Vikash Agarwal

Co-Founder Pareto Capital, Angel Investor, Capital Markets, Love travelling, Poker and family.

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

The Verdict:
2026 won’t be decided by "booth management" of the dead and migrated. It will be decided by the living.

Without the ghosts, the TMC is forced into a fair fight for the first time in 15 years. Is this the end of an era? The math says yes.

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

Is the "TMC Era" in West Bengal facing a mathematical dead end? 📉

The 2026 Special Intensive Revision (SIR) has just shrunk the voter list by nearly 80 LAKH names. This isn't just a cleanup—it’s a structural reset that changes everything.

A thread on the "6.8 Crore Correction." 🧵 #WestBengal #Election2026 #BengalPolitics @WellSaidGuru @SuvenduWB @amitmalviya

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

The Math of the "Death Zone":
Even with a conservative 2% anti-incumbency swing:
✅ SIR Correction: -7.91%
✅ 2% Swing: -2.00%
🚀 **Final Projection: 38.04%**

History Lesson: 38% is exactly where the Left Front sat in 2011 when the regime collapsed. 📉

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

*Perception Theory**. 🧠

Politics is about momentum. For a decade, the TMC appeared invincible. But with the "Ghost Safety Net" gone, that aura has vanished.

When people perceive the machinery is broken, the "Hawa" shifts. Anti-incumbency moves from a simmer to a boil.

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

Where did those "Ghost Votes" go? 🗳️

Our analysis applies a 75% Attribution Rule. If 75% of those 6.3M ineligible entries were utilized by the incumbent's machinery, the TMC starts 2026 with a **4.77 Million vote deficit.**

This drops their structural base from 47.95% to **40.04%** instantly.

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

The Smoking Gun: The "90% Effective Turnout" Proof. 🕵️‍♂️

In 2021, 6.04 Cr votes were cast. But the SIR found 63.66 Lakh entries were "ineligible" (dead/migrated).

Remove those ghosts, and the REAL turnout would have been **90.11%**. In a state with massive labor migration, that math is impossible.

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

For 15 years, Bengal’s voter list defied logic.
Between 2011-2024:
🔹 Population Growth: ~12%
🔹 Voter List Growth: **35%** 🚩

The list grew 3x faster than the people. The 2026 SIR has finally hit the reset button, bringing the electorate down to a verified 6.8 Crore.

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

@_YogendraYadav Answer should be given by @Pawankhera , he mention that they are verifying all details since last 2 days means he got the info before that. How this is even possible in this if company doesn’t exist before 4th April.

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

@WellSaidGuru - Many many happy returns of the day.

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

Bande main hai dum, Vande Mataram

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

Phir ek baar Modi Sarkaar

#Modi 3.0
@WellSaidGuru

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

@TimesAlgebraIND NDA -400++

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

@TimesAlgebraIND BJP 333-342

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

NDA - 400+++ is coming. Stay tuned.

@WellSaidGuru

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

Lok Sabha 2024

BJP and NDA will do even better in Punjab and Maharashtra than shown in various exit polls.

BJP will get more then 30% vote share in Punjab and will be the single largest party in terms of number of seats.

NDA will get 40+ seats in Maharashtra with 50%+ vote share.

#BJPAgain #400Paar
@WellSaidGuru

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

@TimesAlgebraIND Telangana- BJP will be the single largest party with minimum 8 seats, it can go up to 10 with big gain in vote share.

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

@TimesAlgebraIND Table will turn in WB this time. Total vote share for BJP will be 5% higher then TMC. BJP will secure minimum 26 seats in WB.

[Vikash Agarwal @Pareto_Capital]

@TimesAlgebraIND NDA will win 393-402 with 49%+ vote share. BJP alone 333-342 with 42% vote share. Total number of vote for BJP will be 27 crore and NDA 31 crore.