals, Zay Flowers likely finishes the year as a WR1 and CeeDee Lamb has a chance to be the OVERALL WR1.

If IND sneaks into the top 10, Jonathan Taylor likely is the OVERALL RB1. Bijan Robinson has a chance as well.

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

This is how I approach weekly and season long projections.

Go into each week/season knowing variance is prevalent. That mindset allows us to not get too high/low on players. Good processes helps us live with the results.

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

In Week 5, using our probabilities, we expected 3.48 WRs out of our top 5 be WR1s.

Sum the probabilities then divide by 1 = 3.48

3 WRs ended as a WR1:
Puka Nacua
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Justin Jefferson

This is exactly the variance we are trying to capture and plan around weekly

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

And if you are looking for the overall WR1, since 2019, that has come from a top 5 projected scoring team

1. LAR - Puka Nacua
2. BUF - 🤷🏻‍♂️
3. DET - Amon-Ra St. Brown
4. CIN - Ja’Marr Chase
5. BAL - Zay Flowers

6. DAL - CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens

DAL finished 4th in 2025

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

18% of all WR1’s since 2019 have come from bottom 12 projected scoring teams. That’s ONLY about 2 per season.

Current WRs in that situation 👇🏻

Jaylen Waddle
Malik Nabers
Chris Olave
DK Metcalf
Michael Pittman
Drake London
Tetairoa McMillan
Garrett Wilson
Marvin Harrison Jr
Michael Wilson

[ProcessOverResults FF @PRFFBall]

18% of all WR1’s since 2019 have come from bottom 12 projected scoring teams. That’s ONLY about 2 per season.

Current WRs in that situation 👇🏻

Jaylen Waddle
Malik Nabers
Chris Olave
DK Metcalf
Michael Pittman
Drake London
Tetairoa McMillan
Garrett Wilson
Marvin Harrison Jr
Michael Wilson