Pascal Evans

Head Hereward House School. (Marathon PB 2.44& Eng V50) Fantasy Football (6 x top 1k in FPL;2nd+5th Sky;2nd Metro;4th Mirror;5th Mail best finishes)enjoy chess

[Pascal Evans @PascalEvans2]

Well done to Paul Marshman (Back on the Horse) for being I believe the first player to achieve 6 official top 1k finishes at FPL. He was very close a few years ago as well!

[agadmator @agadmator]

Also, Gukesh won so much rating in the Candidates that he is now higher rated than the World Champion on the Live Ratings List 🔥🤯🇮🇳

[Football Rankings @FootRankings]

Race for extra Champions League spot:
🇩🇪 Germany or 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England?

The race for an extra Champions League spot got extremely interesting last night as Germany got back in the race with late goals from Bayer Leverkusen, while England got in trouble with an awful defeat for Liverpool, which were favoured to win the Europa League.

Let's check the current state of this interesting race.

Italy should claim it next week

Italy are in super position after Atalanta defeated Liverpool last night, they basically secured an extra Champions League spot and are set to mathematically claim it next week.

Their chances of 99.8% to claim the spot will be set at 100% if Fiorentina win their second leg against Viktoria Plzeň, and Atalanta draw with Liverpool.

Though, depending on the other results of English and German clubs, it's likely that Italy will need even less than that to secure an extra Champions League spot next week.

England in danger after Liverpool lost

England were in a strong position after the Champions League matches, but last night's defeat to Liverpool changed that. England are now given a 57.8% chance to secure an extra Champions League spot.

Though West Ham lost as well, Liverpool's defeat was the one to hurt as they were projected to win the Europa League, and now they will most likely be eliminated in the quarterfinals by Atalanta.

With West Ham set to be eliminated by Leverkusen, focus is now moving on the Champions League where England will hope for Arsenal and Manchester City to prevail and reach the semifinals.

Again, the most important match for England could be 2nd leg for Aston Villa as they are favoured to win the Europa Conference League, so elimination by Lille would put a lot of pressure.

Germany saved by Bayer Leverkusen

Though Borussia Dortmund lost, Germany increased their chances to 41.8% as Bayern drew at Arsenal and Bayer Leverkusen followed by defeating direct rival West Ham last night.

Still, it was Atalanta that gave the biggest win for Germany as they stopped Liverpool, while at the same time giving Bayer Leverkusen greater chances of winning the Europa League.

But even Bayer Leverkusen winning the Europa League would probably not be enough for Germany, so their focus is back on Bayern and Dortmund and their second legs in the Champions League.

When it comes to France and Spain, they are both left without chances to secure an extra Champions League spot and both are likely to face mathematical elimination next week.

England - Most likely scenarios

Aston Villa - To win the Europa Conference League

Aston Villa are still favoured to win the Europa Conference League. If they do that with a draw away at Lille on Thursday, followed by a win and a draw in the semifinals against Olympiacos/Fenerbahçe and win in the finals, Aston Villa would add +1.000 points to England.

Liverpool and West Ham - To get eliminated in the Europa League QF

Both Liverpool and West Ham are likely to get eliminated next week, but Liverpool are still favoured to win in the second leg and West Ham might lose the second leg as well. In that case, Liverpool would add +0.250 points to England before being eliminated.

Manchester City - To win the Champions League

Manchester City are still the first favourite for the Champions League title. If they defeat Real Madrid in the second leg on Wednesday, then eliminate Arsenal/Bayern Munich in the semifinals with the win and a draw, and win the finals, Man City would add +1.125 points to England.

Arsenal - To get eliminated in the Champions League QF

It's basically a 50/50 tie, but with Bayern Munich being just the slight favourites to eliminate Arsenal, let's assume that they will do that before penalties. In that case, Arsenal would suffer a defeat (even if in extra time) and wouldn't add any additional points to England.

Total projection for England: 2.375 points added till the end of the season

Aston Villa, +1.000
Liverpool, +0.250
West Ham, +0.000
Man City, +1.125
Arsenal, +0.000

England going from the current 16.750 points to 19.125 points.

Germany - Most likely scenarios

Bayer Leverkusen - To win the Europa League

Bayer Leverkusen are now favoured to win the Europa League. If they go through with a win in the second leg at West Ham, reach the semifinals with a win and a draw against Benfica/Marseille and win in the finals, they would add +1.286 points to Germany.

Bayern Munich - To get eliminated in the Champions League SF

As noted earlier, it's a 50/50 tie, but let's assume that Bayern Munich will defeat and eliminate Arsenal before penalties, and then get eliminated by Real Madrid/Manchester City with only one draw in the process. In that case, Bayern would add +0.571 points to Germany.

Borussia Dortmund - To get eliminated in the Champions League QF

Borussia Dortmund could be a weak link for Germany as they are predicted to get eliminated by Atlético Madrid. They are still slight favourites in the second leg, so let's assume that they are eliminated on penalties, after winning the second leg, and adding +0.286 points to Germany.

Total projection for Germany: 2.143 points added till the end of the season

Bayer Leverkusen, +1.286 points
Bayern Munich, +0.571 points
Borussia Dortmund, +0.286 points

Germany going from the current 16.786 points to 18.929 points.

Conclusion - England are indeed favoured to finish ahead of Germany

So, as noted above, even elimination of Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham shouldn't hurt England in the end if Aston Villa and Manchester City win their competitions.

However, Germany could put a lot of pressure if, besides Bayer Leverkusen, one more club goes a step further, either Bayern Munich eliminating both Arsenal and Manchester City, or Borussia Dortmund eliminating Atlético Madrid and then facing Barcelona/PSG.

All in all, as the awful defeat for Liverpool showed, everything is possible in this race, so Germany will hope for elimination or Aston Villa or Man City, and England for the comebacks in the second legs.

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[Sky News @SkyNews]

"I'm just trying to make sure we're going the right way. Does anyone know?" says @hardestgeezer

Sky's @RobHarris is live in Tunisia trying to keep up with Russ Cook as he attempts to complete the final leg of his "historic" run of the length of Africa

https://t.co/kJ5AzOUEZG

[BBC Press Office @bbcpress]

"No-one had more energy to deliver shows that put a smile on audiences’ faces. They loved him deeply."

Director-General Tim Davie pays tribute to "truly wonderful broadcaster" Steve Wright MBE

https://t.co/vkxaIwhBRz

[Russ Cook @hardestgeezer]

I do

[Russ Cook @hardestgeezer]

Day 278 of running the entire length of Africa. Need your support now more than ever on this one. Appreciate you all🫡

[talkSPORT @talkSPORT]

Offside Not offside

[Henry Winter @henrywinter]

It’s not VAR that’s killing games. It’s the ridiculous amount of time taken. 4 mins for offside? A joke. It’s the absence of communication. It’s the paucity of quality of too many officials. It’s an offence to fans who fork out fortunes. Btw semi-automated offside asap. #FULMUN

[Jon Sopel @jonsopel]

This is a goodie…

[Nick @NickTriggerlips]

Ten minute video on Ref changes and team nearly finalised. re-tweets appreciated
https://t.co/z82PbAIhYa

[OptaJoe @OptaJoe]

1 - Pep Guardiola has won the treble for the second time in his managerial career, while he's the first ever manager to do so with two different clubs (Barcelona in 2008-09 and Manchester City in 2022-23). Greatness. #UCLFinal

[BBC 5 Live Sport @5liveSport]

TREBLE WINNERS 🏆🏆🏆

Celtic (1966-67)
Ajax (1971-72)
PSV (1987-88)
Manchester United (1998-99)
Barcelona (2008-09, 2014-15)
Inter Milan (2009-10)
Bayern Munich (2012-13, 2019-20)

And now Manchester City (2022-23)

#BBCFootball #MCFC #ManCity #UCLFinal

[FPL Form @fplform]

@FPLCruyff74 and @PascalEvans2 are in an elite club of still only 5 managers to have 5 top-1k finishes. 5/8

[FPL Form @fplform]

@JEgersdorff still has the most all-time points 🫡. Sir Edo Nygren has now pipped @FFScout_Mark to 2nd place. @BouncebackSport and @richclarkefpl complete a legendary top 5. 4/8

[Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office @FCDOGovUK]

April Fool's Day is TOMORROW.

[Dan Johnson @DanJohnsonNews]

Conservative MP Charles Walker seems broken by tonight's events - tells @BBCNews he is livid with colleagues

[Pascal Evans @PascalEvans2]

So sad to see such a great Brighton goal ruled out. Technically offside but the headed clearance was going there anywhere.

[Pascal Evans @PascalEvans2]

Got Darwin in for Kane last Sunday. 3m in bank for next week. Bailey v Andreas decision tricky. Suspect Bailey will get one more game. Average start 68 pts

[Ben Griffis @BeGriffis]

The unique role of the goalkeeper in Christian Titz's Magdeburg tactics ✍️

Titz uses his GK, Dominik Reimann, in a revolutionary way… almost as a CB in buildup

This 🧵 will show the key elements, benefits, and risks of Titz's tactic

#EINMALIMMER #Bundesliga