His money manager told him he was "good to go" for retirement at 55.
I ran the numbers.
63% probability of success—based on the advisor's plan.
He went pale.
50 years old. $400K income. $2 million saved. Wants to retire at 55.
His previous advisor did a one-time plan, handed him a portfolio, and called it financial planning.
Never ran a Monte Carlo. Never stress tested anything. Just "you're fine, trust me."
Monte Carlo simulations test thousands of possible futures—market crashes, inflation spikes, bad timing.
The real world stuff that kills retirements.
His result: 63% probability of success.
Translation: 37% chance he's broke by 75.
"Wait—so I'm flipping a coin with my entire retirement?"
Yep.
Would you get on a plane with a 63% chance of landing?
Here's what nobody told him:
In those failed scenarios, he runs out of money by 72. Not 85. Seventy-two.
Because money managers manage money. They don't engineer outcomes.
We rebuilt everything:
→ Strategic distributions coordinated with Social Security timing
→ Multi-year tax planning with Roth conversions
→ Reduced investment fees
→ Risk management protecting against sequence of returns
→ Withdrawal sequencing slashing lifetime taxes
New result: 86% probability of success.
Better yet—in the WORST 10% of scenarios, he still has $800K at 85.
Old plan? Broke by 72.
The difference between 63% and 86% isn't 23 percentage points.
It's the difference between hoping and engineering.
You retire once. There's no practice round.
This is why asset management isn't planning. And why DIYers call us in their 70s when it's too late to fix.
@rationalaussie they imported two races of people at perpetual war with each other, put them in close proximity to one another and said “good luck i guess idk 🤷♂️”
Don’t let anyone fool you: $1,000,000 is life-changing money for 90% of the world’s population.
The “$1M is nothing” crowd is made up of under-achievers living in their parent’s basement who will never have anywhere near a mil.